Turan Research Center

The deterioration of relations between Turkey and Israel following October 7 raised important questions about the potential consequences for relations between Ankara and Washington. Such concerns appeared justified. A Republican controlled Congress remained broadly skeptical of Turkey, influential members of the incoming administration were closely aligned with Israel, and Turkey's economic vulnerabilities seemed likely to provide President Donald Trump with leverage similar to that employed during his first term.

Contrary to these expectations, developments over the following eighteen months produced a different outcome. While relations between Turkey and Israel continued to worsen, with Ankara remaining one of Hamas's most vocal state supporters and intensifying its criticism of Israel, relations between Washington and Ankara improved significantly at the leadership level. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's September 2025 visit to the White House, his first in six years, generated progress on several longstanding disputes, including the F-35 program, CAATSA sanctions, and the Halkbank case, while also opening new avenues for cooperation in trade and civilian nuclear energy. President Trump's public characterization of Erdoğan as a "highly respected" and "tough" leader reflected the increasingly personal nature of bilateral ties.[1]

The 2026 Iran war brought this apparent contradiction into sharp focus. Despite declining to participate in the American campaign against Iran and instead positioning itself as a mediator, Turkey largely escaped the public criticism directed at several European allies for their reluctance to contribute. The episode demonstrated both the strategic importance Washington continues to assign to Turkey and the growing tensions inherent in a policy of accommodation toward Ankara.

Read the full article on the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University.

Joseph Epstein is Director of the Turan Research Center.