Turan Research Center

Introduction

Tajikistan, the only Persian-speaking republic amidst a sea of Turkic Central Asian states, has emerged as the latest arena in a quiet yet consequential contest. At the heart of this geopolitical struggle are two rival forces: on one side, Iran, aiming to reassert cultural and strategic dominance over what it sees as the broader Persianate world; on the other side, Turkey and Azerbaijan, spearheading the Turkic revival through institutions like the Organization of Turkic States (OTS). This contest is less overtly militaristic and more ideological, infrastructural, and economic. Yet, the implications extend far beyond the immediate neighbors, also affecting players like Israel and the United States, who have significant interests in the alignment of Central Asia.

Historical and Cultural Foundations

Tajikistan’s connection to Iran is grounded in what Sayyid Amir Arjomand termed the “Persianate society”—a sphere defined by Persian linguistic and cultural influence. Though the Soviet project created a distinct Tajik nation in 1929, the underlying language and heritage remained resolutely Persian. The Tajik variant of Persian, shaped by Russian and Uzbek overlays and written in the Cyrillic script, retains a closer resemblance to classical Persian literature than even modern-day Persian of Iran. This linguistic bridge offers Iran an organic opening for cultural diplomacy and ideological exportation

Despite this affinity, relations between the two countries have been tumultuous since Tajikistan’s independence in 1992. During the civil war, Iran backed the United Tajik Opposition (UTO), offering both political and possible financial support. This drew the ire of the Tajik government, which viewed Iranian involvement with deep suspicion. Tensions thawed after the 1997 peace treaty, and for over a decade, Iran became a significant economic partner, investing in hydroelectric plants, tunnels, and media initiatives.

That all changed in 2013 when Iranian billionaire Babak Zanjani was accused of money laundering through Tajik banks, causing a rupture in trust. The situation deteriorated further in 2015 when Iran hosted Muhiddin Kabiri, the exiled leader of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), then banned by the Tajik authorities. Kabiri met with Ayatollah Khamenei, prompting Tajikistan to veto Iran’s accession to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and freeze bilateral cooperation. Tajik street protests followed, and Tajikistan accused Iran of organizing war crimes and preparing Islamic terrorists. The Tajik leader referred to a “so-called friendly country” and claimed IRPT members had converted to Shi’ism, reinforcing the narrative of the IRPT being an extension of Iranian influence. Iran accused the National Bank of Tajikistan of money laundering, which was later confirmed to be false. All cooperation programs were curtailed.

Economic Resurgence and Strategic Positioning

The diplomatic chill began to thaw in the second half of 2024, when Iran and Tajikistan found common cause in addressing regional instability. Shared fears of Taliban resurgence and ISIS-Khorasan terrorism catalyzed renewed dialogue. President Masoud Pezeshkian’s January 2025 visit to Dushanbe marked a turning point, resulting in the signing of 23 memoranda of understanding across energy, infrastructure, and cultural sectors.

Iran sees Tajikistan as a key partner for expanding access to Central Asian markets. Among its most significant offers is the proposal to link Tajikistan to the Chabahar Port, developed with India. This port would allow Tajikistan direct access to international waters. Iran’s goal is to undermine the appeal of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor and the Middle Corridor, both championed by Azerbaijan and Turkey.

However, trade volumes still reflect Iran’s limited role. While trade increased by nearly 50% in 2024, it only amounted to $378 million—significantly less than Tajikistan’s $1.12 billion trade with Russia. Iran remains an ambitious but junior partner in economic terms.

The Cultural Playbook and Its Limitations

Iran continues to pour resources into cultural diplomacy. Initiatives include establishing Persian-speaking associations, funding cultural festivals, offering scholarships for Tajik students, and attempting to revive Persian script usage. It even opened branches of Iranian universities in Tajikistan and invested in joint cultural productions. But the results have been mixed.

Tajikistan’s secular elite remains wary. Cultural efforts often double as soft propaganda campaigns, and Iran’s religious conservatism clashes with Tajikistan’s more secular governance. The attempt to launch a joint TV channel was blocked, with authorities citing concerns that it would serve as a vehicle for Iranian ideological messaging.

One glaring example of this cultural friction was the Iranian TV series Paytakht. Produced with participation from Tajik actresses, the series became controversial when the actresses revealed that Iranian producers attempted to enforce hijab and promote Islamic themes, reflecting the values of the Iranian Ministry of Culture and Islamic Guidance.

President Rahmon himself has pushed back against Iranian cultural dominance, emphasizing Tajikistan’s Aryan heritageand rejecting the idea that Tajiks are merely part of a broader Iranian identity. This divergence in worldview makes long-term Iranian cultural integration a hard sell.

Propaganda, Indoctrination, and the Israeli Connection

One of the more controversial aspects of Iran’s cultural outreach in Tajikistan is its covert ideological influence, particularly the promotion of anti-Semitic and anti-Israel sentiment. Educational institutions like Al-Mostafa University in Qom serve not only as centers for religious education but also as potential recruitment hubs for the IRGC Quds Force.

In October 2023, the Association of Tajik Muslim Youth issued a letter condemning the “child-killing Zionist regime” and expressing support for the Palestinian resistance, referencing Quranic verses about just war. The statement, published less than two weeks after the October 7 Hamas massacre, employed language that mirrored classic Iranian euphemisms— “global Zionism” as a stand-in for global Jewry. While the letter didn’t explicitly justify the massacre, it echoed the regime’s usual denial-and-deflect tactic: ignore the atrocities, blame the victim.

The statement linked directly to Al-Mostafa University, suggesting a concerted effort to propagate Iranian ideological narratives through Tajik proxies. Tajik officials, fully aware of this dynamic, have cracked down on book distributions and scrutinized educational exchanges.

Proxy Networks and Sectarian Outreach

Iran’s involvement in Tajikistan extends beyond traditional diplomacy and ideological messaging. It reflects a broader strategy Tehran has refined since 1979: cultivating influence through proxies. This tactic, while more visible in the Middle East, is increasingly present in Central Asia, particularly where Shi’a populations offer an opening.

Tehran has turned its attention to Tajikistan’s small but symbolically useful Shi’a minority. While Twelver Shi’a are few, Iran has focused on Ismailis, also known as Sevener Shi’a, as a potential ideological constituency. Iranian actors view this community as receptive to messaging that promotes Islamic unity under Tehran’s spiritual and political umbrella.

Security Collaboration and the Double Game

Security concerns offer Iran and Tajikistan common ground. Both nations regard radical Sunni groups like ISIS-Khorasan as existential threats. Iran labels such actors “Takfiri”—a pejorative for violent Sunnis who view Shi’ites as apostates. But Iran’s engagement in the security domain is far from one-dimensional.

The IRGC’s Quds Force has been caught recruiting Tajik nationals for regional operations. Muhammad Ali Burhanov, also known as Samad al-Tajiki, was recruited by the IRGC and later linked to multiple foiled terror attacks in Central Asia, including arson attempts on Jewish and Western targets.

Military collaboration continues, nonetheless. In May 2022, Iran inaugurated a factory in Dushanbe to produce Ababil-2 drones—an answer to Turkey’s widely successful Bayraktar drone diplomacy across the region. These efforts aim to counterbalance Ankara’s growing sway in places like Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan.

The Turkic Push: Pragmatism Over Propaganda

While Iran continues to build its engagement with Tajikistan through the language of shared heritage and Islamic identity, Turkey and Azerbaijan are charting a course that speaks in terms of roads, railways, ports, and pipelines. The Organization of Turkic States (OTS), formerly seen as a ceremonial gathering of linguistic cousins, has transformed into a dynamic mechanism for geopolitical coordination. Its expansion has alarmed Tehran, which now describe it as a “Turkic NATO,” developed by the “Zionist entity” and designed to advance its interests in Central Asia. This framing highlights the growing effectiveness of Turkic cooperation, particularly in contrast to Iran’s often ideological outreach.

Tajikistan has become an unexpected but central target in this new Turkic orientation. Despite not being a Turkic-speaking country, its participation is actively sought by Ankara and Baku. President Emomali Rahmon’s 2024 visit to Azerbaijan was treated as a major breakthrough, culminating in the signing of numerous bilateral agreements. These agreements, spanning trade, energy, infrastructure, and technological collaboration, indicated a clear pivot toward practical alignment rather than linguistic or ethnic solidarity. While Iran made moves to counter this engagement, hosting Tajik delegations and offering alternatives like the Chabahar Port corridor, the scale and pace of Turkish and Azerbaijani activity were difficult to match.

Trans-Caspian Strategy and the Middle Corridor

One of the core instruments of the Turkic states’ regional strategy is the Middle Corridor—a transcontinental route linking China to Europe through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Turkey. Tajikistan’s involvement in this framework would represent a major redirection of its external economic orientation. The complementary Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor offers logistical passage across the Caspian and onward into the Caucasus, further reducing the role of Iranian or Russian transit options. From Baku to Istanbul, the vision is clear: integrate Tajikistan into a web of infrastructure that is modern, efficient, and geopolitically autonomous.

The vision is already being translated into concrete partnerships. Azerbaijan has opened discussions with Dushanbe on energy cooperation, with potential collaboration in fossil fuel extraction and transit. These moves are more than speculative. Analysts inside Iran expressed concern that if Tajikistan develops domestic hydrocarbon resources and partners with Azerbaijan, it could soon become part of the Trans-Caspian energy framework. The long-term implication, from Iran’s standpoint, is the loss of a vital frontier—one that might instead become a gateway for Turkic, and possibly Western-aligned, influence.

Why the Turkic Offer Resonates

What should make the Turkic offer especially appealing to Dushanbe is its strategic flexibility. Unlike Iranian cultural diplomacy, which often carries religious or ideological weight, the Turkic model is pointedly non-prescriptive. While Turkey certainly promotes its soft power and historical ties in the Turkic world, there is no requirement for Tajikistan to adopt linguistic changes, religious alignment, or political messaging. The deal on the table is practical: access to energy networks, infrastructure funding, regional platforms, and logistical integration. For a state like Tajikistan, governed by a largely secular regime and focused on stability and development, the minimalist, transactional style of Turkic engagement would be far easier to absorb.

Furthermore, Turkish and Azerbaijani engagement increasingly overlaps with Western technical and commercial interests, enhancing its attractiveness. These corridors—both transport and energy—serve not only regional purposes but also larger geo-economic strategies stretching to Europe and beyond. Tajikistan’s involvement in the Turkic routes would effectively insert it into a Eurasian trade architecture that favors diversification and strategic autonomy. While Iran speaks of shared civilization and Islamic awakening, the Turkic world presents ports, pipelines, and predictable partnerships.

Conclusion

Iran’s initiatives during recent official visits to Tajikistan demonstrate a strategic effort to counter the influence of Turkic powers, particularly Turkey and Azerbaijan, in Central Asia. The Islamic Republic is increasingly concerned about the growing investments by Turkic states, which threaten to diminish its regional influence. To counter this, Iran is actively seeking to expand its influence in Tajikistan, leveraging shared Persian cultural and linguistic ties to strengthen bilateral relations, despite the strained relationship between the two countries and Iran’s alleged support for the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT). This strategy includes economic initiatives, such as promoting Tajikistan’s access to the Chabahar Port, and military cooperation, exemplified by the 2022 establishment of an Ababil-2 drone factory in Dushanbe. By fostering these ties, Iran aims to position Tajikistan as a strategic partner in Central Asia, potentially countering the influence of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) led by Turkey and Azerbaijan, and observes Tajikistan as a proxy in Central Asia. However, Tajikistan’s secular governance, its ban on the IRPT, with which Iran has extensive ties with, since 2015, and its participation in the 2023 Dushanbe summit alongside Turkic states suggest that it is unlikely to become a mere proxy for Iran, complicating Tehran’s efforts to shape regional dynamics.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center, a resident Iran expert at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, a research fellow at the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, a professor of the Persian language at Ariel University, and a Captain in the reserves of the Israeli Defense Forces Intelligence.

Hussain Ehsani is a researcher focused on the Middle East, previously serving as a senior researcher at the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies. He holds a master’s degree from the University of Tehran.