Russian warplanes buzzing into NATO and European Union airspace — prompting the top diplomat in Brussels to accuse Moscow of “gambling with war” — have reignited fears of escalation beyond Ukraine. Yet while attention is fixed on the Baltic, Moscow has waged an information war in its backyard: Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Finland raced into NATO; Moldova braced for hybrid attacks; Poland fortified its eastern flank. This was all for good reason, but seizing and holding territory is far more costly than Kremlin planners seemed to assume. Unable to replicate Ukraine-style invasions elsewhere, at least while engaged in a full-scale war, Russia is falling back on the tools it knows best — covert influence campaigns, disinformation, destabilization and military and intelligence probing.
Moldova remains Moscow’s prime laboratory, where, according to President Maia Sandu, hundreds of millions of euros have been spent on political meddling. Russia has also interfered in elections in both the Czech Republic and Romania. Now, similar warning signs are flashing farther east — in Kazakhstan and Armenia.
Read the full article on the Washington Post.
Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute. Seth Cropsey is President of the Yorktown Institute.