Turan Research Center

Since the 1990s, Kazakhstan’s connections with the South Caucasus have accelerated. Kazakhstan’s recent foreign policy toward the South Caucasus is indicative of this trend. Astana has always maintained active ties with Tbilisi and Baku, and it has recently boosted contacts with Yerevan through mutual high-level visits (Arka, April 15, 2025). On February 11, Kazakh Ambassador to Armenia Bolat Imanbayev and Armenian Deputy Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructure Armen Simonyan discussed strengthening Kazakhstan–Armenia cooperation in logistics and transport, particularly in establishing direct air service and building business, cultural, and humanitarian ties (Facebook/kazakhembassyarm; Arminfo, February  11). In November 2025, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met in Astana. During this visit, they signed numerous cooperation agreements on digitalization, artificial intelligence, and innovation (Prime Minister of Armenia, November 20, 2025;The Astana Times, November 21, 2025). Kazakhstan’s strengthening cooperation with the South Caucasus is just one way it is diversifying its partnerships, particularly in the realm of economics and transit.

Read the full article on the Jamestown Foundation.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

J.D. Vance toured Armenia and Azerbaijan on February 9-11, the first such high-level US visit to Armenia. The trip underlined two things: America’s indifference to Russia’s claimed areas of influence, and Kremlin weakness.

Vance’s visit underlines that while the Trump administration seeks better relations with Russia, the United States is undaunted about entry to an area the Kremlin likes to call its “near abroad”.

The vice president’s visit brought a frustrated response from the Russian state-controlled newspaper Kommersant. “There’s disappointment, frustration and a sense of helplessness,” the author wrote of Vance’s arrival in the South Caucasus. “Because it’s precisely in this region that Russia’s position has eroded noticeably in recent years. The main reason is obvious: excessive absorption in the Ukrainian conflict ties the hands in all other areas.”

Read the full article on the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

A political earthquake hit Kyrgyzstan on February 10.

The tandem of President Sadyr Japarov and security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev was seemingly broken when Japarov dismissed Tashiyev from his post. The reason given for relieving Tashiyev of his position was that it was “in the interests of our state, in order to prevent a split in society, including between government structures,” which hinted that something serious had caused the rift.

Old Friends

After the brief tumultuous events of October 5-6, 2020, that saw the government of President Sooronbai Jeenbekov ousted in the wake of parliamentary elections plagued by violations, Japarov came to power and appointed Tashiyev to be head of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB). The two have remained in those positions and were often referred to as a tandem. Some believe Tashiyev has actually been the one making many of the important state decisions.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Iran may have a new weapon in its shadow war against the West—and it’s one that Tehran spent decades fighting: Sunni jihadists.

Last week, Azerbaijani security forces arrested three men planning to attack the Israeli embassy in Baku. The suspects claimed allegiance to ISIS-K, the Afghan branch of the Islamic State responsible for the devastating Crocus City Hall massacre in Moscow that killed 145 people in 2024. On its face, this looks like another data point in ISIS-K’s expanding campaign of global terror.

But look closer, and a more troubling picture emerges—one that should concern policymakers in Washington. The South Caucasus is becoming a new front in the shadow war between Iran and its enemies, and the Islamic Republic may be using Sunni extremists as a cover for its own malign activities.

Read the full article on The National Interest.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.

Kyrgyzstan held early parliamentary elections at the end of November 2025 that were moved forward by a year so that they would not overlap with the campaign for the presidential election scheduled for January 2027.

On February 9, a group of 75 former officials and notable figures from various spheres of society publicly submitted a letter to the president and speaker of parliament calling on them to “immediately initiate a new election for president.”

While there has yet to be any official response, such a proposal is likely to be accepted, leaving anyone who planned on running against incumbent President Sadyr Japarov with little time to organize a campaign.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan’s leaders last week both paid visits to Pakistan, with trade and connectivity right at the top of their agendas.

When it comes to land-linking landlocked Central Asia with the big markets and seaports of South Asia, there is, of course, the not-so-small obstacle of Afghanistan to negotiate. So for Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the development of routes through Afghanistan to Pakistan remains an essential objective.

The Central Asian states have enjoyed good relations with Pakistan for many years. What’s more, until recently, each time Central Asian-Pakistani relations required the participation of Afghanistan, it was Central Asia that looked to Pakistan to take the lead in negotiations with their immediate neighbour.

Read the full article on BNE Intellinews.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

In late January, U.S. Special Envoy for South and Central Asia, Sergio Gor visited Turkmenistan. Accompanying Gor was U.S. Secretary of the Army Daniel Driscoll.

Driscoll’s presence in Turkmenistan, a country with a roughly 1,150-kilometer border with Iran, sparked some speculation that his visit was related to escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran. But while it is unusual for any top foreign military officials to visit Turkmenistan, U.S. military officials have stopped by Turkmenistan relatively often over the course of the last 30 years.

Neutral Turkmenistan

A good trivia question about Central Asia is, which country was the first to join NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) program?

The answer is Turkmenistan, in May 1994, and NATO had just created the PfP program in January of that year.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Joseph Epstein comments for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty on U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance's upcoming trip to Armenia and Azerbaijan.

“It’s noteworthy that it’s Vance on this trip,” Joseph Epstein, director of the Washington-based Yorktown Institute's Turan Research Center, told RFE/RL. “He represents a more isolationist part of the White House, but he’s going to be championing deals on this trip that weaken Russian and Iranian influence -- and the throughline is critical minerals.”

Vance will be the most senior US official to ever visit Armenia and is the first to visit Azerbaijan since former US Vice President Dick Cheney in 2008.

“There hasn’t been engagement with the region of this kind since the Bush administration, and that was largely all through Georgia,” said Epstein.

Read the full article on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.

Tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia persist, and this despite the tacit rapprochement that materialized as a result of the meeting between the presidents of the two countries in October in Dushanbe, Tajikistan.  

During the talks, held on the margins of a CIS summit, Putin expressed regret that the Russian military shot down an Azeri civilian airliner in late 2024, killing 39 people. He blamed a combination of Ukrainian drone activity in Russian airspace and a malfunction in the air defense system. The Russian president pledged full cooperation with investigators and promised that the conduct of all officials involved would be scrutinized. 

Relations had seemed to improve until late December, when the rhetoric took a radical turn for the worse. In a year-end press conference, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov revealed that Baku had been informed that Russia’s investigators had reportedly closed the criminal case.  

Read the full article on the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at Turan Research Center.

Iran is facing a water emergency that hydrologists and environmental experts warn may now be irreversible. Major reservoirs are depleted, groundwater reserves are collapsing, and senior officials are openly warning of citizens rationing water and even evacuating the capital due to water shortages. While the crisis is often attributed to drought or climate change, experts stress that it is overwhelmingly man-made—the cumulative result of decades of over-extraction, mismanagement, and failure to modernize water governance.

Paradoxically, many of the most effective technical solutions to Iran’s water crisis have already been developed by its regional adversary, Israel. Through innovations in drip irrigation, wastewater recycling, desalination, and integrated water management, Israel has achieved water security under harsher natural constraints than Iran faces today. This article argues that Iran’s crisis is no longer a problem of awareness or technology, but of political, financial, and institutional barriers—and that proven Israeli approaches, if accessed indirectly, could still mitigate the most destabilizing consequences of a crisis experts say can no longer be fully reversed.

Read the full article on the Atlantic Council.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center. Dalga Khatinoglu is an independent energy expert.

Turan Research Center Director Joseph Epstein shares his thoughts on the latest U.S.-India trade deal for an N7 Brief.

“The linkage of tariff relief to India curbing Russian oil purchases underscores how energy geopolitics can shape trade agendas, but it also risks oversimplifying New Delhi’s nuanced balancing act. Nevertheless, a meaningful reduction — or halt — in Indian imports of Russian oil would repreent a significant strategic and economic win for the United States and its allies.”

Read the full article on the N7 Foundation.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.

The ongoing destabilization of Iran poses one of the most complex strategic dilemmas faced by Turkey in the twenty-first century. This assessment is far from self-evident, as it conflicts with the widespread perception of Ankara and Tehran as historical rivals. 

Turkey fears a resumption of Iran’s disruption and meddling in Syria. For its part, Iran fears Turkey’s growing influence in the Caucasus, which it views as detrimental to its strategic interests. Following the fall of the Bashar Assad regime in Syria, Iran accused Turkey and Israel of a joint anti-Iranian conspiracy. Other arenas of contest between Turkey and Iran also exist. 

However, regarding current events, a range of geopolitical calculations shapes Turkey’s stance on the anti-regime protests in Iran American threats to act against the regime. This paper posits that Ankara is gripped by a “Crisis of Calculation.” The Turkish political and security establishment views the potential collapse of the Islamic Republic not as an opportunity for regional advancement but as a prelude to ethno-sectarian fragmentation that could irreparably damage Turkey’s territorial integrity and demographic stability.

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

In late January, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev sacked a series of high-ranking officials in the Interior Ministry, National Guard, and the Emergency Situations Ministry.

Their dismissals for corruption overshadowed the firing of the director of the Agency for Control of Narcotics and Illegal Firearms, who was let go for failing badly to combat illegal trafficking and use of drugs.

Poor Results

Ravshan Mamatov was appointed director of the National Center for Narcotics Control in August 2024. In July 2025, a presidential decree transformed the center into the Agency for Control of Narcotics and Illegal Firearms.

On January 27, President Mirziyoyev criticized the work of the Narcotics Control Agency and warned Mamatov to engage in more than simply “analytical work and international cooperation.” Mirziyoyev dismissed Mamatov the next day, and it was not a surprise.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Over the past few months, Russia has been actively engaged in mediation efforts from Israel to Syria to Iran, trying to prevent an already unstable region from devolving into wider conflict.

On January 28, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa paid a visit to Moscow, following a similar trip in October. Two days later, Iranian top national security official Ali Larijani met Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin as Iran scrambled to stave off new U.S. threats of attack over Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Earlier in January, Putin held phone calls with the leaders of Israel and Iran, offering Russian help at preventing a new war between them at a time when Iran had been convulsed with internal protests and was cracking down forcefully on widespread opposition to the regime.

Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian told Putin at the time that Iran was seeking to return calm to the country, according to the Kremlin’s account of the call. The parties also reaffirmed their mutual commitment to further strengthening the Russian-Iranian strategic partnership and the practical implementation of joint economic projects in various fields.

Read the full article on the Stimson Center.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Senior Fellow Alex Grinberg joins ILTV to discuss protests and the ensuing crackdown in Iran. In the interview, Grinberg discusses Tehran's strategic calculation in the face of the protests and U.S. threats.

Watch the full interview here.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced his reform plans on January 20, including structural changes to the government. Arguably, one of the least consequential of those changes is replacing the current bicameral parliament with a unicameral parliament.

Across Central Asia, over the last 35 years, parliaments have repeatedly switched from unicameral to bicameral parliaments, or vice versa, the number of deputies has increased and decreased, and in some cases, parallel bodies have come into existence and later disappeared.

Kazakhstan

When the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991, each of the former republics, including the Central Asian countries of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, had a unicameral, republican Supreme Soviet elected in 1990. These Supreme Soviets continued functioning after independence until 1994, and in the case of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, until 1995.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

“After the Syrian civil war, Turkey was forced to open its doors to millions of refugees, and integrating them into both society and the economy proved to be a very painful process,” says Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak of the Moshe Dayan Center. “Erdoğan was accused for years of failing to stop the waves of migration. It now appears that, in light of the lessons learned from Syria, border security will be kept tight this time.”

Read the full interview on the Times of Israel.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Senior Fellow Alex Grinberg joins CNN-News 18 to discuss the key flaws in the proposal and explains why India and Israel are exercising caution instead of embracing it outright.

Watch the interview here.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Under Donald Trump’s second presidential term, the relations between Russia and India have undergone a major test as New Delhi is increasingly pressured by Washington to take sides in the Russia-West rivalry and lessen its dependence on the import of Russian oil. The goal is to weaken Moscow’s military might, which, as seen by the United States, is buttressed with Indian money.

Though tactically, India might concede to the United States on some points, in the longer run, Washington’s pressure is unlikely to drive a wedge between Russia and India. Instead, a continuation of traditionally close cooperation in the military as well as economic spheres is expected. As ardent adherents of the pursuit of multi-aligned foreign policy, Moscow and New Delhi will push for maintaining freedom of maneuver in foreign relations. Both will avoid making brusque moves, which otherwise would imply them siding against each other. Strategic autonomy will remain at the core of their relations, backed up by the belief in the need to work toward a multipolar world order, regarded by Moscow and New Delhi as a more just version of the global system.

Read the full article on TRENDS Research and Advisory.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

WASHINGTON—A twenty-seven-mile stretch of land running through southern Armenia is poised to reshape the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. On January 13, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Ararat Mirzoyan announced a detailed framework to implement the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP). This US-brokered corridor, which promises to become a vital connectivity link between Europe and Asia, could go down as one of US President Donald Trump’s most impressive foreign policy achievements of his second term.

TRIPP’s connectivity potential

The idea for a US-brokered transport route in southern Armenia that would link the main part of Azerbaijan to Baku’s Nakhchivan exclave grew out of 2025 peace talks between the two countries coordinated by US officials. Azerbaijan wanted to implement a crucial element of its 2020 cease-fire agreement with Armenia—unfettered transport access to Nakhchivan. At the same time, Armenia sought to maintain control over its sovereign territory along the proposed twenty-seven-mile route across its land.

In stepped Trump and his team with a creative solution: a US-led consortium would construct and manage the route, in concert with Armenian authorities, that would in turn safeguard Azerbaijani access to Nakhchivan. At a summit at the White House this past August, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and Trump agreed to implement TRIPP with a view toward a comprehensive Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal. This was a significant achievement: Armenia and Azerbaijan had clashed for more than thirty years, and they had fought a handful of wars in that time that killed tens of thousands.

Read the full article on the Atlantic Council.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.

The massacre of October 7th, returned Israeli society to a face-to-face confrontation with Jewish history. The sadistic mass murder, which took place against the backdrop of internal division within Israeli society, made the concept of a covenant of fate more present than ever. The conduct of the Hamas murderers and the absolute absence of any manifestations of humanity among the Gazans illustrated, with their full horrifying force, the validity of the biblical description of Amalek. Without delving into the depths of halakhic or theological debates, one can agree that Amalek serves as a distinction between an ordinary geopolitical rival and a different kind of enemy—one that attacks the Jews in order to annihilate them.

After the dreadful nadir of the day of the massacre, the Jewish people rose like a lion, struck powerful blows on seven fronts, and neutralized—though did not destroy—its two principal enemies: Hamas and the Iranian regime. The victory is indeed partial, but it is unquestionably a victory, even if the road ahead remains long. It seems there is broad agreement that it is impossible to return to the state of affairs that prevailed among us before the massacre; however, the destination of the movement is unclear. Today it appears more strongly than ever that a covenant of fate and a covenant of destiny are intertwined.

Yet one cannot advance toward a destination without a map and a compass. Thus it is no coincidence that the memorization of a navigation route in the army is called a “route story.” Failure to understand the enemy is one of the principal reasons for the terrible collapse that befell the State of Israel, and this is the first matter that requires immediate correction. However, statements such as “one must not underestimate the enemy” or calls for “assuming responsibility” and “soul-searching” often suffer from vagueness and an excess of emotional charge. Moreover, it is clear that the military and intelligence community in any society are influenced by that same society—by its values and by the spirit of the times (Zeitgeist). It would be naïve and absurd to assume that intelligence assessments are unaffected by what prevails within that society.

Read the full article on Kohelet (Hebrew).

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Ironically, Ukraine’s tragedy had unintended benefits for the new members of the OTS. With the European Union (EU) imposing sanctions on goods transiting Russian territory, the route between Asia and Europe that passed through Central Asia and the South Caucasus emerged as an alternative, and in the four years since, this corridor has seen a rapid expansion of infrastructure. The route coincidentally also runs through the territories of the OTS members, which has given the Turkic states a new basis for cooperation along with the possibility of greatly enriching themselves as they reclaim their place as a premier global trade route.

How far these Turkic states can cooperate remains to be seen and there are countries who have reasons to obstruct this group from becoming a formidable bloc in the center of the Eurasian continent. This article outlines the emergence of the OTS, its prospects for facilitating real cooperation among its members, and the challenges it will face in doing so.

Read the full aritcle on Delphi Global Research Center.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

“In Iran’s political psychology, two factors are traditionally essential for a fundamental transformation: first, the bazaar must enter into sustained strikes and protests; second, the army or national armed forces must side with the people against the ruling power,” said Hussain Ehsani, a research fellow at the Turan Research Center, a Washington, D.C.–based think tank. “At this stage, the first condition has partially materialized. However, it remains unclear whether the bazaar strikes will continue or fade.”

Read the full interview on the National Post.

Hussain Ehsani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The Sahel region of Africa, stretching from Mauritania in the west to Sudan in the east, traditionally was not a main focus of Iran’s foreign policy when it came to the African continent. Geographic distance and the relative poverty of the region’s countries coupled with a heavy security and economic presence of Western countries were major disincentives for Tehran.

Yet, following a series of coups in the Sahel, the presence of Western countries in the region began to shrink, particularly with the withdrawal of French and U.S. military forces from parts of the region. And Iran has moved to fill the geopolitical void, notably providing training and military equipment, such as combat drones and surface-to-air missiles, to Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso.

Iran’s interest in cooperating with the Sahel countries is partially driven by its nuclear program. In 2024, there were reports that Iran was negotiating with Niger’s military, offering advanced military equipment in exchange for access to approximately 300 tons of uranium concentrate from deposits near Arlit in Niger. Iran and Niger denied the deal, which would have been valued at $56 million. The alleged deal may have contributed to tensions with the U.S. military presence in Niger, leading Niger to end its defense cooperation agreement with Washington, prompting a U.S. troop withdrawal.

Read more on the Arab Gulf States Institute.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

As the unrest subsides in Iran, all eyes are on US president Donald Trump and his next moves. While Trump has said that he's weighing "very strong" options, it's not clear if he will deploy the US military to weaken or topple the regime. Which way will Trump go? Iran expert Alex Grinberg answers in conversation with Firstpost's Prathik S Vinod.
Watch the full interview on First Post.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, gave a sober warning to the country on January 13 that this year there could be significantly less water for agriculture in the southern parts of the country.

Nurzhigitov said that as of January 12, there was 1.9 billion cubic meters (bcm) less water in the reservoirs of southern Kazakhstan than on that date in 2025.

The Importance of the Syr-Darya

These areas are part of the Syr Darya Basin. The Syr Darya is one of Central Asia’s two large rivers, the other being the Amu Darya to the south, which runs along the Central Asia-Afghan border.

Equally alarming for Kazakhstan, Nurzhigitov noted that in the mountains of upstream neighboring countries, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where the Syr Darya originates, officials are also reporting low levels in reservoirs. According to the Kazakh Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, the reservoirs in those two countries are a combined 3.2 bcm lower than last year at this time.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Executive Summary

Iran’s replacement of its ambassador to Armenia in late 2025 marks a significant recalibration of Tehran’s regional strategy. The shift from Mehdi Sobhani, who is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force to Khalil Shirgholami, a career diplomat from Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, reflects Tehran’s response to fundamental changes in the South Caucasus geopolitical landscape. The move signals Iran’s acknowledgment that its traditional approach to Armenia — leveraging security relationships and permissive transit arrangements — has become untenable in the face of Armenia’s westward orientation and growing U.S. engagement in the region.

The Strategic Context: A Changing Regional Order

The South Caucasus witnessed dramatic developments in 2025 that reshaped the strategic calculus for all regional actors. Three have been particularly consequential for Iranian interests:

First, the August 2025 U.S.-mediated normalization agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan fundamentally altered the regional balance. This accord, which addresses long-standing territorial disputes and opens pathways for economic integration, represents a significant diplomatic achievement that reduces traditional points of leverage for external powers seeking to exploit regional tensions.

Second, the announcement of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), also known as the Zangezur Corridor, which links Azerbaijan proper with its Nakhchivan exclave via Armenia’s Syunik province, introduces a Western-supervised connectivity framework . TRIPP transcends conventional infrastructure development; it represents a comprehensive connectivity initiative with substantial U.S. commercial, political, and security oversight. For Tehran, this development effectively places Yerevan’s strategic transit corridors, and potentially its border with Armenia, under American scrutiny.

Third, Armenia’s broader pivot toward Western institutions has accelerated under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government. Yerevan has signaled interest in closer cooperation with NATO structures, expanded engagement with the European Union, and diversified security partnerships beyond its traditional reliance on Russia. These shifts reflect Armenia’s strategic reassessment following the 2020 and 2023 conflicts with Azerbaijan, during which Russian security guarantees proved insufficient.

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Kyrgyzstan enters 2026 with the uneasy calm that follows a storm. The parliamentary elections of November 2025 passed almost unnoticed: streets that once boiled with protest are now empty of opposition rallies, and media outlets – pressured by new laws – prefer cautious, sanitized headlines. This quiet marks the culmination of five years since Sadyr Japarov’s inauguration in January 2021 and the April referendum that year on the so-called “Khanstitution” – a constitution that promised stability but, according to critics, returned the country to Central Asia’s authoritarian traditions.

Japarov rose to power on a wave of popular anger. The parliamentary elections of October 2020, marred by widespread allegations of vote-buying and fraud, triggered unrest that toppled then-President Sooronbay Jeenbekov. Freed from prison by a crowd, Japarov – a nationalist previously convicted over the kidnapping of a regional official during protests against foreign mining interests – quickly seized the prime minister’s post and went on to win the presidency. The referendum on the new constitution, dubbed the “Khanstitution” for its heavy presidential bias, was held amid low turnout and allegations of violations, transferring power from parliament into the hands of a single individual: Japarov.

Read the full article on The Diplomat.

Aigerim Turgunbaeva is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Alex Grinberg joins the Russian service of Kaan Radio's "Good Morning, Israel Broadcast." In the interview, he discusses how the conception that chaos would follow the fall of the Iranian regime is a narrative spread by the Islamic Republic targeted at the West. In the interview, Grinberg also discusses:

• The end of the proxy era: after direct strikes between Israel and Iran, whether there are any remaining “rules of the game,” and if a major war is inevitable;

• The great uncertainty: who will succeed the aging Khamenei, and will the transfer of power turn into an elite civil war;

• The Iranian street: how “Generation Z” lives, why young people are abandoning religion en masse, and what the “Woman, Life, Freedom” movement has become today.

Watch the full interview here (Russian).

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The Ukraine War has turned Kyrgyzstan into a key intermediary for Russian imports, but economic growth is unevenly shared.

In Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan—a mountainous, landlocked country of 7 million people—has long relied on remittances and gold exports to sustain its economy. In recent years, however, the country has experienced an unexpected surge in economic growth. Preliminary figures indicate GDP growth of 10.2 percent during the first 11 months of 2025, while year-end projections from the World Bank and the IMF range from approximately 6.8 percent to 8.5 percent. These figures place Kyrgyzstan among the fastest-growing economies in the region. If current growth rates continue, Kyrgyzstan could begin to close the gap with Kazakhstan’s GDP per capita within the next five years.

A significant share of this growth is directly linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Western sanctions that followed. As sanctions restricted Russia’s access to Western markets, Moscow increasingly turned to Bishkek as a convenient intermediary. 

Re-exports of machinery, electronics, and goods with potential dual-use applications—many originating in China or the European Union—flowed through Kyrgyzstan alongside remittances, infrastructure financing, and cryptocurrency transactions that help sustain Russia’s wartime economy. Russia has relied not only on Kyrgyzstan’s financial system but also, to varying degrees, on Armenia and smaller volumes routed through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.

Read the full article on The National Interest.

Aigerim Turgunbaeva is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

China’s engagement with the South Caucasus is undergoing a major transformation. Once a peripheral region in Beijing’s wider engagement across the Eurasian continent the South Caucasus has now turned into a focal point for Beijing’s expanded trade, deeper political cooperation, and a more active economic footprint across the region. Indicative of Beijing’s shifting priorities are the relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan which throughout 2025 have assumed strategic importance.

This shift in Beijing’s approach reflects broader changes in Eurasian connectivity and the intensifying competition among major powers in the South Caucasus to shape emerging transport and energy corridors.

Boosted by the Middle Corridor

A central factor behind this recalibration is the rising prominence of the Middle Corridor – the transcontinental route linking the Black Sea to Central Asia. Although the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) initially prioritized the more established northern route through Russia, the geopolitical landscape altered dramatically after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Sanctions, disrupted logistics, and heightened security risks weakened the reliability of the Russian pathway, prompting Beijing to reassess and diversify its transit options. The South Caucasus, geographically located along the shortest land bridge between China and Europe, naturally emerged as an attractive alternative.

Read the full article on China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Turan Reserach Center Director Joseph Epstein joins Alex Vatanka and Alan Eyre on a panel moderated by Negar Mojtahedi to discuss the Netanyahu-Trump meeting and what it means for US-Iran relations.

Watch the full interview here.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Along a short strip of the Tajik-Afghan border, there has been a lot of activity in recent months, including the most serious incidents of cross-border violence in decades. Most of this activity has involved Tajikistan’s Shamsiddin Shohin district, a sparsely inhabited area where the population ekes out a living farming and herding in the foothills of the Pamir Mountains. Why the situation changed so suddenly is not entirely clear, but it is clear that the district is now the hot spot along the Tajik-Afghan frontier.

A Dubious Post-Independence Reputation

The Shamsiddin Shohin district is in Tajikistan’s southwestern Khatlon region. The district is located near the place where Afghan territory starts to make its northern-most protrusion. The elevation across most of the district is between 1,500-2,000 meters.

The district is about 2,300 square kilometers and has a population of some 60,000. Shuroobad, population roughly 11,000, is the district capital, and the entire district was once called Shuroobad. It was renamed Shamsiddin Shohin in 2016 to honor the Tajik poet and satirist of the late 19th century, who was born in the area.

Tajikistan and Afghanistan are divided by the Pyanj River, which further downstream merges with other rivers to become the Amu Darya, known to the Greeks as the Oxus, one of Central Asia’s two great rivers.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

“Well guys, are we going, or are we going to sit here taking a piss?”

It has been many years since the culmination of the so-called Russian constitutional crisis, when the country’s president, Boris Yeltsin, sought to dissolve the parliament and then ordered the military to crush opposition led by the vice president at the time, Aleksandr Rutskoi, and the chairman of parliament, Ruslan Khasbulatov.

I was working in Central Asia when the crisis broke out in September 1993, and heard bits and pieces from Radio Mayak every now and again from the Uzbek village I was working in at the time.

I traveled regularly to Moscow for my job — heading a Central Asian sociology project for the University of Manchester and the Soros International Fund for Cultural Initiative — to hand over material from our Central Asian colleagues, pick up their salaries, and restock my own household supplies for the next period of village life.

By chance, I arrived in the Russian capital on October 1. Friends there explained the rapidly changing situation. (I was more interested in the party that some friends told me was set for the Penta Hotel on Saturday night, October 2.)

I had my first look at the Russian parliament building, known as the White House, on the way to the Penta. It was surrounded by trucks, the Soviet-era tanker trucks that had big letters on the sides showing they carried moloko (milk) or voda (water), or something. There was also barbed wire around the building. Small groups of people were milling about on both sides of the barricade.

Sunday, October 3, was shopping day for me. There were always too many people at the Irish store on the Arbat on the weekend, but there was another Irish store on the Ring Road. There was a smaller selection but I was only looking for basic products, like toilet paper.

Read the full article on Soldier of Fortune Magazine.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

When Kazakhstan announced on November 6, during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit to Washington, that it would join the Abraham Accords, the decision raised a more interesting question than the move itself: why did Astana take this step before Azerbaijan—despite Azerbaijan’s far deeper and longer-standing strategic ties with Israel?

For years, Azerbaijan had been widely viewed as the natural candidate to lead Central Asia and the Turkic world into the Accords framework. Its close cooperation with Israel in energy, defense, and intelligence, combined with shared concerns about Iran, made Baku the obvious frontrunner. Yet when the moment arrived, it was Kazakhstan—not Azerbaijan—that moved first.

The explanation lies less in bilateral relations with Israel than in how the Abraham Accords are currently being deployed.

Reactivating and expanding the Abraham Accords has become a priority of the Trump administration. While the Accords formalize normalization between Israel and Muslim states that were never at war with it—and therefore differ fundamentally from classic peace treaties—their current strategic significance extends well beyond Israel. They function as a framework for advancing American influence in regions contested by Iran, China, and Russia. From this perspective, Kazakhstan’s decision was driven not by the state of its relations with Israel, which have long been stable, but by Astana’s broader geopolitical weight and signaling value.

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute of Strategy and Security.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Azerbaijan’s accession to the Central Asia Consultative Summit is less an expansion of a diplomatic forum and more the birth of an increasingly interlinked regional space. By bringing together the strategic resources of Central Asia with the transit capabilities of the South Caucasus, this development has the potential to reshape Eurasia’s political economy. Azerbaijan’s admission as a permanent member of the Central Asia Consultative Summit represents a significant geopolitical shift, signaling the emergence of a trans-Caspian political and economic space, connecting Central Asia and the South Caucasus more closely than at any point since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

The rise of the "Cauc-Asian" region is thus a chief geopolitical development of the past decades in the heart of the Eurasian continent. The decision to welcome Baku institutionalizes a relationship that had previously evolved through bilateral and sector-specific cooperation, and it positions Azerbaijan as an integral actor in the strategic architecture of Central Asia’s future. For decades after independence, the Central Asian republics and the South Caucasus evolved as separate geopolitical theaters. Despite geographical proximity and shared infrastructure legacies, there was no formal mechanism linking the two regions at the level of heads of state.

Central Asia consolidated internally around its own integration agenda, while the South Caucasus remained fragmented by conflicts, competing transit projects, and divergent geopolitical orientations. Azerbaijan’s entry into the consultative summit effectively dissolves this long-standing separation. It transforms the format from a C5 group into a C6 regional platform that encompasses both sides of the Caspian Sea. This move reflects the changing priorities of Central Asian states. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan have become increasingly committed to diversifying their connectivity and reducing their dependency on Russian transit routes.

Read the full article on Caucasus Watch.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The South Caucasus is growing closer to South Asia. India and Pakistan exert greater influence in a region that was once considered geographically distant and unimportant economically. Recently, it was revealed that Armenia was planning to purchase fighter jets from India. Although the news was later denied, it nevertheless marks a shift in the country’s defense orientation and signals the deepening strategic entanglement between two distant but increasingly interconnected geopolitical theaters: the South Caucasus and South Asia.

Although Armenia has been expanding its defense partnership with India for several years, the decision to acquire combat aircraft would have constituted a qualitative leap, revealing both Yerevan’s frustration with its traditional security provider, such as Russia, and its search for new partners capable of supplying advanced military technology without political preconditions. At the same time, such a move would have had immediate regional implications, especially as Azerbaijan embarks on its own fighter-jet modernization path by turning to Pakistan—India’s strategic rival—and, indirectly, to China through the Sino-Pakistani JF-17 program.

This potential military procurement dynamic captures a broader geopolitical realignment. For Armenia, India has become an increasingly attractive partner, offering weaponry that is both competitively priced and politically unconstrained. The relationship has matured rapidly: over the past several years, Yerevan has purchased Indian artillery systems, anti-drone platforms, radars, and surface-to-surface missiles. Moving into the realm of fighter aviation suggests that Armenia is seeking not only to replenish its depleted arsenal after the 2020 and 2023 conflicts with Azerbaijan—when the latter regained full control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region—but also to reorient its security thinking around suppliers outside the post-Soviet sphere.

Read the full article on Caucasus Watch.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Research Fellow Hussain Ehsani joins BBC Persia to discuss the US strikes on ISIS position in Syria following the killing of two US soldiers and an interpreter. According to CENTCOM, several militants were killed in the strikes.

Watch the full interview here (Persian).

Hussain Ehsani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Azerbaijan sits in one of the world’s roughest neighborhoods, squeezed between Russia to the north and Iran to the south. 

Over the past few years, the small, secular but Muslim-majority nation has faced tensions with both Russia and Iran. Relations with Moscow cooled after Russian air defenses accidentally downed an Azerbaijani airliner last December, killing 38. Meanwhile, repeated Iranian threats—including support for the Husseiniyyun, a radical Shia proxy operating terrorist cells in the country and large-scale military exercises on the border—have kept the nation on edge.

Yet Azerbaijan is more than a country at the mercy of large neighbors. It also offers a rare strategic opening for Washington with immediate payoffs in trade, energy security, and regional deterrence.

Baku controls a key stretch of the Middle Corridor—the only land route from Europe to Asia that bypasses both Russia and Iran. It already supplies natural gas to Europe and has helped ease tensions between Jerusalem and Ankara. It has become a bridge to Central Asia, a region the United States has recently prioritized as it seeks alternatives to Chinese rare earths.

Read the full article on the National Interest.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Alisher Sultanov was relieved of his post as presidential representative on energy security on December 16, ending some ten years of dubious performance as one of Uzbekistan’s top energy officials. Under Sultanov’s watch as head of the state oil and gas company and then as a top official in Uzbekistan’s Energy Ministry, the country’s oil and gas production decreased, and Uzbekistan went from being a gas exporter to an importer.

A Career in the Gas and Oil Sector

Sultanov started working in Uzbekistan’s energy sector in the mid-1990s and gradually made his way through the ranks at the state oil and gas company Uzbekneftegaz. In 2015, Sultanov became Uzbekneftegaz’s chairman, serving in that position until 2018.

In 2017, Sultanov was appointed Deputy Prime Minister in charge of the fuel, energy, and industrial sector, and in February 2019, he was named Energy Minister. He stepped down as Energy Minister in April 2022, officially for health reasons, but by 2023 was back as presidential advisor on oil and gas, chemical, and energy matters, though that title was changed in July 2025 to the president’s representative on energy security.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

BACKGROUND: On November 6, Washington hosted a summit between the U.S. and the five Central Asian republics. The meeting was notable for several reasons. It marked the first time such a summit had been held at the White House and it followed President Trump’s recent bilateral meetings with the leaders of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.
Washington approached the summit with a pragmatic agenda. Its priorities were twofold: to secure long-term access to critical mineral resources and to strengthen the Middle Corridor as a reliable route to Central Asia that bypasses sanctioned Russian and Iranian territory.
Notably absent from the discussions were themes that had dominated earlier decades, such as the promotion of human rights, democratization, and the export of Western governance models. This marks a clear departure from the period when the C5+1 format was first introduced under President Obama in 2015. At that time, the initiative was largely designed to counter Russian and Chinese influence, rather than to promote trade and investment from the U.S.
President Trump’s regional policy is explicitly transactional. An agreement with Uzbekistan envisages approximately US$ 100 billion in investments flowing into U.S. industries over the coming years. Kazakhstan, meanwhile, has joined the Abraham Accords and concluded around US$ 17 billion in commercial agreements with the U.S., including a US$ 1 billion joint mining venture.

Read the full article on the Central Asia and Caucasus Institute.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

On 7 October, following Hamas’s large-scale terrorist assault on Israel, one of the most immediate and consequential developments stemming from Israel’s subsequent war of self-defense was the marked deterioration in Israeli-Turkish relations.

One month prior to the outbreak of hostilities, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were posing before cameras alongside their senior advisers, standing before the flags of both nations at the Turkish House in New York.[1] Yet barely two years after that photograph was taken, on 7 November, the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor’s Office issued arrest warrants against 37 senior Israeli officials involved in the conduct of the war against Hamas - including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yisrael Katz, and the Chief of General Staff Eyal Zamir.[2]

The announcement of this decision extinguished the nascent hopes that the tension between Israel and Turkey might be gradually de-escalated following the fragile Gaza ceasefire brokered through the initiative of U.S. President Donald Trump. Through such a politically motivated decision, Ankara has signaled that it has no intention of returning to normalized relations with Jerusalem despite the ceasefire. On the contrary, the Erdoğan administration has been pursuing a policy of delegitimization against Israel since the outbreak of the war, one that has long since transcended the boundaries of criticism.

Read the full article on the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Armenia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan visited Israel on November 27, 2025, engaging in a series of meetings with senior Israeli officials. Such visits are rare, as relations between the two countries have long remained mostly neutral. The current meeting can be considered historic as it indicates a significant development in the relationship between Israel and Armenia. While closer ties between Jerusalem and Yerevan are welcome, significant obstacles still need to be addressed.

Armenia has always been wary of Israel’s support for Azerbaijan, with which it maintains a strategic partnership encompassing areas ranging from economics to security. However, Israel’s ties with Azerbaijan were established immediately after Azerbaijan gained independence, and the strategic partnership with Baku was never intended to target Armenia. Additionally, Armenia remains aligned with Iran, a regime that is deeply hostile to Israel’s existence.

Israel has also voiced concern over rising antisemitism in Armenia. In recent years, there have been several acts of vandalism targeting Jewish sites, including four attacks on a synagogue in the capital, Yerevan. Antisemitic content on Armenian social media has also increased, particularly in response to Israeli arms deliveries to Azerbaijan. The Armenian lobby in the United States has attempted to pressure Congress to restrict American military aid to Israel unless Jerusalem ceases its provision of weapons to Baku.

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Hussain Ehsani joins BBC Persian to discuss the terror attack against a Hannukah celebration in Bondi Beach, Australia.

Watch the interview on BBC (Persian).

Hussain Ehsani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The dictum that foreign policy doesn’t win elections has long been a part of the conventional wisdom of American politics. Yet as the Republican Party enters an ideological civil war, with the MAGA movement splintering into competing factions, foreign policy has become a major battlefield. 

At the center of the new divide, which will determine what MAGA will stand for after Trump, is Tucker Carlson, who has positioned himself as the leader of an isolationist, grievance-driven bloc. Mixing conspiracy theories, antisemitic tropes, and sympathetic treatment of authoritarian governments hostile to the United States, Carlson has repeatedly worked to undermine Trump-aligned foreign policy goals.

The struggle is less about specific policies, however, than about who will ultimately control the movement. Trump built MAGA and remains its most powerful figure, yet by not policing his message, he has left space for Carlson to shape the narrative. Although Trump once called him “Kooky Tucker Carlson” in response to Carlson’s hysterical warnings that bombing Iran could trigger World War III, he has largely avoided confronting him directly. Carlson has been open about his intent, saying after a recent interview with white nationalist Nick Fuentes, “What happens after Trump goes? That’s what this is about.” If Trump does not draw clear boundaries, he risks allowing the movement he built to be defined by its most extreme elements.

Read the full article on the National Interest.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.

Senior Fellow Alex Grinberg joins Yaakov Lappin on the JISS Podcast, where he examines Iran’s covert influence operations in Europe and the true status of its nuclear and missile programs. Grinberg exposes a Soviet-style Iranian campaign in France, highlighting Tehran’s recruitment of agents of influence in academia, science, and government, its promotion of strategic narratives, and the use of criminal networks to target Jewish and Israeli communities. He also discusses the overlooked Iranian-Algerian cooperation in France and the organized campaign against French Jewish authors, revealing the sophisticated scope of Iran’s destabilization efforts.

Listen to the full podcast here.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

On December 12, 2025, Turkmenistan marks the 30th anniversary of a UN decision granting Turkmenistan the status of a neutral country.

Defining what “permanent neutrality” means for Turkmenistan is impossible, as it is a flexible term used to justify a range of policies, both domestic and foreign. This vague special status has not provided many benefits, but has helped Turkmenistan’s leadership isolate the country and create one of the most bizarreand repressive forms of government in the world today.

Last Item on the Day’s Agenda

On Tuesday, December 12, 1995, the UN General Assembly’s (UNGA) 90th plenary meeting reconvened at 15:20 to consider items 57 to 81 on its agenda. Item 81 was the draft resolution on “permanent neutrality of Turkmenistan.”

The UNGA president at that time, Freitas do Amaral, noted to the Assembly that the draft resolution “was adopted by the First Committee without a vote,” and asked if the Assembly wished “to do likewise.” The Assembly did, and after a few brief remarks about the next Assembly meeting on December 14, the session ended at 18:05.

That is how the UN officially granted Turkmenistan the status of neutrality.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

In October 2025, two French nationals detained in Iran were finally allowed to return home, reportedly in exchange for France’s release of an Iranian agent held on its soil. This high-profile swap highlighted the covert tug-of-war between Tehran and Paris. This struggle extends far beyond hostage diplomacy and involves secret networks of influence, espionage, and ideological infiltration. A new independent report presented to French authorities in late 2025 reveals how the Islamic Republic of Iran has been systematically working to infiltrate and destabilize France from within.

Compiled by the France 2050 think tank, led by Gilles Platret, the mayor of Chalon-sur-Saône, the 86-page study describes what one contributor calls an Iranian “mécanique du chaos”—a mechanics of chaos—orchestrated through espionage, influence peddling, and even criminal proxies. The report states that Tehran’s goals are strategic: to pressure France over Iran’s nuclear ambitions, to influence French policy toward Israel, and to “bring chaos, without waging war, into the heart of our democracies.” This article reviews the main findings of that report and other expert insights into Iran’s covert activities in France—from spy rings and academic indoctrination to unlikely alliances that combine radical Islamism with the far-left under the banner of Palestine.

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute of Strategy and Security.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Few Central Asia observers were surprised by the recent and unanimous decision to include Azerbaijan as a full-fledged member in the Consultative Format of Central Asian nations, given its longstanding role in fostering regional connectivity and energy cooperation. The forum—originally composed of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan—is a platform for cooperation among Central Asian states. Baku’s accession to the format signals both Central Asia and Azerbaijan want to be seen as part of a single region. 

Building on that expansion, the United States should now add Azerbaijan to the C5+1 format and consider inviting Israel to join the framework, creating a C6+2. Incorporating Israel would provide Washington with the expertise of a trusted partner that maintains diplomatic, economic, and security relationships across the region. Coordinated engagement would enhance the ability of the United States and Israel to shape outcomes and expand their influence—particularly as they compete with entrenched powers such as Russia and China that remain broadly opposed to U.S. involvement in the region. 

An Israeli role will also help secure U.S. strategic interests. Namely, by supporting the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route or Middle Corridor, a trade route through Central Asia and Azerbaijan to Europe bypassing both Russia and Iran as well as helping develop critical mineral processing abilities. Jerusalem could also support the region in strategic initiatives such as water management and cybersecurity.  

Read the full article on the N7 Foundation.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Not long after late 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed and Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan became independent, illegal narcotics trafficking started through the region, mainly coming from drug-producing countries in South Asia, particularly Afghanistan, and being smuggled through Central Asian territory to Russia and from there to Europe. For the most part, Central Asia was simply a transit area for narcotics trafficking but that is changing. Drug smuggling continues but now newer illegal narcotics also are being produced in Central Asia for a growing domestic market. After more than 30 years of developing counter-narcotics agencies, officials in the countries are faced with rapidly evolving situation that makes drug interdiction more difficult and distribution much easier.

The Problem

On November 13, the website of Kazakhstan’s Interior Ministry posted the results of the 10-day “Law and Order” counter-narcotics operation that had just concluded. They detained 27 people and seized some 80 kilograms of narcotics, mostly mephedrone and Alfa-PVP, so-called synthetic drugs. One of the raids was on a laboratory in the city of Karaganda, about 140 miles south of the capital Astana, that produced Alfa-PVP. Police seized two tons of precursor substances at the laboratory.

At the start of November, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyoev approved the 2025-2026 national programfor combating drug-related crimes. According to information posted on the Uzbek president’s website, there were more than 11,000 drug-related crimes and some 2.5 tons of narcotics seized in Uzbekistan since the start of 2025. In July, Uzbekistan’s chief narcologist Zarifjon Ashurov noted drug use among youth is increasing. Ashurov said there are 5,000 registered cases of minors who are drug-dependent and the youngest is 10 years old. Some of that is attributed to misuse of prescription drugs, but Tashkent Deputy Mayor Durdona Rahimova said in November 2024 there is an increase in the number of students at schools in the Uzbek capital who are using synthetic drugs.

In Kyrgyzstan on October 30, the head of the country’s counter-narcotics department Kanybek Usenov said in the first nine months of 2025, Kyrgyz law enforcement seized 4.725 tons of illegal drugs and precursors. Usenov pointed out that of narcotics confiscated, 798 kilograms was synthetic drugs, compared to 34 kilograms seized in all of 2024. Usenov added that five laboratories for producing synthetic drugs were uncovered in Kyrgyzstan in 2025, but he said use of these drugs is growing mainly because of shipments arriving from Kazakhstan and Russia.  

Read the full article on the Foreign Policy Research Institute.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

“Iran’s nuclear program has been destroyed to the level that it has zero functionality,” Maj. (ret.) Alex Grinberg, a former Israeli military intelligence officer and an expert on Iran at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, told The Media Line. “Resumption of the program requires immense resources that Iran does not have at the moment.”

Iran is in the midst of a deepening socioeconomic and energy crisis. Its economy has exhibited virtually no growth. Despite vast oil and gas reserves, decades of infrastructure neglect, underinvestment, mismanagement, and the diversion of funds to terrorist organizations around the world have caused energy production and distribution systems to break down. International sanctions against the Islamic Republic have only exacerbated the situation. Frequent blackouts and water shortages have affected not only industry but also the general public.

Read the whole interview on The Media Line.
Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Someone in northern Afghanistan near the Tajik border is targeting Chinese workers just across the river inside Tajikistan.

On November 26, three Chinese miners were killed in an attack in which assailants used a drone equipped with firearms and grenades, while on November 30, two Chinese roadworkers were shot dead.

It is difficult to say who is behind the killings or pinpoint their motive, but the violence has led to the highest-level contact between authorities of Tajikistan and Afghanistan since the Taliban returned to power in Kabul in August 2021.

Read the full article on BNE Intellinews.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Since the fall of the Assad dynasty in Syria in December 2024, Turkey’s regional influence has notably grown across the eastern Mediterranean. From Libya to Syria to northern Iraq and the South Caucasus, Ankara’s posture has become more pronounced. This development is aided by major regional shifts such as Iran’s weakening, following its direct confrontation with Israel and the United States in 2025.

Another development that facilitated Turkey’s strengthening clout is that regional countries have grown increasingly fearful of Israel’s overbearing power. The Israeli attack against leaders of Palestinian group Hamas[i] in Doha in September served as a further reminder that Arab states should seek the diversification of their partnerships away from exclusive reliance on the United States. Therefore, it was no coincidence that Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defense pact with Pakistan nearly a week after the strikes in Qatar. These shifts allow Turkey to skillfully position itself as an indispensable actor to stabilize the shaken regional balance of power.

Read the full article on Manara Magazine.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

EU-Kazakhstan relations have strengthened significantly over the past decade, accelerating after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, an analyst has told TVP World.

According to Bruce Pannier from the Caspian Policy Center, Kazakhstan has become a vital trade and energy partner for Europe, thanks to its position on the Middle Corridor—a route linking China and Europe without crossing Russia. 

While Moscow resents losing its northern route, Beijing has backed the corridor and invested heavily in Kazakhstan, giving China political leverage. Despite Astana’s efforts, some sanctioned goods still reach Russia through Kazakhstan. 

Meanwhile, Europe depends on Kazakh oil, uranium and critical minerals, with new deals focusing on local resource processing. 

Watch the interview on TVP World.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Kyrgyzstan held snap parliamentary elections on November 30 that seem not to have elicited widespread enthusiasm among the electorate.

Not long ago, Kyrgyzstan had the most vibrant political culture in Central Asia. Campaigning for parliamentary elections was a lively period that was impossible not to notice. Parties and candidates were in the news constantly in the weeks before the elections. There were campaign posters and signs, and public events with concerts organized by parties or candidates all around the country.

The rapid pace of these latest elections, in which candidates had only 20 days to campaign, might have contributed to voter confusion and apathy on election day, but the elections do seem to have come off without any major controversy.

In a country that has had three revolutions in the last 20 years, two of them directly connected to parliamentary elections, a quiet election day is a victory of sorts.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

KazMunaiGaz (KMG) says it has no concrete plans to sell any of its European assets, though pressure is building to at least sell off some of the Kazakh company’s shares in oil refineries in Romania. Reports on November 21 said KMG was looking to privatize up to 50% of its shares in its subsidiary KMG International’s (KMGI) European operations in Europe.

The reports were based on a list of recommendations from Kazakhstan’s Agency for the Protection and Development of Competition (APDC), which proposed, as part of the 2026-2027 strategy, that KMGI should have a two-stage tender to sell up to 50% of its stakes. On November 26, KMG denied making any decisions about KMGI businesses in Europe, adding that the APDC’s list of recommendations “includes assets from different sectors, but this in itself does not automatically trigger a sale.”

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, an expert on Turkey at the Moshe Dayan Center at Tel Aviv University and at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, notes that even before Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy was announced on behalf of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) for the 2023 presidential elections, the secular opposition discussed the possible candidacy of İmamoğlu or Yavaş. However, Kılıçdaroğlu’s insistence led the two to decide to stand by him, including during campaign rallies.

“Yavaş managed to defeat Erdoğan’s candidates one after another, proving that Erdoğan’s candidates—and even Erdoğan himself—are not invincible,” emphasizes Dr. Cohen Yanarocak. “From the perspective of the Turkish president, the two charismatic candidates in provinces such as Ankara and Istanbul may represent a model sample for all of Turkey.”

Read the full article on Globes Israel (Hebrew).

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) Iran expert Maj. (res.) Alexander Grinberg told JNS that Saudi escalation signals a willingness to challenge the Iranian-Houthi axis more directly: “According to these reports, the Saudis are intending a large-scale operation against the Houthis. If they do that, it will be a clear indication that they don’t care about their agreement with Iran,” he said.

Grinberg argued that the regional landscape has shifted sharply since the Trump presidency and Israel’s dismantling of Iranian proxies.

“Everyone understands that Iran is weak because it has lost all its pieces on the chessboard. It doesn’t have an axis of resistance anymore, and it lost its deterrence,” he added.

Read the full article on the Jewish News Syndicate.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

However, Maj. (res.) Alexander Grinberg, a former officer in the IDF Military Intelligence research department and an Iran expert at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, said that the reports of dual-use chemical shipments were misleading and overinterpreted the significance of the influx.

“The shipment of the dual-use materials is a hint that they are rebuilding, but there is a lack of precise information, and Iranian agents have an interest in making it seem like the significance of this sort of shipment is greater than it is in reality,” Grinberg told JNS. “There is a long way from these chemicals to full ballistic missiles; it doesn’t mean in any way that war is imminent.”

Satellite imagery shows that Iran has moved quickly to reconstruct key solid-propellant facilities destroyed in Israeli strikes. Several production halls are being rebuilt, including structures that previously housed the mixers used to convert chemical inputs into solid rocket fuel. Those mixers were among Israel’s primary targets during the 12-day “Rising Lion” operation in June, because they are essential for manufacturing high-energy propellant used in medium- and long-range missiles, including systems that could carry nuclear warheads.

However, Grinberg challenged this assessment, saying that it is wrong to put too much weight on the satellite images. “There are some photographs from missile and nuclear sites showing that there is activity, but that doesn’t definitively prove anything about the pace of missile production,” he said. “It’s not surprising to see that there is some rebuilding going on after a site is blown up, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the capacity is rebuilt.”

Read the full interview on the Jewish News Syndicate.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

On October 24, Uzbekistan and the European Union signed an Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA). The agreement is far more expansive than what governed the Brussels–Tashkent relations since bilateral cooperation was officially established in 1999 (European Council, October 24). The previous engagement framework no longer addressed today’s challenges, and both sides urgently needed an upgrade. Uzbekistan has grown economically, Central Asia has become more important, and the European Union is eager to diversify its energy dependence.

The expanding ties between Uzbekistan and the European Union are indicative of a changing approach in Brussels’s foreign policy. The European Union has become increasingly adaptable to the needs of each Central Asian country. In many ways, this mirrors how the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia, and, more recently, the United States have engaged with Central Asia. The November summit between the United States and the five Central Asian countries is a good example of this developing trend (Novaya Gazeta, November 14). To highlight the growing attention the European Union now pays to Central Asia, the EPCA follows the Central Asia–European Union summit held in April in Samarkand, during which Brussels pledged around 12 billion euros (about $13.9 billion) within its Global Gateway framework for infrastructure development in the region (European Commission, April 3; Invexi, April 4).

Read the full article on the Jamestown Foundation.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

There was something different about the November 6 summit of the US and five Central Asian countries. It was the first such event held in the White House and followed the US president’s meetings with his Uzbek and Kazakh counterparts, where big deals were signed to boost America’s manufacturing sector. 

The US had a clear pre-summit agenda. It pursued two goals: to gain access to mineral resources and to develop the Middle Corridor route to reach Central Asia by skirting Russian and Iranian territory. 

Another striking change was that the US approach made little mention of human rights, democracy promotion, and the transfer of the Western governance model into the region. This appeals to the Central Asian states, which have poor records on basic liberties but are eager to build partnerships with Washington and to pursue tighter integration with global markets. Under President Donald Trump, priority goes to economic, connectivity, and security deals. 

This has not always been the case. The first summit held within the C5+1 framework was first established under President Barack Obama in 2015 and was less about deepening economic and trade ties and more about denying Russia and China greater influence in the region. Yet it proved impossible to achieve concrete results without meaningful economic engagement, something the Trump administration is trying to change, and with some success.  

Read the full article on the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

On October 14, 2025, the Iranian judiciary sentenced two French citizens imprisoned in the country to lengthy prison terms. Cécile Kohler, a teacher, and her partner, Jacques Paris, were detained in May 2022 and initially accused of attempting to incite protests. An Iranian court has issued a preliminary ruling sentencing both French nationals to long prison terms on charges of espionage and collaboration with foreign intelligence agencies.

The judiciary-affiliated news website Mizan Online either omitted or distorted important details in its October 14 report. According to the report, the two individuals, whose names were not officially disclosed, were arrested in March 2023 and have since been convicted of multiple charges, including spying for the French intelligence agency, conspiracy against national security, and intelligence cooperation with Israel. The defendants were identified as “employees of the French intelligence service” and detained on March 9, 2023.

The report stated that the indictment was 715 pages long and resulted in seven court sessions, during which the defendants and their appointed lawyers presented their defense. Iranian officials claimed that the defendants had access to legal representation throughout the investigation and trial and were allowed to contact their families. All proceedings were conducted with a judiciary-appointed translator present, according to the report.

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The detention and release of the French couple, Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris, reveal only the tip of the iceberg regarding the Iranian intelligence war with France and other Western democracies. Tehran employs hostage detention tactics to bargain for the release of its arrested agents in Europe. These “intelligence activities” are directly linked to terrorism, as the Iranian regime has consistently attempted to assassinate Iranian dissidents abroad and target Jewish and Israeli civilians worldwide.

In October 2025, French investigative journalists Emmanuel Razavi and Jean-Marie Montali published a book in which they describe the history and current state of Iranian influence in France. The Iranian infiltration in France is a complex network that blends ideological influence with covert operations carried out by the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

In the Spotlight on Central Asia Podcast, Senior Fellow Bruce Pannier and Michael Hilliard unpack how the C5+1 summit in Washington could reshape Central Asia's security and economic architecture, cutting through the new trade deals and MoUs to gauge their real-world impact. Pannier and Hilliard assess Tokayev's trip to Moscow and what it signals, the Moscow arrest of a major Turkmen power broker, fresh twists in Kazakhstan's election season, viral claims that a foreign power has "pulled out" of the region, and worrying economic signals from Bishkek.

Listen to the full podcast here.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Campaigning for seats in Kyrgyzstan’s upcoming parliamentary elections is underway, and it is already shaping up to be a race unlike anything seen before in Kyrgyzstan. The 467 candidates competing for the 90 seats in parliament have only 20 days to make their cases to voters in their districts. Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov’s government has vowed to keep these elections clean and fair, and threatened severe punishment for those who attempt to cheat in any way.

Uneven Electoral Landscape

The country is divided into 30 voting districts, and in each district, the three candidates who receive the most votes will win seats.

The level of competition varies, depending on the district. Electoral district 11, which is Manas city (formerly Jalal-Abad), has 155,023 eligible voters. Only five candidates are running in the district, three of whom are women. According to new election rules, a woman (or a man) must win at least one of the three seats available in each district.

Name recognition is always important, and especially so in elections with many newcomers seeking seats in parliament. One of the candidates in District 11 is Shairbek Tashiyev, the brother of the current head of the State Committee for National Security (GKNB), Kamchybek Tashiyev. He is almost certain to win one of the seats.

In electoral district 19 in Kyrgyzstan’s northern Chuy Province, with 138,373 eligible voters, there are 25 candidates competing.

The two districts with the largest number of voters, district 15 in the Aksy area of western Kyrgyzstan with 160,218 voters, and district 28 in the Zhety-Oguz area of eastern Kyrgyzstan with 160,181 voters, have, respectively, 15 candidates and 17 candidates. In the districts where there are 15 or more candidates, the three winners might only receive around 10,000 votes, or even less.

The candidates are out meeting with voters, but many are relying on social networks to promote their image and spread their message. Domestic television stations, ElTR and UTRK, are airing candidate debates that “will be distributed regionally, depending on the candidates’ electoral districts.”

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Given that Kazakhstan had normalised relations with Israel decades before this month, its entry into the Abraham Accords is a “politically meaningful and strategically useful, but largely symbolic” development that will come with “targeted practical gains in specific areas such as technology, defence, and critical minerals,” explained Aigerim Turgunbaeva, a Bishkek-based journalist and research fellow at the Turan Center, in an interview with The New Arab.

Astana’s official entry into the Abraham Accords “mainly elevates the visibility of bilateral ties, provides a recognised political framework for new commercial and technological partnerships, and reduces perceived risks for US and Israeli investors operating in Kazakhstan,” she noted, while adding that the Central Asian state’s foreign policy will retain its “multi-vector” nature that avoids placing Astana in alignment with any specific geopolitical bloc.

“The move therefore broadens Kazakhstan’s diplomatic toolkit rather than transforming the nature of its ties with Israel,” stated Turgunbaeva.

Israel’s Bukharan Jewish community plays a central role in shaping Israeli-Uzbek relations. Reflecting on this community’s history, Bruce Pannier, a fellow at the Turan Research Centre and board member of the Caspian Policy Centre, noted that the Bukharan Jewish population in what is now Uzbekistan numbered around 40,000 at the time of the Soviet Union’s implosion.

“The community had been in the Bukhara area for thousands of years. Most have left in the time since Uzbekistan became independent, and there are now possibly less than 1,000 still living in the Bukhara area. Most of those who left went to the United States, but several thousand went to Israel with significant help from the Israeli government,” he noted.

“The Bukharan Jews in Israel and those still remaining in Uzbekistan continue to connect the two countries.”

Pannier believes that Kyrgyzstan would likely join after Uzbekistan. “Kyrgyz-Israeli diplomatic relations also date back to early 1992. Kyrgyzstan’s situation vis-à-vis Israel is similar to Kazakhstan’s in that there’s really nothing to lose in joining the Accords,” he told TNA.

Read the full article on the New Arab.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow and Aigerim Turgunbaeva is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Kazakhstan is widely recognised as the world's leading uranium producer and exporter and as a top-10 oil exporter. But for many of its neighbours, the fact that the country is also a leading and flourishing exporter of grain is equally, if not more, important.

However, Kazakhstan is in fact increasingly moving beyond its neighbours, finding additional markets for its grain commodities. These now include countries in North Africa, the Middle East, Europe and East Asia.

Read the full article on BNE Intellinews.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Kazakhstan is turning geography into strategy. In an interview on Eastern Express, Bruce Pannier, a board member at the think tank Caspian Policy Center, said the country is rapidly positioning itself as Eurasia’s transit hinge as shippers reroute away from Russia.

“Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine meant that you couldn’t use the so-called northern route… Now you have both China and Europe hugely interested in developing the Middle Corridor,” he said. 

That corridor—the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route —runs from China through Kazakhstan, across the Caspian to the South Caucasus and onward to Europe. Pannier argues Kazakhstan’s long, uninterrupted east-west spine gives it a structural edge.  

Read the full article on TVP World.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Russia is intensifying its attempts to destabilize Kazakhstan and Armenia, according to analysts Seth Cropsey and Joseph Epstein. In an article for The Washington Post, they describe the operations the Kremlin is conducting in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, and propose measures to defend against its aggression — currently hybrid, but possibly military in the future.

Read the full article on the Republic (Russian).

Joseph Epstein is Director of the Turan Research Center. Seth Cropsey is President of the Yorktown Institute.

Five years after the Abraham Accords reshaped Middle Eastern diplomacy, a new and unexpected player has joined the circle. On Thursday, the White House announced that Kazakhstan, a Muslim-majority nation of twenty million on the Central Asian steppe, will become the first post-Soviet state to join the pact with Israel. The move reinvigorates an initiative that had slowed in recent years—and hints at a broader US strategy linking the Middle East and Eurasia.

US President Donald Trump officially announced the news in a Truth Social post. By joining the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, Kazakhstan is signaling its commitment to the principles of the accords. But it likely won’t be the last to join. Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan are in talks to join the pact.

The move highlights Central Asia’s somewhat quiet, but unusually strong, diplomatic ties with Israel, which are likely to increase should more regional nations follow in Kazakhstan’s footsteps. While some have dismissed an expansion to Central Asia as “largely symbolic,” this interpretation overlooks deeper implications.

Extending the Abraham Accords into Central Asia marks a new phase—building a coalition of pro-US Muslim nations committed to tolerance and engagement with Israel. Such a coalition strengthens efforts to counter extremism, particularly state-sponsored ideology from Iran, and fosters cooperation among US partners across a region vital to US interests.

Read the full article on Atlantic Council's MENASource.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev will reportedly hold a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to announce Kazakhstan's intention to join, although Astana has already maintained full diplomatic ties with Israel for more than 30 years.

But Joseph Epstein, director of the Washington-based Yorktown Institute's Turan Research Center, told RFE/RL that while the move by Kazakhstan may appear symbolic, it could hold diplomatic weight moving forward.

“Astana’s decision to join the Abraham Accords marks the beginning of a new phase, transforming the accords from a Middle East peace initiative to a pro-US coalition of moderate Muslim countries devoted to tolerance and prosperity,” Epstein said.

Read the full article on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

In contrast, during Israel’s “Operation Iron Swords,” Israeli UAVs from companies such as IAI, Elbit, and Aeronautics dominated Iranian airspace — even over major cities. Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a Turkey expert at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, notes that Turkish media deliberately avoid covering Israeli drone capabilities — even though Turkey’s own UAV industry was built largely on Israeli and American models.

“Erdoğan often uses the saying, ‘The cruel landlord turns the tenant into a homeowner somewhere else.’ Meaning, since the Turks relied on Israel for drones and got ‘poor service,’ they decided to develop their own,” Dr. Yanarocak explains. “Today, when you look at Turkish coverage of Israeli strikes in Gaza or Lebanon, they avoid praising Israeli technology. But if you open the Turkish Intelligence Academy’s reports on Operation Iron Swords, you’ll see they are well aware of Israel’s advancements and detail its systems and their effectiveness.”

Read the full article on Globes (Hebrew).

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Tajikistan on October 9. Their meeting, after many months of outright hostility, was interpreted by many as a signal of rapprochement, and with some reason. 

Distrust will nevertheless persist — Azerbaijan considers itself a significant regional power better off when it is free of the Kremlin’s policy shackles. And there’s not much Russia can do about it. 

The talks centered on what Putin described as the “most sensitive issue” — the December 2024 shooting down by a Russian missile battery of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190, with the deaths of 38 people. Putin expressed condolences and, in effect, issued an apology by belatedly accepting that the cause of the crash was indeed the Russian military. 

The Russian president has argued that the investigation into the tragedy had concluded, that the incident was triggered by the presence of three Ukrainian drones over Russian territory at the time, and that the missiles did not directly hit the aircraft, but detonated roughly 10 meters (about 30ft) away. He did not mention that this is precisely the aim of many anti-aircraft missiles, and more than enough to inflict catastrophic damage. 

Read the full article on the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Joseph Epstein, director of the Yorktown Institute’s Research Center, told Radio Free Europe that Central Asia is “well-positioned” to meet American demand and give the U.S. “more leverage in the next round” of trade talks with China.

“The Central Asians look well-positioned with their large deposits and growing investment in the Middle Corridor,” Epstein said in a statement. “That makes the United States even more of a counterweight as the Central Asians look to preserve their multi-vector foreign policies.”

Read the full article on the Washington Examiner.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.

"The Central Asians look well-positioned with their large deposits and growing investment in the Middle Corridor," Joseph Epstein, director of the Washington-based Yorktown Institute's Turan Research Center, told RFE/RL, referring to the emerging 6,500-kilometer-long trade routethat connects China to Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus by bypassing Russia.

"Both Beijing and Washington are set to use the pause to create an advantage from their side to have more leverage in the next round of trade tensions," Epstein said. "That makes the United States even more of a counterweight as the Central Asians look to preserve their multi-vector foreign policies."

Read the full article on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Maj. (res.) Alex Grinberg joined ILTV to discuss the current state of Iran-backed militias. In the interview, Grinberg discussed the threat posed to Israel by both Iran and its proxies as well as relations and the potential of future confrontations. The interview also touched on the situation inside Iran and why Iranians are not rising up against the regime.

Watch the full interview on ILTV.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak in an interview with Haber 7 explains Israeli perceptions of Turkish ambitions in Gaza. According to Yanarocak, Israelis would see a possible Turkish presence in Gaza not as a peacekeeping mission, but as an advanced military base against Israel.

Read the full interview on Haber 7 (Turkish).

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow for the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins i24 News for a special in-depth report on Turkish-Israeli relations. In the interview, Yanarocak breaks down current ties between Israel and Turkey and the distinct influence President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plays.

Watch the full interview on i24 News (Hebrew).

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak breaks down the reasons for why Turkey is holding a conference on Gaza, drawing parallels with the case of Cyprus. According to Yanarocak, if Israel does not want to see a more active Turkey in the Israel-Palestine conflict, then Jerusalem should stop Turkish penetration in Gaza.

Watch the whole interview on i24 News.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

What does President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey really want? From its deepening involvement in Syria to its growing alignment with Pakistan, Iran, and China, Ankara’s ambitions are reshaping regional and global geopolitics.
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak explains on The Nationalist View with Arun Anand.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Bruce Pannier co-hosts the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast with Michael Hilliard. In this episode, Pannier and Hilliard discuss the upcoming C5+1 summit in Washington, clashes between the Taliban and Tajik forces, a crackdown on independent media in Kyrgyzstan, and the foiling of a terror plot in Almaty. Both are joined by Efgan Nifti of the Caspian Policy Center to discuss the growing relationship between Azerbaijan and Central Asia.

Listen to the full podcast here.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a Turkey expert at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, explained that Turkey’s pursuit of a Gaza role is tied to its wider regional strategy. Yanarocak noted that Turkey’s first goal would be the preservation of Hamas. “Turkey is doing its best to ensure Hamas’s survival,” he explained. 

Yanarocak further noted that, in addition to practical considerations surrounding Hamas, Turkey also sought to elevate its status while weakening Israel diplomatically. 

“Turkey would like to gain status. For the first time in a long time, Ankara was recognized as a critical regional actor,” he explained. “Turkey wishes to position itself as a superpower backing the Palestinians in a mirror image of the U.S.’s backing of Israel. By doing this, they are elevating themselves to the level of the United States and degrading Israel to the level of Hamas.”

Furthermore, Yanarocak warned that Erdogan was interested in aggressive expansionism and that the Turks were likely to perceive a foothold in Gaza as a forward operating base against Israel, rather than as a peacekeeping operation. 

Yanarocak brought the example of Turkey’s occupation of Northern Cyprus as a precedent for how Turkey was likely to view Gaza. “Turkey’s role as a guarantor in Cyprus later led to its military intervention in the north of the island,” Yanarocak said. “Turkey is definitely looking at Gaza similarly.”

Erdogan has already described Turkey’s military aspirations in relation to Israel. “Just like we entered Karabakh [Azerbaijan], just like we entered Libya, we might do something similar to Israel,” Erdogan said in a speech in July 2024. 

Yanarocak pointed out that Turkish forces in Gaza would put Israel on a fast track to military conflict with Turkey. “Turkey is trying to acquire a diplomatic status that will allow it to intervene in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict more directly in favor of the Palestinians. And in some extreme cases, this can definitely escalate to military conflict,” he concluded.

Read the full interview on the Jewish News Syndicate.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.me

But the biggest trigger for Iran, pun not necessarily intended, is the news that Azerbaijan has emerged as a leading candidate to join the U.S.-backed international mission to stabilize Gaza, with proposed roles ranging from peacekeeping to reconstruction support. Its involvement is still being negotiated with Washington and other partners.

An Azeri role in Gaza “would strengthen Israel through its long-standing partnership and shared strategic interests with regard to Iran,” Joseph Epstein, an expert on Iran’s relations with the Caucasus and Central Asia and director of the Turan Research Center, told the Jerusalem Post.

Israel and Azerbaijan share a common threat in Iran and their cooperation goes back 30 years, Epstein added in a call with me Tuesday. Azerbaijan supplies most of Israel’s oil.“But the cooperation goes much farther,” he added. “Azerbaijan has long acted as Israel’s advocate in the Muslim world. Israel for its part has lobbied for Azerbaijani interests in Washington.”

Read the whole analysis on the Middle East Broadcasting Networks' Iran Briefing.

Foreign reports suggest Azerbaijan may join a multinational stabilization force in Gaza. Analysts argue that the Muslim-majority nation is a credible, widely accepted partner whose military and economic experience could serve Israel’s interests.

Following the end of the Israel-Hamas War, international discussions have gained momentum around forming a stabilization force to restore order and rebuild infrastructure. Israel is seeking partners for postwar security, and Azerbaijan’s name has repeatedly surfaced as one of the leading candidates.

According to foreign sources, Baku is being considered alongside other Muslim-majority countries. Experts believe its participation could bring Israel strategic, diplomatic, and economic benefits. Joseph Epstein, director of the Turan Research Center in Washington, said Azerbaijan’s inclusion “would strengthen Israel through its long-standing partnership and shared strategic interests with regard to Iran.”

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Post.

Joseph Epstein is Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

According to foreign reports, Baku is being considered for participation alongside other Muslim countries. Experts estimate that Azerbaijan’s involvement would give Israel security, diplomatic, and economic advantages. Joseph Epstein, director of the Turan Research Center, notes that including Azerbaijan in the force could benefit Israel thanks to the close relations and shared interests the two countries have regarding Iran. Prof. Ze’ev Hanin from the Begin–Sadat Center adds that the partnership between the countries has remained stable even in tense times, and that their security and technological cooperation has only deepened.

Read the full article on Maariv (Hebrew).

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.

Central Asian states continue to send Tehran the same message they voiced in the 1990s: They want nothing to do with the Islamic Republic’s political model. In other words, from a political standpoint, they view Iran as anything but a partner of choice. However, Central Asian states still desire to work with Iran as a potential transit country for shipping goods between East and West. In this respect, these former Soviet republics are likely closer to Tehran today than at any previous point, according to Bruce Pannier, a Turan Research Center fellow and board member of the Caspian Policy Center.

Ultimately, while Central Asian republics value Iran as a trade corridor and seek to have problem-free relationships with Tehran, these ex-Soviet states do not want the conflicts between the Islamic Republic and the American-Israeli alliance to play out on their soil. 

Central Asian states “don’t want to have anything to do with Iran’s political take on the world, or side with them in any of the disputes that Iran has with other countries in the world,” Pannier told this author. 

“They don’t want to cancel anybody out. They don’t want to cancel Iran out either. But they’re certainly not going to get closer to Iran knowing that it might in some way inhibit their relationship with other partners, including Western partners who actually have much more money to offer Central Asia than Iran ever will have, so that’s part of the figuring in [Central Asian states’] relations with Iran,” he added.

At the same time, these countries are close to Russia, whose relationship with Iran underpins a role for Tehran in Central Asia. Nonetheless, with Moscow distracted by the Ukraine conflict and challenged by EU and NATO countries in Central Asia, Russia’s influence in this former Soviet space is not as strong as it was years ago. Furthermore, while Iran is not a major player in Central Asia’s security architecture, one exception, noted Pannier, relates to the struggle against Islamic State Khorasan Province in Afghanistan—a group that has its eyes set on Central Asia...

Describing Kyrgyzstan’s relationship with Israel as “formal but limited,” Aigerim Turgunbaeva, a Bishkek-based journalist, told this author the Central Asian country strikes a “diplomatic balance, engaging both Israel and Iran while refraining from taking sides.” As she put it, Bishkek’s approach toward Iran and Israel is “guided by pragmatism and the desire to preserve constructive relations with all partners.”

Read the full article on The National Interest.

Bruce Pannier and Aigerim Turgunbaeva are research fellows at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak discusses with i24 News the election of the pro-EU Ersin Tatar and what it means for the future of the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, relations with Turkey, and potential reunification.

Watch the full interview here.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Bruce Pannier co-hosts the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast with Michael Hilliard. This episode, Pannier and Hilliard discuss snap elections and reinstating of the death penalty in Kyrgyzstan, major electoral reforms in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan's latest gas ambitions, and more. Both are joined by guest Peter Frankopan - Professor of Global History at Worcester College and author of the Silk Road.

Listen to the full podcast here.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

According to Joseph Epstein, a political analyst on Middle Eastern affairs who writes for Newsweek and Foreign Policy, “the Sharm el-Sheikh Agreement does not guarantee peace or stability.” He argues that “the core of the crisis remains within the Palestinian side, where there is still no genuine leadership capable of achieving lasting peace.”

Speaking to us, Epstein noted that one of the most remarkable developments in recent days — both during the negotiations over Gaza and the Sharm el-Sheikh summit — was “President Trump’s ability to bring together every major regional country except Iran around a rational plan for the Palestinian issue.” This, he said, “is unprecedented,” adding that the decline in regional support for groups such as Hamas could open the door to meaningful change and to the emergence of leaders capable of reaching real peace agreements.

Read the full article on the Independent (Arabic).

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins a panel on Kaan 11 to debate the concept of "total victory" in the war in Gaza.

Watch the full interview in Hebrew here.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins i24 News to discuss Turkey's reaction to the Gaza ceasefire, the Erdogan-Trump relationship, and Turkey's role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Watch the full interview here.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

In an interview with TVP World, Bruce Pannier of the Caspian Policy Center said Russia “has not many friends in the world these days, and so they’ve got to do what they can to keep such friends as they have.”  

He called the summit “one of the most lackluster” in years, noting that “Russia is slowly losing its influence in the region and grasping at straws.”  

Pannier added that Moscow’s economic promises now pale beside Chinese and European offers, and warned that Central Asian states are “expanding their security relationship with Turkey” as Russia’s capacity to project power and invest diminishes. 

Read the full interview at TVP World.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The recently announced ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has reshaped the dynamics of the Middle East conflict. Under the deal, Hamas has agreed to release all living hostages in a single exchange – an unprecedented move. The agreement comes amid shifting geopolitical calculations involving the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

To better understand the implications of the ceasefire, Israel’s priorities, and potential regional shifts, News.Az analytical portal spoke with Alexander Grinberg, who analysed the deal, the actors involved, the prospects for future talks, and the possible consequences of violations.

Mr Grinberg is a major (reserve) in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Military Intelligence Research Department. He holds degrees in Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, and Arabic Language and Literature from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and is a doctoral student in Iranian history at Tel Aviv University.

Read the full interview on News.az.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joined i24 to discuss how the Trump administration was able to convince Turkey to help push for his peace proposal in Gaza.
Watch the full interview on i24 News.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Many in Central Asia welcomed Turkey as a potential “big brother” following the Soviet implosion, Bruce Pannier, a Turan Research Center fellow and board member of the Washington-based Caspian Policy Center, told Amwaj.media. As a NATO member straddling Europe and Asia, Turkey’s identity was appealing to the fledgling Central Asian states. However, domestic economic challenges during the 1990s limited Turkey’s ability to meet regional expectations.

In contrast, Iran aligns with China and Russia in seeking to limit western influence in Central Asia. Tehran sees NATO member Turkey’s growing presence as a proxy for American power, stoking fears of geopolitical encroachment. The Donald Trump administration’s quest to draw Central Asian countries into the Abraham Accords have exacerbated such anxieties.

Ankara wants Central Asian states to be less dependent on Russia and China and more deeply tied to Turkey and Azerbaijan. “They want them to be independent actors insomuch as it strengthens their sovereignty and territorial integrity, so that they can work more effectively with the Turkish government in promoting Turkey’s interests in that region,” said Pannier.

Read the full article on Amwaj Media.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

‘Azerbaijan has been involved in the Middle East for some time’, Joseph Epstein, head of the Turan Research Centre, told OC Media.

From Epstein’s view, Azerbaijan’s interest in the Middle East has grown substantially since 2020, saying that ‘Baku has increased cooperation with the Gulf and has been particularly active in Syria’.

Speaking of Azerbaijan’s regional approach, Epstein argued that while ‘the motivations differ by country, there is a clear overall trend: Baku is positioning itself as a trusted regional mediator’.

‘The resolution of the [Nagorno-Karabakh] conflict has freed political and diplomatic bandwidth for Baku’, Epstein said.

‘Azerbaijan is now seeking to shift from a singular focus on territorial recovery to a broader foreign-policy agenda’.

Read the full article on OC Media.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation's Kan 11 to discuss Turkey's goals ahead of meetings at the United Nations and White House.

Watch the full interview in Hebrew here.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an adjunct fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins i24 news to discuss recent protests in Turkey over the judicial crackdown on the opposition CHP party.

Watch the full interview here.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an adjunct fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Turan Center Director Joseph Epstein joined Arun Anand, host of the Nationalist View podcast for a discussion on the Israeli attack on Doha, the focus of the Turan Research Center, Iran's reaction to Operation Rising Lion, exposed cracks in Iran’s regional military and intelligence apparatus, the future of the Iranian nuclear program and more.

Watch on Youtube here.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins Haviv Rettig Gur on the Ask Haviv Anything podcast to discuss the historic role of Jews during the Ottoman Empire.

Listen to the full podcast here.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an adjunct fellow at the Turan Research Center.