Turan Research Center

When the leaders of long-warring Armenia and Azerbaijan met at the White House on August 8, they initialed a peace agreement—not a final treaty, but a gateway to one. They also signed a joint declaration establishing the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), a twenty-five-mile corridor designed to link Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenia. Together, these moves mark major wins for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the United States. At the same time, Russia emerges as the biggest loser.

The Trump administration deserves credit for arbitrating the sensitive talks over a brutal conflict that displaced more than a million people and left more than 35,000 dead. But the diplomatic breakthrough was also made possible by a series of Russian miscalculations and by Moscow’s disregard for the sovereignty of its neighbors.

If the United States wants to build on this achievement, then it should promote Armenia’s regional integration, move quickly to transform the TRIPP from an idea into a reality, and deepen its ties with other countries in the region. Doing so would weaken Russia’s grip on the South Caucasus, which Moscow has long treated as part of its own domain, much like it has with Ukraine. Despite the independence of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia continues to view their borders as fluid markers of power, subject to revision at will. 

Read the full article, co-written with Sheila Paylan, at the Atlantic Council.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center at the Yorktown Institute.

Sheila Paylan is a human rights lawyer and senior legal consultant with the United Nations.