Turan Research Center

Given the intensity of the recent military confrontation between Iran and Israel, Tehran's influence in the South Caucasus could experience fundamental changes. The short war between the Islamic Republic and Israel/United States has underscored the shifting balance of power in the Middle East, with Israel now emerging as the dominant military force in the region. The relative weakening of Iranian power is set to impact its neighbors, and the South Caucasus region has been particularly vulnerable to geopolitical reverberations from instability in the Middle East.

One of the possible repercussions is the impact on the ongoing negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Given the fragile nature of the talks and Baku’s far more powerful position vis-à-vis Armenia, Iran’s more retrenched posture could further embolden Azerbaijan regarding the opening of the Zangezur corridor, a move opposed by the Armenian side. For the moment, however, there is no evident shift in Azerbaijan’s posture indicating that it might encroach on Armenia’s territory. Baku is pragmatic and understands that such a move would kill the ongoing peace process with Yerevan. Furthermore, a forceful solution to the Zangezur corridor issue would destroy the good relations Baku has cultivated with Tehran, which is highly interested in preserving the existing balance of power in the South Caucasus.

Read more on Caucasus Watch.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.