Home/ Articles

December 12, 2025

TNI - Foreign Policy Doesn’t Win Elections, But It Could Decide the GOP’s Fate

ByJoseph Epstein

TNI - Foreign Policy Doesn’t Win Elections, But It Could Decide the GOP’s Fate

The dictum that foreign policy doesn’t win elections has long been a part of the conventional wisdom of American politics. Yet as the Republican Party enters an ideological civil war, with the MAGA movement splintering into competing factions, foreign policy has become a major battlefield. 

At the center of the new divide, which will determine what MAGA will stand for after Trump, is Tucker Carlson, who has positioned himself as the leader of an isolationist, grievance-driven bloc. Mixing conspiracy theories, antisemitic tropes, and sympathetic treatment of authoritarian governments hostile to the United States, Carlson has repeatedly worked to undermine Trump-aligned foreign policy goals.

The struggle is less about specific policies, however, than about who will ultimately control the movement. Trump built MAGA and remains its most powerful figure, yet by not policing his message, he has left space for Carlson to shape the narrative. Although Trump once called him “Kooky Tucker Carlson” in response to Carlson’s hysterical warnings that bombing Iran could trigger World War III, he has largely avoided confronting him directly. Carlson has been open about his intent, saying after a recent interview with white nationalist Nick Fuentes, “What happens after Trump goes? That’s what this is about.” If Trump does not draw clear boundaries, he risks allowing the movement he built to be defined by its most extreme elements.

Read the full article on the National Interest.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.