Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” of air and special operations against Iran has been a remarkable success. The Israeli Airforce quickly established complete air superiority, operating over Iranian skies with ease; killed the top brass of the Iranian military and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC); inflicted massive damage to Iran’s nuclear program; destroyed over half of the nation’s ballistic missile launchers and caried out crippling strikes on everything from state media headquarters to strategic energy sites. Iran, on the other hand, has only been able to launch some 350 missiles, most of which were intercepted by air defenses.
For Tehran, the Israeli strikes have become an existential threat, especially considering that Israel could well exact much more damage. Israel Defense Forces officials have declared that the operation has just begun and could take weeks to conclude. Moreover, Israel has so far refused to hit certain sensitive but vulnerable targets such as oil refineries and nuclear fuel sites that could lead to radiological contamination. Iranian officials are reportedly desperately seeking a deal with the United States and may have appealed to Russia for asylum should the regime fall, according to Iran International, a London-based Persian news channel.
That little Israel could bring the Islamic Republic to its knees in such a short span of time has embarrassed the Iranian establishment and presented the Iranian propaganda apparatus with a conundrum in explaining the successes of Operation Rising Lion to a domestic audience.
So far, Tehran has used its state information apparatus to minimize the perception of damage inflicted by Jerusalem while exaggerating the damage caused by its missile strikes against Israel. Its propaganda machine has also created an imaginary ring of fire around Iran by claiming that it is fighting not just Israel but a large coalition, which includes the United States, Azerbaijan and Turkey.
For years, Tehran has committed itself to destroying Israel and has bragged about its military superiority while dismissing the Jewish State as a vulnerable colonial outpost reliant on foreign powers for its existence. Now, Israel’s military domination of Iran is turning that narrative on its head.
As a result, it is crucial to save face by convincing Iranians that the mighty Islamic Republic could only be crippled by a coalition of nefarious actors supporting Israel behind the scenes. That message is best summed up by Ehsan Movahedian, an Iranian political analyst and lecturer at Allameh Tabataba’i University in Tehran. “Israel is a fake, small country with no strategic depth and infrastructure, and it would not last a week without the support of the United States, Europe, Turkey and Baku,” he said. “If Turkey and Baku do not export oil to Israel, it cannot survive… Israeli fighter jets will not have the fuel to fly to Iran and manage their attacks without help from Baku and Turkey.”
IRGC-linked Telegram channels have claimed that NATO, Turkey and the U.S. are actively helping Israel defend against barrages of ballistic missiles. Iranian state media has also accused Azerbaijan, Qatar and Jordan of helping shoot down Iranian attacks on Israel while claiming that Tehran “managed to gain the upper hand” against a joint U.S. and Israeli aerial attack. Much like the clearly-doctored AI images of downed Israeli F-35s and fake images of the destruction of Israel’s international airport, the claims of outside support for Israel’s offensive are equally dubious. For example, Iran’s information apparatus has accused Israeli drones of being launched from Azerbaijan, relying accounts of a teenager claiming he saw drones cross the border and unsubstantiated claims made by obscure Omani political analysts.
The Iranian information apparatus seeks to convince its domestic population that the mighty Islamic Republic could only be crippled by a coalition of nefarious actors supporting Israel behind the scenes, while simultaneously claiming to not be crippled at all. While this may seem hypocritical, it is key to keep in mind that consistency and coherence is not necessary in propaganda.
To be sure, Iranian officials and official outlets have been careful about upsetting Turkey while threatening Azerbaijan, the United States, France and the United Kingdom. Despite its propaganda claiming that Ankara has joined the fight, Tehran understands that the Turkish military is the only other Middle East force capable of projecting power beyond its borders and – and shares a large border with Iran.
According to Mike Doran, Director of the Hudson Institute, Iran is particularly afraid of Turkey because of its influence over Iran’s 30 million strong Turkic minority.
The easiest target for Iranian pundits has been Azerbaijan and its President Ilham Aliyev, who has enjoyed warm bilateral relations with Israel since he assumed power in 2003. For years, Tehran has tried to overthrow his secular government by sponsoring a proxy force to create a Shiite rebellion. In recent months, Iran and Azerbaijan have calmed tensions, however Tehran’s recent accusations are likely to enflame them again. By blaming Baku, Iran has proven again that it cannot accept the existence of Azerbaijan as a secular Shiite-majority nation and ethnic homeland for Iran’s largest minority on its border.
Using alleged foreign interference as a propaganda tool is not new for Iran. Following the 1979 Iranian revolution, the Islamic Republic has often tried to use international meddling as a rallying call for a population that does not necessarily support its theocracy. The theme of the secular nationalist Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh who was removed in an American and British backed coup in 1953 is often mentioned by the regime. The revolution itself was largely made possible by over a century of British and then American and Soviet meddling and exploitation of Iran’s oil. By placing the Israeli attacks in the continuity of foreign interference, Iran hopes to elicit a nationalist response from its population while both denying and justifying its military impotence.
These steps exude desperation and are likely to fail. The Islamic Republic is too hated by its own people to create the needed “rally around the flag” effect. Also, distrust for the regime’s narratives such as that Iran is strong and can beat Israel is proven by the millions who fled Tehran after Israeli bombings and President Donald Trump called for their evacuation.
The regime’s messaging, like its defenses, is collapsing under pressure. For a government that has survived decades by projecting strength, the humiliating exposure of its vulnerabilities may prove fatal. Whether by bombs or by truth, the foundations of the Islamic Republic are beginning to crack.
Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.