The ongoing destabilization of Iran poses one of the most complex strategic dilemmas faced by Turkey in the twenty-first century. This assessment is far from self-evident, as it conflicts with the widespread perception of Ankara and Tehran as historical rivals.
Turkey fears a resumption of Iran’s disruption and meddling in Syria. For its part, Iran fears Turkey’s growing influence in the Caucasus, which it views as detrimental to its strategic interests. Following the fall of the Bashar Assad regime in Syria, Iran accused Turkey and Israel of a joint anti-Iranian conspiracy. Other arenas of contest between Turkey and Iran also exist.
However, regarding current events, a range of geopolitical calculations shapes Turkey’s stance on the anti-regime protests in Iran American threats to act against the regime. This paper posits that Ankara is gripped by a “Crisis of Calculation.” The Turkish political and security establishment views the potential collapse of the Islamic Republic not as an opportunity for regional advancement but as a prelude to ethno-sectarian fragmentation that could irreparably damage Turkey’s territorial integrity and demographic stability.
Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.