Turan Research Center

The war with Iran has consumed Washington’s bandwidth for the last month and a half. But the conflict has distracted from more than Ukraine. In the South Caucasus, Russian President Vladimir Putin is waging a quiet campaign to reverse one of the Trump administration’s signature foreign policy achievements—the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal—and doing so on the cheap.

The centerpiece of that deal is the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). This transit corridor would link Azerbaijan to its exclave, Nakhchivan, through Armenian territory and open a land bridge from Central Asia to global markets, bypassing both Russia and Iran. TRIPP is more than infrastructure. It is America’s foothold in the South Caucasus and the key to unlocking Central Asia’s vast rare-earth reserves—resources essential for smartphones, electric vehicles, and advanced weapons systems—at a moment when the United States relies on China for roughly 70 percent of those critical imports.

Armenia holds parliamentary elections on June 7. The vote is a referendum not just on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government but on the country’s geopolitical orientation—West or Russia, peace or managed conflict. If TRIPP becomes reality, Russia loses its chokehold on Caucasus trade routes and its leverage over two former colonies.

Read the full article on The National Interest.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.