The political survival of Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan has been nothing short of remarkable. Since rising to power during Armenia’s 2018 Velvet Revolution, the embattled prime minister has withstood the fallout from the 2020 Karabakh war, open hostility from the Kremlin-backed Armenian Apostolic Church, and alleged coup attempts. His pursuit of peace with Azerbaijan and closer ties with the West has earned him powerful enemies—from the Russian government to diaspora organizations to Armenia’s former leaders.
With a final peace deal on the horizon and parliamentary elections looming next year, the stakes could not be higher. If Pashinyan holds on, he may guide Armenia into a long-sought era of peace. If he falls, the country risks sliding back into Moscow’s orbit, as its neighbor Georgia has, and could reignite conflict in the South Caucasus.
At the August 8 Washington Peace Summit, US president Donald Trump praised Pashinyan’s courage. After 30 years of bitter conflict over Karabakh, pursuing peace with Azerbaijan—especially after Baku’s battlefield victory—was politically difficult. If Washington wants to secure that peace, it must also secure Pashinyan’s political survival. Despite remaining Armenia’s most popular politician, he now polls at just 17 percent,reflecting widespread disillusionment and apathy.
Read the full article on the National Interest.
Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.