Explaining Russia’s Cautious Turn to Afghanistan
August

05

2026

Explaining Russia’s Cautious Turn to Afghanistan

Read More

Turan Research Center

The Turan Research Center is a non-partisan initiative hosted by the Yorktown Institute dedicated to modern-day developments in the Turkic and Persian worlds - the historic Turan region and beyond. Our aim is to promote a more comprehensive understanding of this understudied region’s politics, culture, and strategic importance to decision makers, academics, and the general public.

Learn More

Analysis

Show More

How the Soviet State Built the Islam It Feared: Religion, Control, and the Roots of Radicalism in Uzbekistan

How the Soviet State Built the Islam It Feared: Religion, Control, and the Roots of Radicalism in Uzbekistan
July

28

2026

Illustration by Dinmukhamed Kairulla.

The standard account blames post-Soviet Uzbekistan's religious conservatism and radicalization on external forces — Gulf money, imported ideology, the collapse of the Soviet order. That account is incomplete. Today's radicalism cannot be explained by the Soviet past alone, but that past matters and is worth naming. The Soviet state did not merely repress Islam; it re-engineered it, dismantling the region's Sufi-Hanafi tradition while cultivating a puritan, anti-traditionalist current it could control — one that later became the raw material for salafism. The instrument was the official clerical apparatus the state itself built. The tragedy is that the most adaptive, moderate forms of Central Asian Islam were destroyed by the very power that claimed to modernize the region.

The Pre-Soviet Inheritance

For most of its history, Central Asian Islam was flexible, syncretic, and plural — which matters because the "traditional Islam of our ancestors" invoked today by both the Uzbek state and its salafi critics bears little resemblance to it. Islam acquired a genuine Turkic base only in the tenth century, when the Karakhanids became the first Turkic dynasty to adopt it, by integration rather than rupture: customary law (adat) survived, doctrine settled into the Hanafi madhhab and Maturidi theology, and Sufism carried the religion into daily life. Conversion required only the shahada; music, dance, figural art, and alcohol were not systematically suppressed, and women went unveiled in Turkic dress. The synthesis associated with al-Ghazali (d. 1111) later consolidated Sunni orthodoxy and folded Sufism into the mainstream while pushing philosophy to the margins — the region became one of the most "Ghazalian" in the Muslim world — yet it preserved the "useful sciences" of mathematics, astronomy, and medicine and never fully reached the villages, where saint cults, ziyarat, and pre-Islamic rites such as Navruz endured.

The decisive mass Islamization of the Turkic population came later still, in Golden Horde Khwarazm of the thirteenth and fourteenth centuries, where Islam spread for the first time in the Turkic language — through Quran translations and a Turkic religious literature — within a strikingly plural environment of Hanafi Sunnism, Mu'tazilite rationalism, and local Sufi orders. This Khwarazmian phase, not the later Timurid court, was the true precursor of the region's cultural flowering. Orthodoxy monopolized public life only in the later eras. The Shaybanids of the sixteenth century still ran a dual legal order inherited from the Chinggisids — sharia governing urban, family, and property matters, the yasa and adatgoverning war, land, and political power — alongside a living court culture of miniature painting, music, and Turkic poetry, with local drinks such as musallas and buza an accepted part of life well into the nineteenth century. Even devout rulers built no theocracy.

This Turkic and Turko-Mongol inheritance — the Karakhanids, the Chinggisid states of Golden Horde Khwarazm and the Chagatai ulus, the Timurids who claimed Chinggisid legitimacy, and the direct Chinggisid descendants of the Shaybanids and Ashtarkhanids — is still not treated as the central engine of Islamization in Central Asia, neither under the Soviet system nor under Islam Karimov nor today. The erasure is not only official; Uzbekistan's radical "new Muslims" reduce the region's Islamic history to the Arab conquest and a cult of the Arab conquerors. The paradox is that in doing so they follow Soviet orientalism, which consistently minimized the Turkic and Turko-Mongol role while elevating the Perso-Arabic strand.

The rupture — religion as an instrument of closure, prohibition, and control — came with the Manghits, who seized real power in Bukhara after Nadir Shah's eighteenth-century invasions and built the region's first openly religious despotism. Through the office of the rais they compelled outward piety while secular learning decayed; the endowment documents of 1786–87 record donors explicitly barring funds from the "useless books" of philosophy, astronomy, and kalam. It was in this late period, not the medieval one, that heavy female seclusion and the urban spread of the paranja took hold.

Russian colonialism then hardened the tradition twice over. The conquest turned Islam into a form of cultural self-defense: the paranja spread further as a marker of separation from Orthodox settlers, everyday religiosity intensified, and preachers cast Russian rule as divine punishment for laxity — so that much of the region's modern strict religiosity dates from the colonial encounter, not the deep past. More consequentially, the empire pioneered the model of managed religion the Soviets would inherit. Its chief architect, the orientalist Nikolai Ostroumov, understood that crushing Islam outright would only provoke resistance, and built control through loyal ulema, mosques, and madrasas — even editing the khutbafor the Russian tsar into a form palatable to local sensibilities. Control through a co-opted clergy rather than outright ban, religious form retained while its content served the state: this became the template the Soviet state would inherit and refine, turning religion into a political tool for managing and mobilizing the population.

The Liberal Islam of the Jadids and Its Destruction by Stalinism

The Russian conquest produced not only conservatism. Its second, equally consequential response was an attempt to rethink Islam itself and adapt it to the modern world. This reform took the name jadidism (from the Arabic usul-i jadid, "new method"), but its content ran far beyond schooling. The jadids sought a modern Muslim society in which Islam coexisted with science, secular education, civil equality, national culture, and openness to the world — one of the first attempts to shape a liberal form of Islam compatible with a modern state and an industrial age.

The movement's intellectual founder was the Crimean Tatar reformer Ismail Gasprinsky, whose ideas spread quickly among the Muslims of the Russian Empire. In Turkestan its leaders were, tellingly, religious figures — imams, mullahs, and theologians — among them Mahmudhoja Behbudi, Munavvar Qari Abdurashidkhanov, Musa Saidjanov, Abduqodir Shakuri, and Ishaqhon Tura Ibrat. Most jadid leaders were not secular intellectuals but clerics trying to reform Islam from within rather than abandon it. Their reforms outran their time. In place of rote memorization they introduced comprehension-based teaching, the natural sciences, history, geography, mathematics, and foreign languages. Shakuri, well before the revolution, opened a girls' school in Samarkand — taught by his wife, Razia — and then merged it with his boys' school into coeducation, to the fury of the local clergy. Munavvar Qari proposed a radical reform of the waqf system, redirecting much of its income to secular education, science, and public need, and organized youth associations modeled on European scouting for civic formation.

One method of jadid reform was to recharge religious vocabulary with secular meaning. Ma'rifat, in Sufi usage the inner knowledge of God, became a byword for education, science, enlightenment, and social modernization. Even inside the region's traditional Muslim states, reform was attempted: in the Khanate of Khiva, the vizier Islam-Khoja built a modern administration, opened secular schools, and pushed broad reforms before conservative clergy and the Russian colonial administration — which saw a modernized Turkestan as a threat to imperial control — combined against him. He was assassinated in 1913, his reforms unfinished. His opponents were the kadimists (from qadim, "old"), traditional clergy who defended the classical madrasa and rejected the new methods; the alliance of conservative clergy and colonial administration repeatedly checked the jadid project.

After Soviet power was established, the jadids treated cooperation with the new regime as a temporary, forced alliance — a way of using the modernization the Soviets promised to prepare Uzbekistan for an eventual independent, secular future of its own. The central figure in preserving the jadid legacy through this period was Faizulla Khojaev, chairman of the government of the Uzbek SSR and himself a student of the jadids. Around him, for a time, the remaining jadid elite and their modernizing project found shelter. Khojaev was arguably the most talented and accomplished statesman in Uzbekistan's modern history, and he might well have become, for Uzbekistan, a figure of the stature of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Stalin's purges cut that path short: he was shot in 1938, and with him the political tradition of jadidism was extinguished for good.

The jadids' influence was nonetheless vast: they stood at the very origins of the modern Uzbek, Tatar, Bashkir, Uyghur, Crimean Tatar, and Kazakh nations. After 1917, many took part in fighting illiteracy, building education, advancing women's rights, and creating a modern national culture — achievements the Soviet state later claimed as its own. Under Stalin, jadidism was almost entirely destroyed: its leaders were shot or died in the camps, and the reform tradition was severed by force. The blow fell not only on the national intelligentsia but on the modernist current within Islam itself. Had that tradition survived, it might have become the natural alternative to both religious fundamentalism and state authoritarianism; the consequences of its destruction are felt across Central Asia still. Today the jadids are officially honored in Uzbekistan, but largely as national heroes — while their central idea, a deep religious reform and the building of an open, secular society, remains underappreciated and, in public memory, largely lost.

Destroying the Compromise

The region's answer to the fall of the Romanov order and the revolution in the metropole was the first secular, democratic state in its history: the Turkestan (Kokand) Autonomy, proclaimed in November 1917 with its capital at Kokand and suppressed after roughly seventy-two days in February 1918. For the first time not only in the region but arguably in world history, a state was formed jointly by Muslim parties, the secular jadid parties, Jewish parties, and with the participation of the Christian church and other non-Muslim peoples. In debate the autonomists advanced laws granting women the vote, guaranteeing private property across all classes, establishing independent secular and religious courts, and introducing parliamentarism, a multiparty system, and quotas for ethnic and religious minorities; a parliament was planned with roughly two-thirds Muslim and one-third guaranteed non-Muslim seats, and five official languages. Separation of church and state was proclaimed. The Bolshevik authorities in Tashkent, meanwhile, barred Muslims from the Tashkent Soviet — the governing body they had created — on the theory that "Muslims are not ready for political activity." The autonomists sought compromise and a treaty with Petrograd; Lenin's Bolsheviks refused, and Stalin, then People's Commissar for Nationalities, organized the bloody suppression — carried out in part by Armenian Dashnak detachments — whose memory scarred the Ferghana Valley and helped drive the region's later radicalization.

The defeat of the Autonomy did not kill the idea of a peaceful, secular coexistence. In 1919 the Provisional Ferghana (or Provisional Turkestan) Government emerged — one of the most forgotten yet most telling attempts at a multi-ethnic political space in Central Asia, and one built by the very "Basmachi" whom Soviet historiography painted as pure religious fanatics. Its composition demolishes the myth. The prime minister and commander-in-chief was Madaminbek; his deputy was the Ural Cossack colonel Konstantin Monstrov; the war minister was General Mukhanov; finance went to the jadid and merchant Khakimzhan Azizkhanov; interior and justice to the jurist Nansberg, of the Jewish community. Muslims, Russians, Tatars, and Jews sat in the cabinet, and the constitution they drafted proclaimed the equality of all Turkestan's inhabitants regardless of religion, origin, ethnicity, or sex — a strikingly modern program for the early twentieth century.

The movement drew not only on Muslim forces but on former tsarist officers, Turkish instructors, urban elites, and peasant associations, and it built a war ministry, an arms-supply system, and a propaganda apparatus; by October 1919 foreign representatives were visiting Madaminbek's residence and some 150-armed detachments operated under its authority. This was not spontaneous partisan activity but an attempt at alternative statehood — which is why the Bolsheviks treated it as mortally dangerous. It destroyed their claim that only Soviet power could unite disparate peoples and lead the "backward East" to modernity. Soviet power then reduced the whole phenomenon to "basmachestvo," folding secular jadids, peasants revolting against requisitioning, national forces, and criminal bands into one label. The substitution concealed an inconvenient fact: Turkestan had produced its own projects of modernization, secular statehood, and interfaith coexistence, against the Bolsheviks rather than thanks to them. Nansberg is again telling: in negotiations with the Red Army he declared that the rebels had nothing to repent, since the rising was caused by the abuses of Soviet officials — words entered into the protocols that amounted to an indictment of the early regime. The Bolsheviks used the talks as a tactical pause; after promises of compromise, Madaminbek was killed and the blame shifted to other commanders, deliberately stoking war within the resistance.

Radicalization accelerated only after the moderates were destroyed. War communism and forced requisitions hit the rural majority hardest, and many later risings were social and economic rather than religious, though Soviet historiography absorbed them into the "Basmachi" image. The regime leaned on the most brutal former field commanders: Hamrakul Tursunkulov, once in the anti-Soviet forces, became a pillar of the system and a three-time Hero of Socialist Labor whose collective farm ran on semi-feudal violence — farmers whipped over poor cotton harvests — while he took part in destroying the national intelligentsia. The state that manufactured the image of "religious fanatics" relied on the most radical elements when they were willing to serve.

The destruction of the moderates was the catalyst for a catastrophe later hidden behind the "Basmachi" label. Most of the armed risings of the early 1920s were driven by famine and war communism, and they turned savage. By 1919 Turkestan's grain deficit reached nearly 100 million poods. Where in 1916 the inner Russian provinces had supplied 22 million poods of grain in exchange for cotton, in 1917 they sent only 1.9 million, and by 1919 deliveries had all but ceased; Turkestan procured only 5.3 million poods — a few kilograms per person per year. The resulting famine killed on the order of a million people. The regime went on treating Turkestan as a raw-material and military base. Up to 100,000 Red Army soldiers were fed locally, and crops were destroyed in combat; a TurkCIK commission found that in September–October 1921 more than 80,000 farms were ruined and over 227,000 people were starving. Amid a fuel shortage the authorities burned food — hundreds of thousands of poods of vegetable oil as locomotive fuel, and in the Aral region even dried fish and oilcake — while a starving Turkestan hosted some 500,000 famine refugees from Russia in 1921–22, Moscow exported grain and fish to the Volga, and a special "hunger tax" was levied. A region on the edge of collapse was made a resource for the center.

Even parts of the Bolshevik leadership grasped the damage. In 1922, Sergo Ordzhonikidze wrote to Stalin that the violent breaking of the local order had brought Turkestan to a "real crisis," rejected the myth of the Basmachi as bandits cut off from the people, and demanded a full revision of policy (RGASPI f. 2, op. 1, d. 23181). More striking still, Mikhail Tukhachevsky, then chief of staff of the Red Army, acknowledged in his 1926 article that cotton confiscation and the food crisis had doomed Ferghana to famine, forced the population back from cotton to grain, produced unemployment he put at nearly 700,000, and created "a broad base for feeding the Basmachi detachments." Even Soviet commanders had to concede that mass resistance was fed above all by an economic catastrophe of the regime's own making.

Stalin's Cynical Neo-Imperial Islamization

By the start of the Second World War the regime had crushed the traditional religious elite, the heaviest blow falling on Sufi networks — ishans, sheikhs, dervishes, brotherhoods — seen as the most dangerous part of Muslim society. The dervishes drew particular hatred: many still wandered the towns and villages reciting the medieval poet Mashrab, reinterpreted against Soviet power. Mashrab himself was effectively banned, then "Sovietized," his image torn from its religious and Sufi context. The regime destroyed not only individual clerics but the social fabric of Sufism as a mass phenomenon.

The war forced a reversal. The German invasion was a political and moral shock as much as a military one; the leadership knew that much of the population felt no loyalty to a regime that had just delivered collectivization, famine, and terror, and for Central Asians the memory of the red terror, the destruction of the Autonomy, and the anti-religious campaign was fresh. Stalin turned to religion as a mobilizing tool. Pressure from the Western allies to soften religious policy is sometimes cited, though its weight is disputed; the pivot itself was unmistakable. In 1943 the Spiritual Administration of the Muslims of Central Asia and Kazakhstan (SADUM) was created — largely a revival of the tsarist model of controlling Islam, a Stalinist reincarnation of the imperial system. Islam was not freed but harnessed: SADUM issued fatwas calling on Muslims to defend the "Soviet motherland," abandoning in practice the separation of religion and state that Soviet law proclaimed. Soon the state ran the hajj under full control and at its own expense as foreign-policy propaganda; pilgrims were to project "free Soviet Islam" and even distributed the works of Stalin, Lenin, and Marx in Arabic.

This fit the broader postwar Stalinist turn toward state conservatism, great-power ideology, and neo-imperial forms. The regime was retreating from many early-Soviet social experiments — reintroducing single-sex schooling, muting the old rhetoric of women's emancipation, elevating the traditional family and "family values" — and its Islamic policy moved in the same direction, ever more closely resembling the pre-revolutionary imperial system. After the war SADUM's significance grew as decolonization produced new states across Asia and the Middle East. Understanding that direct export of communist ideology to the Muslim world would be difficult, the leadership treated SADUM as an instrument of soft power — an Islamic shell for Soviet interests — and turned Uzbekistan into a "showcase of the Soviet East," displayed to Egyptian president Gamal Abdel Nasser, the Shah of Iran, King Zahir Shah of Afghanistan, and Indonesian president Sukarno, among others, as proof that Islam could coexist with socialism. Under Khrushchev, the Cold War contest in Asia and Africa widened this use of Islam. Whole fields of scholarship were bent to foreign policy: "Baburology" grew out of the contest for influence in India and Pakistan, recasting Babur as a bridge to South Asia, while the official concept of "Tajik civilization" formed around Bobojon Gafurov and Boris Litvinsky. The Mir-i Arab madrasa, reopened under Stalin, was kept deliberately weak; the aim was a controlled clergy, not a strong Muslim elite. After the Twentieth Party Congress, the thaw brought more mosques and tolerance of folk rites — hatmi Quran, circumcision, beshik-toy — presented as proof of freedom, while suspicion of Sufism and independent networks persisted.

A document of 25 March, 1954 lays the function bare. Bylined to Mufti Eshon Babakhan and titled "On the Situation of the Muslim Religion and Muslims in the Soviet Union," it was in fact prepared along the Sovinformbureau line for the foreign press, cleared by the Central Committee of the Uzbek Communist Party, and routed through the commissioner of the Council for the Affairs of Religious Cults. Its very routing — Moscow, the religious-affairs council, the Uzbek leadership — shows the mufti functioning not as an independent authority but as a legitimating figure through whom the state addressed the Muslim world. Its structure is pure Cold War propaganda: persecution claims dismissed as the slander of "warmongers"; Article 124 of the constitution cited; the four spiritual administrations, the mosques, Mir-i Arab, the hajj, and foreign delegations listed as proof of freedom — a catalogue that in fact documents a strictly controlled "official Islam." The hajj section contrasts a 1912 tsarist pilgrimage with a 1945 Soviet one. The second half becomes an apologia for the Soviet order — industry, irrigation, literacy, schools, medicine — voiced through the mufti and backed with hadith, while erasing the red terror, the destruction of the Autonomy, and the repression of jadids, ulema, and Sufis. It closes with a "struggle for peace" appeal against the West. Freedom of conscience here is a slogan; the aim was to make Islam a managed instrument of Soviet foreign policy.

In 1963 the line hardened. At a plenum of the Uzbek Communist Party Central Committee, Sharaf Rashidov, then the republic's leader, announced the end of the Khrushchev thaw on religion and national culture, casting religious revival — open mosques, the return of nikah, hatmi Quran, folk rites, occasional wearing of the paranja — as a threat, and lumping it with Baptists, Orthodox believers, "Western influence," and the strengthening of Uzbek language and national consciousness. The reality was more complex. This was largely everyday folk Islam, not a revanche, and the paranja had effectively vanished after the war for demographic and economic reasons — wartime male losses and the need for women's labor — so late demonstrative wearing was symbolic. The deeper problem was that rejection of reforms was not necessarily fanaticism: even useful, secular reforms carried a colonial taint because they came from a regime associated in popular memory with terror and collectivization. What in Kemal's Turkey or Bourguiba's Tunisia read as a national modernizing project read in Soviet Central Asia as an alien will imposed from above. The 1963 plenum closed the opening created by the Twentieth Congress and recast national feeling as a political danger, preparing the conflicts of the later 1960s.

Those conflicts were sharpened by the 1966 Tashkent earthquake. Many locals lost their homes while Russian construction workers — a large share of them convicts, in an economy that ran on prison labor — stayed on in apartments they had built. Tension rose. The imam and intellectual Alikhantura Soguni, formerly a leader of the East Turkestan Republic and then living in Tashkent, held majlises on history and religion that drew wide, unofficial audiences. The state tried to meet the demand: the academician Buribay Akhmedov began a limited rehabilitation of the Shaybanids, and Ibrahim Muminov — from the jadid milieu, a student of Fitrat and Rashidov's father-in-law — fitted Timur into the Soviet frame with the durable myth that Timur freed Maverannahr from the Horde, a story built to fold Russian and Uzbek history into one anti-Mongol-yoke narrative. In 1969 came the film O'tkan kunlar, the first screen adaptation of jadid literature, from Qodiriy's novel; the same year a brawl between Russian workers and Uzbeks at the Pakhtakor stadium escalated into street protests in which Soguni's sons were prominent. Russian accounts spin conspiracy theories around Rashidov's rivals or "foreign forces," but this was social protest — anger after the thaw's freedoms were granted and then crudely withdrawn — with the earthquake and housing redistribution as catalysts, and the Soguni family voicing national rather than religious feeling.

Interest in religion surged all the same. Partial liberalization, SADUM, and the reopened Mir-i Arab raised expectations the system could neither satisfy nor control: Mir-i Arab's instruction was limited and weak, admission narrow, demand rising. Unofficial and semi-official hujras sprang up teaching Quran and the basics of the faith, most densely in the Ferghana Valley, and modern scholars note they often taught better than Mir-i Arab. Crucially, most of these 1960s hujras were Sufi — the decisive contrast with the Karimov era and the post-2016 period, when comparable circles are often salafi.

The Lost Future of Central Asian Islam

After the war, surviving Muslim intellectuals faced the question of how to preserve religion in a world where the state had again weaponized it. Their answer was neither armed struggle nor radicalism but a "parallel Islam" — a religious life outside politics that preserved identity, morality, and cultural memory. This was not mere survival or fear of the regime; it was a model of how Islam might coexist with a secular state without destabilizing it, which is why the legacy still matters. It appears most vividly in three different but kindred figures: Alikhantura Soguni, Domla Mavlana Hindustani, and Gulam-ata Normat. All three sought an Islam parallel to the state, neither dissolving into it nor colliding with it — a search now unexpectedly relevant to Muslim communities in Europe and the United States. The tragedy is that both Soviet and later post-Soviet Uzbek policy destroyed precisely these moderate, adaptive forms, treating almost any independent Islamic activity as a threat and weakening the milieus that tried to reconcile Islam with modernity — a lost opportunity now visible as young Central Asians turn to imported, more radical, and culturally alien models.

Soguni's Tarihi Muhammadiya is among the most unusual Islamic works produced in Soviet Central Asia. Often read merely as a biography of the Prophet, it is in fact a modern Islamic narrative for a reader living in an industrial, secular world. Soguni abandoned the heavy medieval form, the complex isnads, and the scholastic language for an accessible moral-historical account aimed at a mass audience — a choice that mattered because decades of Soviet policy had cut the region off from its own intellectual tradition, Arabic literacy gone and classical texts increasingly opaque. He preserved Islam not by returning to the medieval model but by creating a new, more rational idiom, shifting the emphasis from early political history to the Prophet as moral exemplar — justice, ethics, patience, conduct, inner religiosity — which let Islam survive without direct confrontation with the state. He continued the jadid line of religion through national languages: a Central Asian Muslim could understand his faith in his mother tongue without obligatory Arabization, a quiet marker of Islamic secularity. In this the work anticipated twenty-first-century debates about an Islam that keeps its identity outside political radicalism.

Gulam-ata Normatov was one of the most distinctive religious figures of late-Soviet and early post-Soviet Ferghana — a war veteran said to have lived past a hundred, dying around 2000 — whose authority came not from official structures but from the living folk milieu of the valley: the personal authority of the teacher, the memory of the community, the veneration of the pir, and a link to the local Sufi tradition. His line ran back to the Yasawiyya, an old Turkic Sufi tradition thought by the twentieth century to be nearly extinct, which makes him significant not as a village saint but as a possible last bearer of the old Turkic Islamic culture rooted in Ferghana — local, folk, Sufi, tolerant, neither imported nor politicized. After the war the valley could still have grown its own organic, moderate tradition, and figures like Gulam-ata showed it might have become a center of rooted, moderate Islam rather than a hotbed of tension. Soviet policy, including the de facto encouragement of salafist tendencies discussed below, struck precisely this tradition.

Mavlavi Hindustani (Muhammadjan Rustamov, 1892–1989) was among the major Central Asian theologians of the century, preserving the classical Hanafi tradition through arrests and exile; educated in Kokand, Bukhara, and Kashmir, he had a depth of scholarship rare in Soviet Central Asia. His Quran tafsir — the unique original held by the Islamic-studies scholar Bakhtiyar Babadjanov, one of the few researchers of Hindustani's legacy — is, in the account of Hindustani's students in the region, a near-unique case in which the ideas of Sayyid Qutb, the Egyptian ideologue and leading theorist of the Muslim Brotherhood, received a full theological answer not through fatwas or pamphlets but through a complete Quran commentary, on the same plane Qutb used. The Iron Curtain, Soviet isolation, and the absence of Arabic and English translations kept the work almost unknown; the world came to know Qutb but not his deepest opponent. Without naming his adversary, Hindustani in effect refuted Qutb point by point. Where Qutb turned the Quran into an ideology of political transformation, Hindustani returned it to classical theology. On jahiliyya, Qutb extended it to modern societies as a whole, opening the path to delegitimizing existing states, while Hindustani kept it a specific pre-Islamic historical condition, so that an imperfect or sinful society did not thereby fall outside Islam. On takfir, Qutbism widened the charge of unbelief to whole societies and states, while Hindustani held the classical line that a person becomes an unbeliever only by conscious denial of the faith's foundations, not by sin — blocking the conversion of religion into a mechanism of civil war. On Quran 5:44 — "whoever does not judge by what God has revealed, they are the unbelievers" — Qutb read a universal principle delegitimizing non-sharia systems, while Hindustani, following classical tafsir, attended to the occasion of revelation and the sequence 5:44–47, where the same act is also called zulm (injustice) and fisq (transgression), so that the Quran itself distinguishes unbelief from sin. On jihad, Qutb pushed it beyond defense into a tool of political change, while Hindustani kept the classical, condition-bound reading, showing through asbab an-nuzul that the "sword verse" (9:5) concerned a specific conflict with treaty-breaking tribes, not an eternal command. From inside the tradition rather than from secularism or liberalism, he built a theological system limiting the politicization of the Quran, expansive takfir, and ideologized jihad — decades before the global radical wave. Today his legacy is deliberately sidelined in Uzbekistan; some attribute this to the influence of the late Sheikh Muhammad Sodiq Muhammad Yusuf and his students and the "new Muslims" promoting their own political Islam — a claim addressed in the companion article.

From the 1960s and 1970s Hindustani built a network of unofficial hujras that became the only independent center of Islamic education in the whole Soviet Union, drawing students from the Volga, the North and South Caucasus, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan who came for classical theology, fiqh, and Sufi ethics, not political Islam. Yet the system treated Hindustani as a problem and, tellingly, favored salafism over the Sufism he taught, judging the latter more dangerous and less controllable. He was the first in the region to polemicize openly against wahhabism, and effectively put the term into wide religious circulation, but the state did not back him. Some now cast him as a founder of Central Asian political Islam — an obvious absurdity, since he was its most consistent theological opponent. His tafsir and his anti-salafi polemics, including surviving audio recordings, remain untranslated into English and unknown to global Islamic debate, though amid Europe's integration crises and the rise of political Islam they could ground a serious platform for training imams and community leaders — an internal Islamic mechanism against extremism rather than an imposed secular answer.

Salafism Under the Red Flag

The Soviet transformation of Islam was not merely repressive but structurally engineering. Having destroyed the traditional centers of learning, the state created in Tashkent a new "laboratory" where, amid a vacuum of authority, a line of religious purism took hold around Shami-damulla at-Tarabulusi — a native of Tripoli, al-Azhar–educated, expelled from the Ottoman Empire under Sultan Abd al-Hamid II for "Wahhabi" views, who reached Tashkent in 1919 with the backing of the Russian consul in Kashgar. His program was radical for the local context: rejection of Hanafi taqlid, denial of Sufi literature and practice, exclusive appeal to Quran and hadith (Bukhari, Muslim), and the formation of underground Ahl-i hadith circles as an alternative education system. This anti-traditionalist Islam proved functionally useful to Soviet power: under the banner of fighting "superstition," his followers joined campaigns against the region's sacred infrastructure, including the documented participation of Shami-damulla and his students in destroying mazars such as the Shaykh Khovendi Tahur complex in Tashkent. The rupture was institutional as much as architectural — the fabric of local religious legitimacy, built on shrines, ziyarats, and Sufi chains of transmission, was dismantled.

With the classical ulema suppressed or driven into exile, Shami-damulla's aggressive style won rapid influence, and his followers were tagged "wahhabilar." The key channel of institutionalization was his student Ziyauddin Babakhan, later mufti of SADUM, through whom Quran-hadith minimalism entered official Islam: SADUM fatwas leaned on the texts of revelation while displacing the local Hanafi tradition. Under the "Soviet Islam" label, the institutionalized model moved ever closer to salafi-wahhabi purism — rejecting urf and adat, criticizing Sufism, "purifying" religion of later accretions — which suited Soviet ideology, since it let the state strike at the most resilient forms of religiosity through delegitimating from within rather than outright ban. Currents such as Ahl-i Quran ("uzun soqollilar") emerged and survived to perestroika, and a new generation of ulema began politicizing the agenda, moving from "purifying Islam" toward ideas of Islamic order and even proto-state models such as "Musulmonobod." Traditionalists like Hindustani were squeezed out, unable to resist effectively, above all in the Ferghana Valley.

The official campaign against "non-Islamic customs" reproduced the classical salafi-wahhabi agenda almost verbatim, targeting Sufism, the cult of saints, ziyarats, funeral rites, Quran reading at graves, mawlids, ritual meals, folk medicine, and amulets — the whole layer of local Hanafi everyday Islam. Presented as a fight against "survivals," it was a deep attempt to dismantle the traditional order; SADUM fatwas declared many local practices bid'a, arguing not from the Maverannahr Hanafi tradition but mainly from salafi authors such as Ibn Taymiyya, though without acknowledging that these were the sources. The fatwas issued from the official, state-controlled muftiate, and research shows many SADUM decisions reflected the demands of Soviet religious-affairs and party bodies. The paradox is stark: an atheist state used religious purism to destroy traditional Islam from within, physically eliminating madrasas, waqfs, and independent ulema while SADUM supplied the theological "proof" that much of the local culture was un-Islamic. Soviet pseudo-secularization and salafi purism became temporary allies against the Sufi-Hanafi majority.

Mufti Ziyauddin Babakhan — Shami-damulla's student turned head of SADUM — made his teacher's ideas the official line; many researchers effectively treat him as the region's first official wahhabi. Under him, anti-Sufi and puritan positions spread through madrasas, fatwas, Friday sermons, and religious literature, and his intellectual heirs took key posts in the religious apparatus, continuing the displacement of local tradition in the name of "official Islam." Babakhan embodied the paradox of Soviet Islam: a fully embedded official used for international diplomacy and population control, who simultaneously used his administrative position to advance his own theological program. The state got a manageable mufti; the mufti got the resource to push out Sufi and traditional culture.

By the end of the Soviet period the purist milieu cultivated inside SADUM began moving from theology into politics. These were not "reformers" in the jadid sense; they did not seek to reconcile Islam with modern education, science, and a secular state but demanded a maximally literal, "purified" Islam, rejecting the local Hanafi-Maturidi tradition, the cult of saints, and Sufism. Studies of Hizb ut-Tahrir in Uzbekistan show this environment became the ideological bridge between late-Soviet "official Islam" and the openly political Islamism of the 1990s; much of the new religious intelligentsia came from the followers of salafi-oriented ulema formed inside Soviet religious infrastructure, and they prepared the ground for foreign Islamic parties and caliphate concepts. Hizb ut-Tahrir's ideologues, like other radicals inside Uzbek society, built on the same logic earlier promoted in the Ahl-i hadith circles and parts of SADUM's fatwas — rejecting local tradition and Hanafi flexibility for literalism — but during perestroika, once freedom of conscience became real, they went further, raising not only the "purity of Islam" but the question of the state, political power, and a caliphate. The spread of these ideas owed something to the Middle East, but the Soviet system had prepared the ground by destroying local Islam, discrediting traditional ulema, and backing the harshest forms of purism as a weapon against Sufism and folk Islam. Late-Soviet SADUM history was thus not an "Islamic revival" but the beginning of a deep erosion of the region's own tradition whose effects persist.

This was the essence of the cynical imperial Islamization. The state sought to make religion a managed instrument — at home to police religious life and fight independent tradition, abroad to display "religious freedom" in the Soviet Union. After 2016, amid the Mirziyoyev reforms, came a partial rehabilitation of late-Soviet official-Islam figures, including Shamsiddin Babakhan — whose ties to salafism and to Soviet structures were the reason his name was passed over in silence under Karimov — with a registered memorial fund and an image as a "distinguished religious figure". The approach is dangerous because it refuses to diagnose the disease. Today's radicalism has many roots — social, economic, political, international — but one of the most important remains Soviet policy toward Islam, the work of SADUM, and the systematic promotion of anti-Sufi, salafi-oriented purism inside official Islam. Many of today's problems are not a sudden import from outside but a direct continuation of processes begun in the Soviet era.

The Cultural Foundations of Religious Conservatism

Beyond religious policy, the Soviet model built a conservative cultural substrate through language policy, an agrarian economy, urbanization, and a specific humanities environment. The linguist and orientalist Evgeny Polivanov, on the authorities' commission, built literary Uzbek on an urban dialect he himself called "Iranized," nullifying the jadids' language policy of the 1920s and 1930s and branding them pan-Turkists — before becoming a victim of Stalin's terror himself. The 1956 orthographic norms entrenched a bookish, Perso-Arabized model, fixing the Arabic-Persian lexical layer as the standard. Two paths had been possible — radical Turkicization of vocabulary, as in Turkey, or fixing the existing literary layer — and the second was chosen. The language of high culture became bookish and elitist rather than colloquial, tilting toward poetry, since archaisms and high style suit verse while prose needs simplicity and social concreteness. The system pushed literature toward poetry and toward medieval, often religiously rooted classics, the religious now recoded as "folk." The gap between spoken and literary language widened into cultural distance, and the difficulty of the literary language inflated the role of philology over philosophy and sociology — a double blow, since the humanities were already smothered by Marxism-Leninism. The reason a secular regime chose this is plain: an inherited fear of pan-Turkism, traceable to the Russo-Turkish wars, that under Stalin became policy. Uzbeks — the most numerous Turkic people and the backbone of the jadid movement and anti-Soviet resistance — were thereby separated from other Turkic peoples through linguistic distinctiveness.

The agrarian structure reinforced this. Built into the Soviet economy as a cotton producer, Uzbekistan stayed overwhelmingly rural; schoolchildren and students were pulled into cotton campaigns, degrading education, and rural schools, where most Uzbeks studied, were funded far below urban Russian-language ones. The era's spirit was captured by the academician Erkin Yusupov's notorious "city-kishlak" project, which held that Uzbeks were suited to a special cotton-bound urbanization — apartment blocks beside the fields — an ideological justification of a monoculture that perestroika would call "cotton slavery." A literature-centric intelligentsia followed. Uzbek stood below Russian, treated not as the language of modern knowledge but of the past or of marginal journalism, so philologists often doubled as journalists. Philology was considered ideologically safe while philosophy, sociology, and political theory were watched, so the humanities intelligentsia formed mainly from philologists, poets, and literature teachers, reinforcing the Arabo-Persian poetic tradition and the canon over modernization; literary studies was also the only field one could pursue in Uzbek without switching to Russian. The propiska system and administrative limits kept Tashkent, Ferghana, and Samarkand relatively closed, Russian-oriented (and in Samarkand also Tajik-oriented) spaces, blocking a broad Uzbek-language urban intelligentsia. The result favored preservation over innovation — and this intelligentsia became a pillar of the Karimov regime.

The contrast with Turkey is instructive. Atatürk's radical reform — Latinization and the large-scale purging of Arabo-Persian vocabulary — broke with the Ottoman poetic tradition, built a new literature on colloquial language, and made the novel and urban prose central, opening a platform for social and political debate and a secular intelligentsia. In Uzbekistan, the literary language kept its tie to classical poetry while the agrarian structure limited a broad urban intelligentsia. Only under perestroika and glasnost did natural scientists — not the literature-centric humanities intelligentsia — come to the fore, leading the Aral Committee and the Birlik movement, while the humanities and arts produced only a handful of dissidents against hundreds who worked within the official system. The managed counter-party Erk, created with Party involvement, then split the intelligentsia and weakened its modernizing wing. The Soviet social model in the republic functioned as an anti-liberal conservative project that slowed the development the jadids had once accelerated, and the conservative environment it produced became one factor in the rise of traditionalist and religious-conservative ideas in independent Uzbekistan.

How the Future Explosion Was Prepared

In the 1980s the system began destroying itself. Under Andropov, Moscow sought scapegoats rather than reform; corruption was Soviet-wide, but Uzbekistan was chosen as the showcase culprit in the "cotton affair" and "Uzbek affair," and with it came renewed pressure on Uzbek culture, Islamic tradition, and national identity. Against the backdrop of Afghanistan, Iran's revolution, and fear of an "Islamic awakening," the leadership returned to the old line in a new form: suppress traditional Islam, Sufism, and local culture while cultivating a loyal, fully controlled Islam. Three secret decrees followed — on isolating "reactionary" Muslim clergy, strengthening atheist education, and intensifying the fight against anti-Soviet sentiment among clergy — extending the SADUM line but striking wider, so that Navruz, folk holidays, traditional dress such as the do'ppi and khan-atlas, Uzbek theater, the classical Shashmaqom, the bakhshi tradition, traditional dance, and even the literary Uzbek language fell under suspicion.

The Uzbek Communist Party ideology secretary Rano Abdullaeva played a central role. Recent attempts — mainly by pro-Russian Uzbek activists and some journalists — to cast her as a fighter against extremism invert the record. In practice, she continued the strategy of managed Islamization, turning already-formed salafist circles against traditional Islam and Sufism, and in closed memos to Moscow declaring war on Sufi practice and much of Uzbekistan's historical culture — provoking protest from both traditional Muslims and the secular national intelligentsia and turning even apolitical people into national protesters. Young imams formed in the milieu of Mufti Shamsiddin Babakhan — above all Abduvali qori Mirzaev and his students, such as Obid qori — openly backed the campaign against bid'a, Sufism, and folk Islam. Mirzaev had himself studied under Hindustani, but under the influence of the milieu that Babakhan and his circle had built, he drifted from Hindustani's teaching, and the break between the two men eventually became final. Abdullaeva gave Mirzaev's circle a wide public platform, especially in the Ferghana Valley, including the Andijan Friday mosque. The blow fell on the legacy of Mavlana Hindustani and the moderate Ferghana tradition. This atmosphere, created by the ideological structures of the CPSU and Uzbek Party Central Committees, later helped produce the region's radical groups, and Abduvali qori Mirzaev is considered by a number of researchers one of the key figures shaping the radical and terrorist currents that became the basis of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.

A parallel campaign targeted the Sufi heritage. The archaeologist Akhmadali Askarov, on party instruction and personally from Abdullaeva, worked to "expose false shrines" and destroy Sufi mazars, seeking to erase the symbols of folk Islam and the society's historical memory. The policy largely backfired: people did not support the war on ziyarats, and destroyed graves were often quickly rebuilt. But the long-term effect was heavy — traditional, tolerant Islam weakened while harsher, politicized currents gained organizational experience, publicity, and a sense of historic mission. As perestroika began and Soviet institutions — Komsomol, party, police — lost authority, new informal organizations arose. The first in Uzbekistan was Adolat, at the outset a sports-and-street youth group formed by ex-athletes to keep order amid the collapse of the police; in the Ferghana Valley such protest increasingly fused with religious rhetoric and the search for "Islamic justice." These groups did not begin religious. Abduvali qori Mirzaev's influence drove their salafization and radicalization, and through them that of much of the region's youth.

The Birth of Post-Soviet Islam

In the late 1980s Soviet Islamic policy entered a new phase. Perestroika did not mean abandoning control; the KGB tried to rebuild it for new conditions. After the events of 1989, Mufti Shamsiddin Babakhanov — third generation of a dynasty tied to the security services and foreign-trained under state control — was removed. Around this network, after the war, Bahrom Ibragimov trained clergy for work in the Middle East under cover of religious education and international Islamic contacts; after 2016, Russian propaganda and pro-Russian circles tried to make him a "hero," though by this account his role was to build an intelligence network drawn from the clergy, capable of operating across Asia and the Middle East and of monitoring the secular national intelligentsia.

By the late 1980s the model was consuming itself: the very milieu SADUM had cultivated turned on the Babakhanovs, accusing the mufti of corruption and moral decay — a sign both of SADUM's internal crisis and of the breakdown of "controlled Islam." Tellingly, he was removed but not repressed; the system had lost the Stalinist capacity to solve such problems by terror. In 1989 the young and politically ambitious Muhammad Sodiq Muhammad Yusuf was advanced — ambitious in the sense of a man maneuvering for power and position, not a judgment on his ability. Often presented as a symbol of "Islamic revival," his rise was in fact part of a late-Soviet political strategy: the KGB and union leadership saw a convenient figure to manage a rapidly radicalizing milieu, calm religious circles, and counterbalance the secular national-democratic opposition, above all Birlik. To the end the system treated secular ideas, national democracy, and pan-Turkism — not religious radicalism — as the main threat, and again used religion against the secular opposition. Muhammad Sodiq himself was formed within the gradual salafization of the official clergy under the Babakhanovs; a Ferghana native, he set himself against Hindustani's moderate model, and around his generation the new post-Soviet religious milieu would form. The claim that he or Karimov initiated the late-1980s liberalization — the return of Navruz, the first free hajjs, the easing of restrictions — is false; these were part of Gorbachev's perestroika, decided in Moscow. But within that liberalization the consequences of all prior policy surfaced: by the USSR's end Uzbekistan had a generation of religious figures raised amid ideological crisis, hidden salafization, and decades of security-service experiments with Islam — and that generation would define the country's religious life after 1991.

Conclusion

The history of Islam in Central Asia has, in effect, still not been written. Existing accounts either mythologize the past or reduce it to an "eternal Islamic tradition," ignoring the region's internal complexity and change. Against civilizational theories, including Huntington's, there is no single monolithic "Islamic civilization": the Islam of Central Asia differed radically from that of the Gulf, the Gulf from North Africa, North Africa from the Volga, the Caucasus, or the Ottoman world — and Central Asia itself wore very different Islamic faces across the centuries. Even in the medieval period sharia long held no monopoly; the region knew secular culture, religious plurality, coexisting legal systems, and relatively moderate forms of Islamic life. Only later — after Nadir Shah's invasion, and especially under the Manghits and then under tsarist Russia — did orthodoxy monopolize public life. This matters for today's Uzbekistan, where the dispute over whether the constitution or sharia stands higher grows more frequent: the historical record is far more complex than the claim that "establishing sharia rule is a return to our roots."

The Soviet period was decisive. The state not only fought religion but made Islam an instrument of political control, geopolitics, and ideological management, seeding the very processes — the spread of salafist tendencies, the destruction of local moderate traditions — that still shape the region's religious life. Without grasping them, neither modern Uzbekistan nor the wider region's religious dynamics can be understood. Hence the renewed relevance of the jadid legacy, the Turkestan Autonomy, and Hindustani's theological model — each an attempt to build a modern, moderate, intellectual Islamic tradition compatible with a modern state and an open society. Ideas once unwanted in Central Asia may now matter not only for the region but for Europe and the United States, where the integration of Muslim communities grows more pressing. This work is both a reinterpretation and a warning: many mistakes of Soviet Islamic policy are being repeated in Uzbekistan today, which makes the historical record a question not of scholarship but of the region's future.

Anvar Nazirov is an Uzbek historian, professor, and political commentator. He has appeared on and written for various international outlets including RFE/RL, The Moscow Times, and Voice of America.

Works Cited

Agzamkhodjaev, Saidakbar. Turkiston Mukhtoriyati [Turkestan Autonomy]. Tashkent: Tashkent Islamic University, 2006.

Alimdzhanov, B. A., and A. T. Zamonov. "Ne Timurom edinym: ignorirovanie Shibanidov v ramkakh kontseptsii 'tsentralizovannogo gosudarstva'" [Not by Timur Alone: The Neglect of the Shibanids within the Concept of a "Centralized State"]. Golden Horde Review 13, no. 1 (2025).

Allworth, Edward A. Uzbek Literary Politics. Mouton & Co., The Hague, 1964.

Allworth, Edward A. The Modern Uzbeks: From the Fourteenth Century to the Present: A Cultural History. Hoover Institution Press, Stanford, 1990.

Adeeb Khalid. The Politics of Muslim Cultural Reform: Jadidism in Central Asia. University of California Press, Berkeley, 1998.

Khalid, Adeeb. Making Uzbekistan: Nation, Empire, and Revolution in the Early USSR. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2015.

Babadjanov, B. M. "O deyatel'nosti 'Khizb at-Takhrir al-islami' v Uzbekistane" [On the Activity of Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami in Uzbekistan]. In Islam na postsovetskom prostranstve: vzglyad iznutri [Islam in the Post-Soviet Space: A View from Within], edited by A. Malashenko and M. B. Olcott, 154–169. Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center, 2001.

Babadjanov, B. M. "O fetvakh SADUM protiv 'neislamskikh obychaev'" [On SADUM's Fatwas against "Non-Islamic Customs"]. In Islam na postsovetskom prostranstve: vzglyad iznutri [Islam in the Post-Soviet Space: A View from Within], edited by A. Malashenko and M. B. Olcott, 170–184. Moscow: Carnegie Moscow Center, 2001.

Babadjanov, B. M., A. K. Muminov, and M. B. Olcott. "Mukhammadzhan Khindustani (1892–1989) i religioznaya sreda ego epokhi (predvaritel'nye razmyshleniya o formirovanii 'sovetskogo islama' v Srednei Azii)" [Muhammadjan Hindustani (1892–1989) and the Religious Milieu of His Era: Preliminary Reflections on the Formation of "Soviet Islam" in Central Asia]. Vostok (Oriens), no. 5 (2004).

Central State Archive of the Republic of Uzbekistan (TsGA RUz), Fond 17, Opis 1, Delo 296, List 536.

Central State Archive of the Republic of Uzbekistan (TsGA RUz), Fond 17, Opis 1, Delo 1197a, Listy 19–21.

Central State Archive of the Republic of Uzbekistan (TsGA RUz), Fond 22, Opis 1, Delo 54, Listy 15–16.

Central State Archive of the Republic of Uzbekistan (TsGA RUz), Fond 25, Opis 1, Delo 483, List 567.

Central State Archive of the Republic of Uzbekistan (TsGA RUz), Fond 41, Opis 1, Delo 32, List 68.

Chekhovich, O. D. "O nekotorykh voprosakh istorii Srednei Azii XVIII–XIX vekov" [On Certain Questions of the History of Central Asia in the 18th–19th Centuries]. Voprosy Istorii, no. 3 (1956): 84–96.

Khasanov, M. K. "'Kokandskaya avtonomiya' i nekotorye ee uroki" ["The Kokand Autonomy" and Some of Its Lessons]. Obshchestvennye Nauki v Uzbekistane, no. 2 (1990).

Istoriya narodnogo khozyaystva Uzbekistana [History of the National Economy of Uzbekistan]. Vol. 1. Tashkent, 1962, pp. 50–51.

Makarova, G. P. Narodnyi komissariat po delam natsional'nostei RSFSR (1917–1923 gg.): Istoricheskii ocherk [The People's Commissariat for Nationality Affairs of the RSFSR (1917–1923): A Historical Sketch]. Moscow, 1987, p. 126.

Malikov, Azim. "Russian Policy toward Islamic 'Sacred Lineages' of Samarkand Province of the Turkestan Governor-Generalship in 1868–1917." Acta Slavica Iaponica, vol. 40 (2021): 193–216.

Malikov, A. "Nekotorye osobennosti islamskoi kul'tury Khorezma v epokhu Zolotoi Ordy" [Some Features of the Islamic Culture of Khwarazm in the Golden Horde Era]. Golden Horde Review 11, no. 4 (2023).

Narodnoe khozyaystvo Turkestana [The National Economy of Turkestan], no. 22 (1919): 8.

Narodnoe khozyaystvo Turkestana [The National Economy of Turkestan], no. 3 (1919): 20; no. 6 (1919): 2.

Ocherk ustroistva tsentral'nogo administrativnogo upravleniya Bukharskogo khanstva pozdneishego vremeni [An Outline of the Central Administrative Structure of the Bukharan Khanate in the Late Period]. In Materialy po istorii tadzhikov i uzbekov Srednei Azii, vol. 2, Trudy Instituta istorii, arkheologii i etnografii Akademii nauk Tadzhikskoi SSR, vol. 25. Dushanbe, 1954.

Rajabov, K., and M. Khaydarov. Turkiston Tarixi (1917–1924) [History of Turkestan (1917–1924)]. Tashkent, 2002.

Russian State Archive of Socio-Political History (RGASPI), Fond 2, Opis 1, Delo 23181, List 6.

Soghuniy, Alikhontura. Tarikhi Muhammadiy [The History of Muhammad]. 3rd ed. Tashkent: Sharq, 2004.

Tileukulov, S., A. A. Golovanov, Sh. Orazymbetov, and S. Kasanbaev. Turkestan na istoricheskom povorote 1917–1920 gg. [Turkestan at a Historical Turning Point, 1917–1920], p. 144.

Turkestan v nachale XX veka: v istorii istokov natsional'noi nezavisimosti [Turkestan at the Beginning of the 20th Century: In the History of the Origins of National Independence]. Tashkent, 2000.

Tukhachevsky, M. N. "Bor'ba s kontrrevolyutsionnymi vosstaniyami" [The Struggle against Counterrevolutionary Uprisings]. Voina i Revolyutsiya, kn. 9 (1926): 6–7.

O'zbekistonning yangi tarixi [The New History of Uzbekistan], bk. 2, O'zbekiston sovet mustamlakachiligi davrida[Uzbekistan in the Period of Soviet Colonialism]. Tashkent, 2000.

Turkey and the Middle Corridor: The Limits of Ankara's Best Instrument in Central Asia

Turkey and the Middle Corridor: The Limits of Ankara's Best Instrument in Central Asia
July

24

2026

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sanctions, political risk, and logistical disruption have pushed governments and shippers to look for routes to Europe that do not cross Russian territory. The chief beneficiary has been the Middle Corridor—the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR)—which runs from China through Kazakhstan, across the Caspian, and on through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey.

The growth has been real. Freight on the TITR rose from 1.5 million tons in 2022 to more than 2.7 million tons in 2023, an 86 percent increase, according to the TITR Association. Kazakhstan's Ministry of Transport reported 4.1 million tons over the first eleven months of 2024, up 63 percent year-on-year, with full-year estimates running to roughly 4.5 million tons. The World Bank projects the corridor could triple to some 11 million tonnes by 2030; Kazakhstan is targeting 10 million tons by 2027.

Set against the Northern Corridor, however, those numbers are modest. The Middle Corridor moves roughly 6 percent of the Russian route's 100-million-ton annual capacity. This is the tension at the heart of Turkey's corridor strategy, and it is worth stating plainly at the outset: the route on which Ankara has staked its regional relevance is, by volume, marginal.

This article argues that the Middle Corridor is nonetheless Ankara's most effective instrument in Central Asia—not because of the freight it carries, but because of the position it confers. Turkey has spent three decades trying to convert linguistic and cultural affinity into influence, and cultural diplomacy alone never competed with Chinese capital or Russian security guarantees. The corridor gives Ankara something it has never had: a functional role that Central Asian governments actually need filled. What it does not give Turkey is leverage. China's economic weight, Russia's entrenched security position, and—most importantly—the deliberate multi-vector strategies pursued by Astana and Tashkent ensure that Turkey will be one partner among several, by the region's design rather than despite its efforts.

The corridor's real constraints

Turkey's geography is genuine. The Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway, commissioned in 2017 and upgraded in 2024 to an annual capacity of 5 million tons following reconstruction of its Georgian section, provides the backbone of Ankara's connectivity strategy. But the BTK's own ceiling is a reminder that the corridor's western spine is not built for the volumes its advocates project.

The binding constraints lie further east and are physical rather than political. The Caspian crossing is the corridor's weakest link, and it is deteriorating. Sea levels have fallen by as much as 30 centimeters a year since 2020, driven by reduced Volga inflow and rising evaporation. According to the Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company, this has already cut rail tank car ferry transport by 22 percent and wagon transport by 10 percent on the Baku–Kuryk route. Investment continues—Baku is expanding the Port of Alat toward a target capacity of 25 million tons and 500,000 TEU, and Kazakhstan is building out Aktau and Kuryk, including the Sarzha terminal with Abu Dhabi's AD Ports Group—but no amount of port construction raises the water level.

The western end is no more secure. Until the TRIPP route through southern Armenia and Nakhchivan becomes operational, Georgia remains the corridor's sole gateway to Europe. Georgian port capacity is nearing exhaustion, and Tbilisi has cut funding for the new Anaklia port from 150 million lari to 50 million for 2026. Turkey's status as the corridor's western terminus therefore rests on a single transit state with its own political crisis and no evident intention of resolving the bottleneck. This is the strongest version of the case, made recently by Carnegie, that the Middle Corridor may prove a dead end. It deserves to be met rather than ignored: the corridor's ceiling is lower than its boosters admit, and Turkish strategy should be judged against that ceiling, not against the growth curve.

What Turkey has actually built

Ankara's engagement has become markedly more concrete over the past decade, and the record is more substantial than the tonnage suggests.

The Organization of Turkic States, renamed from the Turkic Council in 2021, has expanded cooperation in transport, trade, customs harmonization, and political consultation. It is not a supranational body and shows no sign of becoming one—a fact its member states appear to regard as a feature. What it gives Turkey is a standing multilateral venue that neither Moscow nor Beijing sits in.

Trade has followed. Turkish–Azerbaijani trade reached a record $7.65 billion in 2023, up 31 percent year-on-year. Turkey–Uzbekistan trade stood at $3 billion in 2024, with both governments targeting $5 billion. TurkStat puts Turkey's total trade with OTS member states at $62.6 billion across 2020–2024. Turkish contractors remain among the most active foreign firms in the region.

Defense is where the relationship has moved furthest. Kyrgyzstan acquired at least three Bayraktar TB2s in 2021, among the first Central Asian purchases of the platform, and has since taken delivery of Akıncı and Aksungur systems. Kazakhstan contracted for TAI's ANKA in late 2021, with deliveries completed in 2023; a memorandum on joint production followed in May 2022, and a formal joint venture for ANKA manufacture and maintenance was signed in Astana during President Erdoğan's visit in May 2026, alongside thirteen bilateral agreements spanning defense, transport, energy, finance, and education. Kazakhstan is now the first ANKA production base outside Turkey.

This is the clearest evidence for the thesis—and it also complicates it. Kyrgyz TB2s were reportedly used against Tajikistan during the September 2022 border clashes. Turkish platforms are not merely lubricating regional connectivity; they are entering an armed dispute between two Central Asian states, one of them not Turkic. Ankara's defense exports buy influence, but they also entangle Turkey in quarrels it has no mechanism to arbitrate.

The competition, and the region's own strategy

China remains the structural constraint. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has committed sums across Eurasia that Ankara cannot approach, and Chinese investment in Central Asian rail, energy, mining, and telecommunications far exceeds Turkey's capacity. Turkey does not compete with this and should not pretend to.

Russia's position has weakened but not collapsed. The Collective Security Treaty Organization, bilateral military agreements, migration links, and dense institutional habit continue to give Moscow purchase that Ankara cannot replicate.

Europe is now a third competitor—and, awkwardly for Ankara, a better-capitalized one. At the Global Gateway Investors Forum in Brussels in January 2024, European and international financial institutions pledged €10 billion for Trans-Caspian transport connectivity. At the first EU–Central Asia summit in Samarkand in April 2025, Brussels launched a €12 billion Global Gateway package with the corridor as its flagship. Against the EBRD's estimate that roughly €18.5 billion is needed for regional transport infrastructure, even these sums fall short—but they dwarf what Turkey brings.

The decisive constraint, however, is not any external power. It is the deliberate strategy of the Central Asian states themselves. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have spent three decades constructing multi-vector foreign policies precisely to avoid dependence on any single partner, and they apply that logic to Ankara as readily as to Moscow or Beijing. Kazakhstan's ANKA deal is instructive: it is simultaneously an opening to Turkey and a hedge against Russian defense dependence, taken by a government that continues to balance both. Astana is not choosing Turkey. It is adding Turkey to a portfolio. This is not a limitation Ankara can engineer away. It is the region's settled preference, and any Turkish strategy premised on displacing it will fail.

Conclusion

The freight numbers will not carry Turkey's argument for it. A corridor moving 6 percent of its northern rival's volume, bottlenecked at a shrinking sea and a single strained Georgian gateway, will not make Ankara the pivot of Eurasian trade in this decade or the next.

But that was never the realistic prize. The corridor's value to Turkey is positional rather than commercial: it has given Ankara a functional role in a region where it previously had only rhetoric, and it has converted the Organization of Turkic States from a cultural forum into a body with something to coordinate. The defense partnerships, the co-production agreements, the customs harmonization—these follow from Turkey's usefulness on the route, and they will outlast any particular tonnage figure.

The strategic conclusion for Ankara is therefore uncomfortable but clarifying. Turkey's returns in Central Asia are real, and they are capped. They are capped not by Turkish failure but by Central Asian success: governments that have learned to take what each partner offers without granting any of them primacy. The question for Turkish policy is not how to break that ceiling—it cannot be broken—but whether Ankara can accept a durable secondary position and build on it, rather than continuing to describe its regional role in language its partners have never accepted. The Middle Corridor is Turkey's best instrument in Central Asia. It is also a lesson in how much less that means than Ankara has been willing to say.

Dr. Hande Ortay is a lecturer and researcher in international relations at KTO Karatay University in Konya. Her work spans international politics, European affairs, and social transformation, and she is active in building academic ties abroad, with a particular focus on Africa. She studied political science and international relations at İstanbul Yeni Yüzyıl University.

How Kazakhstan Won Trump's Washington

How Kazakhstan Won Trump's Washington
July

20

2026

Illustration by Dinmukhamed Kairulla.

How Astana went from a handshake at the United Nations to the front of the line in Trump’s Washington — and why the rest of Central Asia stands to gain from it

On July 10, Donald Trump and Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke by phone. The Kazakh president congratulated his American counterpart on the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence, reviewed the implementation of agreements struck during his November visit to Washington, restated Kazakhstan’s long-held position on the inadmissibility of nuclear proliferation, and extended an invitation for Trump to visit Kazakhstan.

The call was not an isolated courtesy. It capped eight months of engagement between Astana and Washington that is without precedent in the thirty-five-year history of the relationship: a White House summit, accession to the Abraham Accords, twenty-nine commercial agreements worth some $17 billion, invitations — extended to both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan last year — to the G20 summit Trump will host in Miami, and a stream of senior American visitors to Astana, from Senator Steve Daines to Special Envoy Sergio Gor to executives of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. American investment in Kazakhstan has passed $100 billion, with a stated ambition to reach $137 billion. Jeff Erlich, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Kazakhstan and whose experience in the region dates to the late 1990s, told The New York Times that the business relationship “has never been better.”

That this is happening under an American president famously indifferent to regions that cannot offer him deals is not a paradox. Kazakhstan has things Trump’s Washington wants — critical minerals, uranium, a trade corridor that bypasses Russia, Iran, and China — and a leadership that has proven unusually adept at reading this administration’s transactional grammar. But the story is larger than one president’s dealmaking. It marks the moment when Central Asia’s largest economy moved from the periphery of American strategy toward something closer to its center, and when Kazakhstan consolidated its claim to being the region’s political anchor.

From Handshake to Front of the Line

It did not start out this way. For much of 2025, Uzbekistan looked like the Central Asian state best positioned in Trump’s Washington. At the UN General Assembly in September, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev was granted a formal meeting with Trump and left New York with an $8.5 billion order for twenty-two Boeing 787 Dreamliners. Tokayev, by contrast, had to settle for a handshake. Kazakhstan’s own headline agreement at the time — a $4.2 billion contract with the American rail manufacturer Wabtec to renew its locomotive park — was substantial, but it lacked the Oval Office theater. Some in Astana suspected that Sergio Gor, the Tashkent-born Trump confidant confirmed in October as ambassador to India and special envoy for South and Central Asian affairs, harbored a natural sympathy for the country of his birth.

The balance shifted in November, around a piece of Trump’s legacy that money cannot buy. When the five Central Asian presidents gathered at the White House on November 6 for the C5+1 summit — the first time all five had met an American president inside the building, on the tenth anniversary of the format — Trump announced that Kazakhstan would join the Abraham Accords, the first country to do so in his second term. “The first of many,” he posted. The Accords are central to how Trump wants his foreign policy remembered, and Tokayev had handed him a fresh signatory at a moment when the initiative had stalled. Kazakhstan also joined Trump’s Board of Peace, the body created to oversee the Gaza settlement.

The rewards were immediate. When the leaders sat down to dinner, Tokayev was the first of the five presidents Trump called on to speak — a distinction of protocol not lost on anyone in the room — and he used it to declare “the beginning of a new era of interaction” between the region and the United States. His flattery was, even by the standards of the evening, conspicuous — he told his host that Trump had been “sent by heaven” — but it was flattery in the service of a concrete agenda. Kazakh and American companies signed twenty-nine agreements worth roughly $17 billion, spanning locomotives, an AI data hub with Nvidia and the cloud firm Firebird, satellite internet with Amazon’s Leo constellation, and joint ventures in critical minerals.

The centerpiece was tungsten. Kazakhstan’s national mining company agreed with New York-based Cove Capital to jointly develop the Severny Katpar and Verkhnee Kairakty deposits in the Karaganda region — by some assessments the largest known undeveloped tungsten resource in the world — with American development-finance institutions signaling interest in more than a billion dollars of support. The deal has since acquired a political afterlife in Washington: subsequent reporting revealed that an investment vehicle backed by the president’s sons had taken a stake in the venture’s American parent shortly before the contract was awarded, and Democrats have promised congressional scrutiny. For Astana, the controversy is an American domestic affair — but a reminder that partnerships built close to this White House carry exposure to its politics.

Since November, the relationship has settled into an unusually productive rhythm: Gor in Astana in June for talks on investment, artificial intelligence, transport, and critical minerals; a senior U.S. Chamber of Commerce delegation received by Tokayev in early July; the C5+1 Critical Minerals Dialogue convening with high-level American participation; and now the July 10 call, in which both sides, notably, dwelt on results rather than rhetoric.

The Periodic Table Under Their Feet

What does Washington want? The short answer is minerals, and the shorter answer is China.

Beijing’s dominance of critical raw materials — including more than 80 percent of global tungsten supply, a near-monopoly on rare-earth processing — has become one of its sharpest instruments of leverage over the United States. China has repeatedly tightened export controls on rare earths and critical minerals. In early 2025, Beijing instituted strict export controls on tungsten, a commodity NATO lists among just twelve defense-critical raw materials. Finding alternative suppliers is no longer an industrial-policy preference in Washington; it is treated as a national-security requirement.

Kazakhstan is the most credible answer in Central Asia, and arguably one of the most credible anywhere. The country possesses deposits of 21 of the 50 minerals the United States classifies as critical. It is the world’s largest producer of uranium — an increasingly strategic commodity as the United States works to displace Russian nuclear fuel — and holds major deposits of chromium, copper, titanium, and tantalum. The Kuyrektykol discovery in the Karaganda region, announced in 2025, may hold rare-earth resources that would rank Kazakhstan behind only China and Brazil if confirmed. Kazakhs are fond of saying that the entire periodic table lies under their feet; the claim is only a mild exaggeration, and Washington has begun taking it literally.

The caveats are real. Reserves are not supply chains: Kazakhstan’s capacity to process tungsten and separate rare earths remains limited. Astana knows this, which is why its negotiating position has consistently emphasized processing, technology transfer, and higher value-added production over raw exports. For a country that has spent three decades exporting crude oil and importing refined goods, the American minerals push is an opportunity to industrialize, not merely to dig.

The minerals agenda also sits atop a much older economic foundation. More than 600 U.S. companies operate in Kazakhstan, and roughly 70 percent of all foreign direct investment in Central Asia flows to the country, by Tokayev’s own account. Chevron’s 1993 entry into the Tengiz field remains one of the most durable American investments anywhere in the former Soviet Union; the field’s $48.9 billion expansion reached full capacity last year, and Kazakhstan still accounts for roughly a quarter of Chevron’s global output. Whatever the oscillations of American policy over three decades, the companies stayed. That record is Kazakhstan’s silent advantage: it can show Washington not a pitch but a track record.

Astana's Calculus

For Kazakhstan, the logic of the American turn is written into the founding doctrine of its statehood: the multivector foreign policy, which holds that a vast, landlocked country wedged between Russia and China survives by ensuring it is never dependent on either.

The war in Ukraine has strained that doctrine from one direction. Russia remains an inescapable fact of geography — Kazakhstan shares with it the world’s longest continuous land border, a customs union, and a security treaty — but its capacity to underwrite the region’s economy has visibly diminished, and its willingness to respect the sovereignty of former Soviet neighbors is, after February 2022, an open question in Astana. China has filled much of the resulting vacuum, becoming the region’s dominant trading partner and infrastructure financier. Beijing is a valued partner, and relations are good. But substituting one overwhelming dependency for another is precisely the outcome multivectorism exists to prevent. An American vector — alongside European, Gulf, Korean, and Turkish ones — restores the equilibrium. As Nurlan Zhakupov, head of the sovereign wealth fund Samruk-Kazyna, put it: Kazakhstan assesses American, Chinese, Russian, or Emirati partners “on a relative performance basis,” and chooses what serves it best.

The Middle Corridor is where these interests converge rather than collide. The trans-Caspian route from China through Kazakhstan to the Caucasus and Europe offers Beijing a path to European markets, offers Washington access to Central Asian minerals without transiting Russia, Iran, or China, and offers Kazakhstan transit revenue and geoeconomic relevance. Traffic is growing fast — container trains through Kazakhstan were up over a third year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, and freight volumes have quintupled since 2019. It is a rare piece of infrastructure that Washington and Beijing can both endorse, which is exactly why Astana promotes it so energetically.

Thirty-Five Years of Cycles

The current moment is best measured against the history that preceded it — a history in which American attention surged, served some external purpose, and receded, and in which Central Asia was almost always a means to some other end.

Washington recognized Kazakhstan’s independence within days of the Soviet collapse in December 1991 — among the first capitals to do so — and the relationship’s founding chapter remains its most consequential. Kazakhstan emerged from the Soviet collapse holding the world’s fourth-largest nuclear arsenal — more than 1,400 strategic warheads — along with the Semipalatinsk test site, where the Soviet Union had conducted 456 nuclear tests over four decades. President Nursultan Nazarbayev closed Semipalatinsk by decree on August 29, 1991, before the USSR had even formally dissolved, and then gave up the arsenal entirely, acceding to the Non-Proliferation Treaty and receiving security assurances under the 1994 Budapest Memorandum.

American partnership was woven through that choice. Under the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program, Washington financed the dismantlement of weapons infrastructure. In November 1994, in a then-covert operation known as Project Sapphire, the two governments airlifted roughly 600 kilograms of poorly secured highly enriched uranium — enough for some twenty bombs — from the Ulba Metallurgical Plant to Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Denuclearization also unlocked the Western capital Kazakhstan’s oil sector needed: Chevron’s Tengiz deal was signed in 1993, with ExxonMobil and others following into Kashagan and Karachaganak. That Tokayev used a call with Trump thirty years later to reaffirm nonproliferation principles was not boilerplate; it was an invocation of the relationship’s founding text.

The rest of the Nazarbayev-era relationship was warier. Through the 1990s, American engagement ran heavily through democracy promotion — NGOs, election monitoring, U.S.-funded media — and Washington’s assessments of Kazakhstan’s managed politics were a chronic irritant, even as energy cooperation deepened. After September 11, 2001, the region was recast in security terms: Kazakhstan’s neighbors hosted American bases, while Kazakhstan granted overflight and emergency landing rights and later became a link in the Northern Distribution Network supplying coalition forces in Afghanistan. The intervention next door served the region well: toppling the Taliban and crushing the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan eliminated the most pressing dangers, and the Western presence coincided with an unusual stretch of stability and growth.

But the pattern held: the region mattered to Washington as a staging ground, not a destination. The C5+1 format, created in 2015 at the foreign-minister level, was an attempt to institutionalize engagement as the security rationale faded. The chaotic withdrawal from Kabul in August 2021 delivered the sharper lesson — that Washington could walk away from a twenty-year commitment essentially overnight, leaving neighbors to manage the consequences.

The Biden years brought a genuine milestone — the first-ever presidential C5+1 summit, on the margins of the UN General Assembly in September 2023, where the Critical Minerals Dialogue was launched — but the underlying posture was cautious. Washington’s regional diplomacy after February 2022 was dominated by Ukraine, and Central Asia was approached substantially as a sanctions-compliance problem: a corridor through which dual-use goods might reach Russia, to be monitored and warned. The engagement laid groundwork, but it treated the region primarily as a risk to be managed.

What has changed under Trump is the frame. Human rights and governance have receded from the agenda — the administration dismantled USAID programming in Kazakhstan, and recent summits have been conspicuously free of the language of political reform. The loss of this dimension has led to the relationship now running on the terrain where Kazakhstan is strongest: resources, logistics, investment, and deals.

The shift runs deeper than tone. Under Trump, Washington has grown willing to look past traditional partners simply because they are traditional. The European Union — an ally by every treaty definition — is increasingly treated in Washington as a bloc that acts against American interests as often as with them. The partners gaining ground instead are those that bring something concrete to the table — capital, resources, military capability — and that read the world less through the lens of ideology than through prosperity and stability. Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, and Poland have all drawn markedly closer to Washington on precisely these terms. It amounts to a redefinition of what makes a country valuable to the United States, and it is a redefinition that plays directly to Central Asia’s strengths. The region’s states cannot offer democratic kinship; they can offer minerals, corridors, capital, and steadiness. For the first time, that is the currency Washington is counting.

The Tashkent Question

No account of Kazakhstan’s American ascent is complete without Uzbekistan, and no honest account renders the two as adversaries. The relationship is fraternal, dense, and increasingly institutionalized. But the two largest states of Central Asia do compete — for investment, for Washington’s attention, and, implicitly, for regional primacy — and the past year has clarified the terms of that competition.

Uzbekistan’s early lead was real. Mirziyoyev, not Tokayev, got the Oval Office meeting in September 2025; in November he arrived in Washington with a pledge that Uzbekistan would invest and purchase $35 billion in the American economy over three years and more than $100 billion over a decade. Tashkent’s pitch rests on genuine assets: the region’s largest population, approaching 38 million; a genuine post-2016 reform story; and an energetic courtship of Trump personally, including Mirziyoyev’s bid to host the next C5+1 summit in Samarkand, which would make Trump the first sitting American president ever to set foot in Central Asia. Tokayev has extended his own invitation, and the question of where Air Force One first lands in the region has become the unofficial scoreboard of the rivalry.

Yet as the relationship has moved from announcements to implementation, Kazakhstan’s structural advantages have told. Its mineral endowment is deeper and more aligned with specific American strategic needs — tungsten, uranium, rare earths — than Uzbekistan’s. It has Caspian ports and the Middle Corridor’s main line; Uzbekistan is doubly landlocked. Its accumulated American investment rests on three decades of contract performance, whereas independent economists have questioned whether Uzbekistan’s headline pledges are achievable on its current trajectory. Uzbek commitments lean heavily on purchases — aircraft, agricultural machinery, auto parts — while the Kazakh portfolio runs toward joint ventures, processing, and infrastructure that bind American capital into the country for decades. One relationship is being measured in orders; the other, increasingly, in assets.

It would nonetheless be a mistake — one Astana itself is careful not to make — to score this as a zero-sum contest. Every deepening of American engagement with any Central Asian state raises the strategic value of all of them: the Middle Corridor needs Uzbek cargo as well as Kazakh rail; the minerals story is regional, from Kazakh tungsten to Uzbek copper to Tajik antimony; and the five states have spent the years since 2018 building habits of consultation that make them more attractive to outside partners precisely because they increasingly act as a coherent region. Both presidents were invited to the Miami G20. The competition is real, but it is a competition to lead a rising bloc, not to escape a sinking one — and a Washington engaged with Tashkent is better for Astana than a Washington engaged with neither.

The Middle-Power Wager

Kazakhstan’s American opening is one panel of a larger design. Tokayev — a career diplomat, former director-general of the UN office in Geneva, and a Mandarin speaker — has articulated a vision of Kazakhstan as a middle power: a state that converts geography, resources, and diplomatic reliability into agency, rather than treating its position between giants as a condition to be endured. At the Antalya Diplomacy Forum this spring, he described middle powers as “bridges” capable of sustaining cooperation when great powers cannot or will not.

The record increasingly supports the ambition. Kazakhstan has hosted negotiation platforms from the Iran nuclear file to the Syria talks; it champions regional formats that give Central Asia a collective voice; and it has managed the near-impossible balancing act of the Ukraine war, maintaining its treaty relationship with Moscow while refusing to recognize the annexations and becoming a reliable alternative supplier to Western markets. Its nonproliferation biography gives it standing on nuclear questions that few states of any size possess — standing Tokayev deploys deliberately, as he did on the July call.

Regional leadership in Central Asia will never be a solo act; Uzbekistan’s demographic weight and Mirziyoyev’s diplomacy guarantee that. But political leadership — the capacity to convene, to mediate, to be the state outside powers call first — has been consolidating in Astana. The first word at the White House dinner on November 6 was one acknowledgment of that. The pattern of American engagement since has been another.

The Test Ahead

A measure of sobriety is warranted, and Kazakh officials privately supply it themselves. The history sketched above is a history of American attention arriving and departing on Washington’s schedule, and there is no guarantee this time is different. Headline deal figures often dwindle once engineers replace press officers. The tungsten controversy shows how a partnership tuned to this particular White House can become entangled in American domestic politics. Russia and China retain instruments of pressure that the United States cannot and will not neutralize; Washington is not about to become Central Asia’s security guarantor, and nobody in Astana pretends otherwise.

But the structural forces underneath the current warmth are more durable than the personalities atop it. American demand for non-Chinese critical minerals will outlast this administration. The Middle Corridor grows more valuable with every year the Russian route remains toxic. And Kazakhstan’s own strategy does not depend on American constancy — that is the entire point of multivectorism. The lesson of thirty-five years is that American companies proved more reliable partners than American administrations; Chevron outlasted six presidents. Kazakhstan’s achievement in the past year has been to convert a moment of geopolitical alignment into contracts, joint ventures, and institutions that can survive the moment’s passing.

Whether Trump lands first in Samarkand or on the steppe, the deeper shift has already occurred. A region long treated as a corridor to somewhere else is being engaged as a destination — and Kazakhstan, more than any of its neighbors, is the reason why.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center, a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute, an Expert at the N7 Foundation, and a Research Fellow at Bar Ilan University's Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.

July 20, 2026

Iran Deal or Conflict: Stakes for the South Caucasus

Iran Deal or Conflict: Stakes for the South Caucasus
July

13

2026

The ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran are being watched closely across the South Caucasus. Regional actors understand that the outcome will shape more than just the security architecture of the Middle East — it will directly affect a region that borders Iran and depends on it for both security and economic stability. Any shift in Tehran's international standing will redefine the strategic environment for Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan alike.

Two paths are open: a positive scenario, in which the talks succeed and peace is achieved, and a negative scenario, in which they collapse and conflict drags on. Each path implies sharply different consequences for Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.

Current Realities: Each Country's Relationship with Iran

Armenia is one of Iran's closest and most reliable neighbors. Tehran hosts a prominent Armenian diaspora whose historical and cultural presence is constitutionally recognized by Article 64, including a two-seat quota in Iran's parliament. Beyond these cultural ties, the relationship rests on a shared strategic interest in balancing the Turkic bloc. For landlocked Armenia, Iran is also an indispensable economic and transit lifeline, providing access to its ports and domestic transport networks. Although Iran is not among Armenia’s largest direct trading partners, its strategic importance extends far beyond bilateral trade. Roughly a quarter of Armenia’s foreign trade transits Iranian territory, making Iran a critical logistical corridor for Armenian commerce. Moreover, Iran provides Armenia with essential access to major markets such as China and the UAE, both of which rank among Armenia’s leading trade partners. Iran also plays a vital role in Armenia’s energy security through the gas-for-electricity agreement in force since 2009, under which Armenia exports electricity to Iran in exchange for natural gas.

Defense ties matter too. Military cooperation between Yerevan and Tehran has deepened since the 2020 44-Day War exposed Armenia's vulnerabilities in air defense and drone warfare. In July 2024, Iran International reported a roughly $500 million arms dealbetween the two countries, covering drones, air-defense missile systems, intelligence cooperation, and training — though Armenia's Ministry of Defense publicly dismissed the report as "fictitious and fabricated," and Iran did not confirm it either. Two years later, at Armenia's Republic Day parade in Yerevan on May 28, 2026, Armenia publicly displayed Iran's AD-08 Majid short-range air-defense system. Iranian sources have claimed the Majid was used to damage a U.S. F-35 during the 2026 conflict with Iran.

Georgia is the only South Caucasus country without a direct land border with Iran. Different foreign policy orientations and security priorities have kept the two countries from ever pursuing a closer strategic partnership. Instead, their relationship is best described as a "cool friendship," resting on two understandings: Iran respects Georgia's territorial integrity, and Georgia stays out of anti-Iranian international campaigns.

Economic ties between the two countries remain limited. In 2024, Georgia ran a trade deficit of about $240 million with Iran: Georgia's imports from Iran consisted mainly of raw iron bars and other construction-related materials, while its exports to Iran were dominated by sawn wood. The total value of Georgia's exports to Iran in 2024 was just $36 million — far too small to place Iran among Georgia's top ten export destinations.

Unlike Armenia, Georgia has little prospect of building a deep economic relationship or strategic partnership with Iran. Over the past two years, the most notable moments in Georgian-Iranian relations have simply been senior Georgian officials attending funerals and inaugurations in Tehran. Tbilisi's gradual drift away from a strictly pro-Western orientation has made Iranian authorities somewhat optimistic, but history suggests there are real limits to how far Georgia will go — likely no further than a "cold but friendly"relationship with Tehran.

Azerbaijan is, in many ways, one of Iran's most complicated neighbors. Despite the religious, historical, and cultural ties between the two nations, the existence of an independent, prosperous Azerbaijan next door serves as an uncomfortable reminder to Iran's ethnic Azerbaijani populationestimated at up to a third of the country — that life outside Iranian rule is possible.

Conversely, Iran's state-sponsored Shiite ideology poses a serious challenge to Azerbaijan's national security. To offset this, Baku has built strategic partnerships with Turkey and, more controversially, with Iran's arch-rival, Israel. In the wake of the Azerbaijan-Israel partnership, Baku has repeatedly come under harsh criticism from senior Iranian officials. Consequently, when war broke out between Israel and Iran, there was a real risk of it spilling over into the South Caucasus.

Given these strained relations, economic ties between Tehran and Baku remain modest — though trade turnover between the two is still higher than between Iran and Georgia. That said, Azerbaijan's exports to Iran are almost two-fifths lower than Georgia's exports to Iran.

Scenarios and Stakes for Each Country

Armenia

Armenia's close relationship with Iran has long been a source of frustration for Washington. However, sustained lobbying by the Armenian diaspora helped convince U.S. policymakers that, for a country blockaded by Azerbaijan and Turkey, maintaining ties with Iran was a strategic necessity rather than a political choice. For Yerevan, a potential rapprochement between Tehran and Washington could fundamentally reshape its regional position by removing the principal obstacle to implementing the long-discussed strategic partnership agreement with Iran. Such a development would significantly expand bilateral cooperation across the economic, political, infrastructure, energy, and transit sectors.

A sanctions-free Iran would open a far larger market for Armenian exports — and it would do so precisely as Iran's own consumer demand contracts under sanctions and regional instability, including Armenian imported products. Beyond the market, the normalization of Iran's relations with the West could unlock substantial opportunities in the energy sector. The removal of sanctions on Iranian energy exports would not only strengthen Armenia's energy security but could also transform the country into a strategic transit corridor for Iranian gas and oil destined for Georgia and, potentially, European markets. In this context, recent statements by Iran's vice president regarding the unblocking of regional transport and energy infrastructure could become politically and economically feasible.

The transit benefits would be equally significant. Armenia would enjoy easier access to Iran's Persian Gulf ports, particularly Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, which Tehran granted Armenia access to in 2024 to facilitate trade with India and other Asian markets. Greater regional stability and the easing of sanctions would substantially increase the commercial value of these routes, potentially transforming Armenia into a key component of emerging North-South connectivity networks. Under such circumstances, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's ambition to increase bilateral trade with Iran from $1 billion to $3 billion would become achievable rather than populist rhetoric.

The security implications could be just as profound. An Iran no longer constrained by sanctions or the constant threat of military confrontation would possess greater political, economic, and military leverage in the South Caucasus. From Yerevan's perspective, this would strengthen Iran's ability to counterbalance Azerbaijan and Turkey, thereby shifting the regional balance of power in Armenia's favor. This convergence could ultimately produce a military alliance, as Yerevan and Tehran tried to do in 1999. Ironically, a more stable southern border would reduce Armenia's dependence on Russian security guarantees, providing Yerevan with greater strategic flexibility as it continues to pursue a more pro-Western foreign policy.

Consequently, if a durable peace or normalization process were to emerge between Tehran and Washington, Armenia would likely rank among its greatest geopolitical beneficiaries. The economic, transit, energy, and security dividends would collectively strengthen Armenia's regional position while expanding its strategic room for maneuver.

Armenia stands to be one of the greatest beneficiaries of a potential normalization of relations between the United States and Iran, but it is equally among the most vulnerable if the conflict is prolonged. A war that weakens or destabilizes Iran would have profound economic, humanitarian, and security consequences for Yerevan.

Economically, Armenia would face serious disruptions to its connectivity with key trading partners, particularly China and the United Arab Emirates, as a substantial share of its external trade transits through Iranian territory. During the recent hostilities, transport disruptions and border restrictions nearly doubled the average delivery time for goods arriving from China. A prolonged conflict would deepen Armenia's geographic isolation, leaving Georgia as its only reliable gateway to international markets. At the same time, instability in Iran could jeopardize Armenian energy security by disrupting the long-standing gas-for-electricity arrangement that has become an important component of the country's energy diversification.

The humanitarian consequences could also be significant. Armenia has long served as a preferred destination for Iranian citizensseeking travel, business opportunities, or temporary refuge. A large-scale deterioration of conditions in Iran could trigger refugee flows into Armenia, placing additional pressure on the country's public services and administrative capacity.

The security consequences could be graver still. The weakening of Iran would reduce one of the key geopolitical constraints on Azerbaijan and Turkey while simultaneously increasing Armenia's strategic vulnerability. Under such circumstances, Yerevan could once again find itself relying more heavily on Russia for security guarantees, undermining its recent efforts to diversify its foreign policy and deepen integration with the Euro-Atlantic community. In effect, the prolonged conflict would risk pulling Armenia back into the cycle of dependence from which it has been trying to escape.

Finally, continued instability in Iran would postpone Armenia's broader strategic ambition of transforming itself from a peripheral, landlocked state into a key transit hub linking the Persian Gulf, the South Caucasus, and Europe. Conversely, a durable détente between Tehran and Washington could fundamentally reshape Armenia's long-term development trajectory by unlocking new opportunities in trade, infrastructure, energy, and regional connectivity.

Georgia

Since 1995, Iran has repeatedly sought to position Georgia as a transit hub connecting Iran with Western markets and Russia. However, international sanctions, Tehran's prolonged isolation, and recurring regional conflicts have consistently prevented these ambitions from materializing. A normalization of US-Iran relations could fundamentally alter this dynamic. A revitalized Iranian economy would likely generate higher trade volumes, increasing cargo flows through Georgia's transport corridors and ports, particularly the Anaklia Deep Sea Port, Poti Port, and Batumi Port.

This prospect has become even more significant following the Georgian government's decision to finance the construction of the Anaklia Deep Sea Port and retain ownership of its core infrastructure while inviting foreign partners to develop and operate the cargo terminals. If Iran were able to fully reintegrate into international trade, Iranian transit cargo could become an important source of demand, strengthening the commercial viability of Anaklia and reinforcing Georgia's ambition to establish itself as a gateway between Asia and Europe.

That said, the scope of this cooperation would likely remain confined to maritime connectivity. As long as Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain under Russian occupation, Georgia cannot realistically serve as a land corridor linking Iran with Russia. Rail connections through Abkhazia remain politically impossible, while the Roki Tunnel — the principal route connecting Russia to South Ossetia — lies outside Tbilisi's control.

In the energy sector, the lifting of sanctions on Iran would provide Georgia with meaningful opportunities to diversify its energy partnerships. Beyond increasing imports of Iranian hydrocarbons, it could stimulate investment in strategic infrastructure, including oil and gas terminals, storage facilities, and potentially refining capacity. Over the longer term, improved political conditions could also revive discussions about pipeline projects crossing Georgian territory to deliver Iranian energy resources to European markets, which have been actively seeking alternative suppliers since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Georgia's immediate security picture would change little. The open question is whether a wealthier, more confident Iran would seek to build influence among Georgia's Shiite minority - something already watched closely by both Georgian and international security officials.

In a negative scenario, where the conflict continues for an extended and uncertain period, Georgia's economy would face significant challenges. Beyond the immediate impact of rising global oil and gas prices, two of the country's most important economic sectors — tourism and construction — would be particularly affected.

Over the past several years, Georgia has emerged as an increasingly attractive destination for visitors from the Middle East, particularly from Israel and the Gulf countries. According to Gal & Taggart, the tourism sector has been among the hardest hit since the outbreak of the conflict, with revenues projected to decline by 32% compared to 2025.

The construction and real estate sectors would also come under pressure. Iranian building materials have become an important component of Georgia's construction supply chain, and any prolonged disruption to imports from Iran would increase construction costs, ultimately driving up real estate prices and slowing new development projects.

At the same time, a prolonged conflict could produce one important geopolitical benefit for Georgia. Continued instability in the Middle East would further reinforce the strategic importance of the Middle Corridor as an alternative trade route connecting Asia with Europe, increasing Georgia's value as a transit state and strengthening its geopolitical significance.

Nevertheless, the security and humanitarian risks should not be overlooked. Although Georgia does not share a border with Iran, its geographic proximity means it would not be insulated from the consequences of a prolonged conflict. In the event of a major deterioration of the security situation inside Iran, Georgia could face increased migratory pressure, as the distance between the two countries is relatively short and Georgia remains an accessible destination for those seeking safety or onward transit.

Azerbaijan

For Baku, Iran’s return from international isolation would be the least favorable of the three possible scenarios. A wealthier and economically revitalized Iran, no longer constrained by American sanctions, would present a far greater strategic challenge to Azerbaijan, regardless of whether Tehran remains an Islamic Republic or gradually evolves into a more secular, nationalist state. In either case, the "Azerbaijan question" would remain central, as it resonates with both the Islamic and nationalist currents of Iranian politics.

A stronger Iran would likely adopt a more assertive policy toward Baku, not only to limit Azerbaijan’s growing regional influence but also to demonstrate to its own ethnic Azerbaijanis — again, up to a third of the population — that living within Iran remains preferable to the alternative across the border. While a more nationalist Iran could, in theory, place greater emphasis on cultivating ties with the Talysh minority in southern Azerbaijan rather than relying primarily on Shiite solidarity, such a shift is unlikely. The Shiite religious framework would remain Tehran’s broader and more effective instrument for projecting influence in Azerbaijan.

This scenario would also deepen Azerbaijan’s strategic reliance on Turkey. As pressure from Iran increases, closer security and political coordination with Ankara would become increasingly necessary. However, this presents a dilemma for President Aliyev's government, which has carefully sought to balance its "one nation, two states" partnership with Turkey while limiting Ankara’s influence over Azerbaijan’s domestic political affairs. Excessive dependence on Turkey would therefore run counter to Baku’s long-standing preference for maintaining strategic autonomy.

A prolonged Iran–U.S. conflict would produce a more ambiguous outcome for Azerbaijan than just increasing oil incomes. On the one hand, a militarily and economically weakened Iran would temporarily reduce pressure on Baku. It would also reinforce the Azerbaijan-backed Middle Corridor project. On the other, the collapse or fragmentation of the Iranian state would create far greater security risks than the current situation. From Azerbaijan’s perspective, the most favorable outcome is arguably the continuation of the status quo: an Iran that remains internationally isolated and constrained by sanctions but retains firm control over its territory.

The breakdown of central authority in Tehran could transform the Iranian-Azerbaijani border into a source of instability, facilitating irregular migration, terrorism, drug trafficking, and transnational organized crime. Moreover, although Azerbaijan has so far avoided direct involvement in the Iran–Israel confrontation despite its close security partnership with Israel, this position cannot be taken for granted. Drone strikes attributed to Iran near the Nakhchivan exclave demonstrated that Azerbaijan could still become exposed to the conflict should regional hostilities escalate further. And the next target could be a strategic asset on the mainland, such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.

Conclusion

The deeper point is that all three South Caucasus states have become hostages to a negotiation in which none of them holds a seat. Their exposure to Tehran’s fate — Armenia’s connectivity and security, Georgia’s transit ambitions, Azerbaijan’s border and its balancing act between Turkey and Israel — is a function of decisions taken in Washington and Tehran, not in Yerevan, Tbilisi, or Baku. That is precisely why each has spent the past two years widening its options: Armenia hedging between Moscow, the West, and Tehran; Georgia positioning Anaklia and the Middle Corridor as insurance; Azerbaijan deepening ties with Ankara while guarding its autonomy against it. Whichever way the US-Iran track breaks, the states that weather it best will be those that refused to bet on a single outcome — and the coming year will test how far that hedging can substitute for the leverage none of them holds.

 Bako Kheladze is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Irregular Warfare Initiative, specializing in international relations and security studies, with a particular focus on Iran, the South Caucasus, and Eurasian geopolitics. He holds an M.A. in International Security Studies from the University of Leicester. Previously, he served as a Press Officer at the Embassy of Georgia to the Islamic Republic of Iran. He is fluent in Georgian, English, Persian, and Russian.

Gulf International Forum - The Middle East’s Corridor Boom Meets Reality

Gulf International Forum - The Middle East’s Corridor Boom Meets Reality
July

22

2026

In recent years, particularly since the outbreak of the recent conflicts in Gaza and Iran, the Middle East has seen a resurgence of connectivity projects. While some economic “corridors” appear more realistic than others, all are ambitious in scale, with the participating countries striving to elevate their respective geopolitical positions.

Yet this supposed revolution in Middle East connectivity may not be as transformative as it first appeared. Behind the surface, these projects face implementation issues and may exacerbate structural deficiencies in Middle East industry. The success of these projects will ultimately depend on more than political ambition or infrastructure investment. Without greater industrial integration and economic complementarities, many of these corridors risk becoming pathways for trade rather than catalysts for much deeper transformation.

Read the full article on The Gulf International Forum.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

July 22, 2026

Jamestown - Middle Corridor Development Lacks Security Component

Jamestown - Middle Corridor Development Lacks Security Component
July

22

2026

Middle Corridor countries have made numerous efforts over the past few years to expand and strengthen the project. Kazakhstan and Georgia signed an agreement on July 20, introducing a testing period for an e-Permit system for international road freight transport between the two countries. This is one move that works to improve logistics along the Middle Corridor (Kazakh Ministry of Transport; Inbusiness.kz, July 20). Earlier, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine signed an agreement in Astana on May 15 during the Eighteenth Annual Meeting of the Intergovernmental Commission TRACECA  to introduce a single transit document for the Middle Corridor (Open KG; TRACECA, May 18). The document is expected to simplify cargo transportation along the corridor by allowing shipments to move under a single permit. These recent agreements follow positive developments in South Caucasus transport connectivity. Azerbaijan and Georgia launched the Poti–Baku Express Block Train on January 30, followed by an official ceremony on June 3 inaugurating the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway (Azerbaijan Railways, January 30; The Astana Times, June 3).

Together, these projects aim to reduce transit times, improve cargo reliability, and strengthen the Middle Corridor’s competitiveness against alternative routes through Russia and Iran (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, December 13, 2023). Russia’s war against Ukraine boosted the route’s importance over the past several years, the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in 2026 has further highlighted the impetus to develop a corridor that passes across the South Caucasus and lies between Russia and Iran (see EDM, April 19, August 2, 2022, October 28, 2024, January 28, December 4, 2025, March 24, 25, 31).

Read the full article on The Jamestown Foundation.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

July 22, 2026

Joseph Epstein on Azerbaijan-Israel Relationship

Joseph Epstein on Azerbaijan-Israel Relationship
July

21

2026

As Joseph Epstein, Director of the Washington-based Turan Research Center, observes, "The Azerbaijan-Israel relationship is what reliability looks like: two nations that have been there for each other in the hardest moments, from defence technology when Baku was isolated to energy security during Israel's recent war." He further argues that because the relationship rests not only on shared strategic concerns regarding Iran but also on genuine cultural ties and a commitment to multiculturalism, it has become "a model that should inspire Israel's relations across the Muslim world." Together, these developments illustrate that post-2020

Azerbaijan-Israel relations have matured into one of the most resilient and strategically consequential partnerships in Eurasia.

Read the full article on The Research Institute for European and American Studies.

Joseph Epstein is Director of the Turan Research Center.

July 21, 2026

Saratoga Foundation - With an Eye on Tartus: Russia Recalibrates Its Strategy in Post-Assad Syria

Saratoga Foundation - With an Eye on Tartus: Russia Recalibrates Its Strategy in Post-Assad Syria
July

21

2026

Since the fall of the Assad dynasty in late 2024, the Russian military presence has remained a major mystery as to what Moscow’s future will be in Syria. Following Assad’s flight to Moscow on December 8, 2024, Russia has significantly scaled back its presence at its two principal facilities on Syria’s Mediterranean coast: the Tartus naval base and its strategic air base at Khmeimim, located in the Syrian province of Latakia. Russia’s future stay in Syria became even more uncertain after the new government in Damascus terminated the 49-year commercial port management concession granted to the Russian engineering construction business Stroytransgaz.

Russia has also pulled out from Qamishli Airport located in northeastern Syria and restricted its patrolling missions along the border with Israel. This reduced presence has coincided with Moscow’s ever-demanding war effort in Ukraine and the deterioration of Russia’s position in the Middle East following the weakening of its key regional partner – Iran. In fact, for the first time since 2013, Russia currently has no naval presence operating in the Mediterranean Sea.

Yet, over the past several months, Syria’s new leadership has not only maintained working ties with Moscow but even attempted to revive and expand the relationship. This has come as a surprise to many given that the interim government of Ahmed al-Sharaa, once in power, severed Syrian ties with Assad’s other allies such as Iran and Hezbollah. When it comes to Russia, however, the interim Syrian leader has twice visited Moscow: first on October 15, 2025, and then on January 28, earlier this year.

Read the full article on The Saratoga Foundation.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

July 21, 2026

Background

Join the Network

Join our mailing list for expert commentary on major global issues, rapid updates on breaking events, and top content from the Turan Research Center.