January 05, 2026
CHOCE - China’s Shifting Calculus in the South Caucasus: Cases of Armenia and Azerbaijan

China’s engagement with the South Caucasus is undergoing a major transformation. Once a peripheral region in Beijing’s wider engagement across the Eurasian continent the South Caucasus has now turned into a focal point for Beijing’s expanded trade, deeper political cooperation, and a more active economic footprint across the region. Indicative of Beijing’s shifting priorities are the relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan which throughout 2025 have assumed strategic importance.
This shift in Beijing’s approach reflects broader changes in Eurasian connectivity and the intensifying competition among major powers in the South Caucasus to shape emerging transport and energy corridors.
Boosted by the Middle Corridor
A central factor behind this recalibration is the rising prominence of the Middle Corridor – the transcontinental route linking the Black Sea to Central Asia. Although the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) initially prioritized the more established northern route through Russia, the geopolitical landscape altered dramatically after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Sanctions, disrupted logistics, and heightened security risks weakened the reliability of the Russian pathway, prompting Beijing to reassess and diversify its transit options. The South Caucasus, geographically located along the shortest land bridge between China and Europe, naturally emerged as an attractive alternative.
Read the full article on China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe.
Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.