Executive Summary
Operation Epic Fury/Roaring Lion launched on February 28, 2026, has placed the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Artesh) under wartime stress more severe than at any time since the Iran-Iraq War. The Artesh fought in an expanded but secondary role, and its Air Force, Navy, and Air Defense components suffered severe — possibly irreparable — losses. At the same time, its Ground Forces remained structurally intact because there was no ground invasion. A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire took effect on April 8, 2026. By late May 2026, Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, publicly claimed that Iran had ‘rebuilt its armed forces’ during the ceasefire.
This report critically assesses five key questions: (1) the reality of IRGC-Artesh tensions; (2) the limits of Iranian military doctrine as a predictive tool; (3) the Artesh’s ideological alignment with the regime and the implausibility of large-scale defection; (4) the Artesh’s warfighting capacity and what Iran’s doctrine of ‘mosaic defense’ promises; and (5) what to expect if hostilities resume. An additional section examines Persian-language Telegram channels and what they reveal about the situation on the ground.
Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.