August 18, 2026
JISS - Iran’s Waning Gulf Leverage Is Exposing Its Caspian Vulnerabilities
Reading the international and Israeli press, one might get the impression that Iran is winning and still controls the Strait of Hormuz. Nothing could be further from reality. With a U.S.-imposed naval blockade in place and the Hormuz issue winding down, Iran’s power projection in the Gulf is gradually but steadily eroding, while the Axis of the Resistance exists only in name.
The erosion of Iranian power and control in the Gulf is also weakening Iran’s influence in other regions, including the Caspian basin. Although the region draws fewer headlines than the Gulf, its strategic importance to Iran and neighboring countries is hard to overstate. The Caspian Sea is rich in maritime resources, making the agreed division of those resources among the Caspian countries strategically important.
Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute of Strategy and Security.
Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.