Iran and the United States are engaged in intense negotiations to resolve the deadlock around Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, as well as its support for what remains of the so-called “Axis of Resistance.” The diplomatic opening is narrow and fragile, shaped by deep mistrust and competing priorities. The United States aims to leverage Iran’s current vulnerabilities—a battered economy, domestic instability, and recent military defeats—to obtain substantial concessions on several fronts. Iran, for its part, seeks relief from crippling sanctions while insisting that its national sovereignty be respected and that its capacity to intervene across the region be preserved.
At the heart of the negotiations is Iran’s nuclear program. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which placed strict limits on Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for partial sanctions relief, has been defunct since 2018, when U.S. President Donald Trump withdrew Washington from the agreement. In his second term, Trump has continuously demanded a more comprehensive deal.
Still, if Washington’s objective is more limited—preventing Iran from advancing its nuclear program or acquiring a nuclear weapon—a narrower agreement may be within reach. Iranian officials have hintedthat they would consider capping uranium enrichment at civilian-grade levels or transferring their stockpile of highly enriched uranium to international custody in exchange for significant sanctions relief. Such measures would roll back Iran’s nuclear timeline and restore a degree of transparency without forcing Iran to abandon uranium enrichment. Even so, a limited nuclear understanding will be difficult to implement. Iran’s nuclear capacity expanded significantly after the JCPOA’s collapse, with enrichment jumping to 60 percent purity, and stockpiles of enriched uranium growing far beyond previous limits.
Read the full article on the Gulf International Forum.
Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.