March 01, 2026
Caucasus Watch - NATO and the South Caucasus: Lack of Vision or Strategic Withdrawal?
NATO’s political cohesion crisis has transformed the alliance enlargement from a forward-operating strategic instrument into a reputational liability. In the South Caucasus, this effectively removes membership as a credible policy trajectory for Georgia, and eliminates any potential aspirations for Armenia or Azerbaijan. The alliance’s regional posture is transitioning from institutional expansion to transactional engagement.
Russia’s war in Ukraine has paradoxically frozen NATO’s South Caucasus ambitions, not accelerated them. Most likely, Turkey’s regional influence will increasingly substitute for NATO’s collective footprint in the South Caucasus.
Since 2022, NATO has undergone a significant doctrinal reorientation. While the accession of Finland and Sweden appeared to validate the continuation of enlargement as a central policy vector, these were exceptional cases – advanced, Western countries with advanced military compatibility and no territorial disputes.
Read the full article on Caucasus Watch.
Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.