Turan Research Center

Five years after the Abraham Accords reshaped Middle Eastern diplomacy, a new and unexpected player has joined the circle. On Thursday, the White House announced that Kazakhstan, a Muslim-majority nation of twenty million on the Central Asian steppe, will become the first post-Soviet state to join the pact with Israel. The move reinvigorates an initiative that had slowed in recent years—and hints at a broader US strategy linking the Middle East and Eurasia.

US President Donald Trump officially announced the news in a Truth Social post. By joining the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, Kazakhstan is signaling its commitment to the principles of the accords. But it likely won’t be the last to join. Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan are in talks to join the pact.

The move highlights Central Asia’s somewhat quiet, but unusually strong, diplomatic ties with Israel, which are likely to increase should more regional nations follow in Kazakhstan’s footsteps. While some have dismissed an expansion to Central Asia as “largely symbolic,” this interpretation overlooks deeper implications.

Extending the Abraham Accords into Central Asia marks a new phase—building a coalition of pro-US Muslim nations committed to tolerance and engagement with Israel. Such a coalition strengthens efforts to counter extremism, particularly state-sponsored ideology from Iran, and fosters cooperation among US partners across a region vital to US interests.

Read the full article on Atlantic Council's MENASource.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Kazakh President Qasym-Zhomart Toqaev will reportedly hold a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to announce Kazakhstan's intention to join, although Astana has already maintained full diplomatic ties with Israel for more than 30 years.

But Joseph Epstein, director of the Washington-based Yorktown Institute's Turan Research Center, told RFE/RL that while the move by Kazakhstan may appear symbolic, it could hold diplomatic weight moving forward.

“Astana’s decision to join the Abraham Accords marks the beginning of a new phase, transforming the accords from a Middle East peace initiative to a pro-US coalition of moderate Muslim countries devoted to tolerance and prosperity,” Epstein said.

Read the full article on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in Tajikistan on October 9. Their meeting, after many months of outright hostility, was interpreted by many as a signal of rapprochement, and with some reason. 

Distrust will nevertheless persist — Azerbaijan considers itself a significant regional power better off when it is free of the Kremlin’s policy shackles. And there’s not much Russia can do about it. 

The talks centered on what Putin described as the “most sensitive issue” — the December 2024 shooting down by a Russian missile battery of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190, with the deaths of 38 people. Putin expressed condolences and, in effect, issued an apology by belatedly accepting that the cause of the crash was indeed the Russian military. 

The Russian president has argued that the investigation into the tragedy had concluded, that the incident was triggered by the presence of three Ukrainian drones over Russian territory at the time, and that the missiles did not directly hit the aircraft, but detonated roughly 10 meters (about 30ft) away. He did not mention that this is precisely the aim of many anti-aircraft missiles, and more than enough to inflict catastrophic damage. 

Read the full article on the Center for European Policy Analysis.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

"The Central Asians look well-positioned with their large deposits and growing investment in the Middle Corridor," Joseph Epstein, director of the Washington-based Yorktown Institute's Turan Research Center, told RFE/RL, referring to the emerging 6,500-kilometer-long trade routethat connects China to Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus by bypassing Russia.

"Both Beijing and Washington are set to use the pause to create an advantage from their side to have more leverage in the next round of trade tensions," Epstein said. "That makes the United States even more of a counterweight as the Central Asians look to preserve their multi-vector foreign policies."

Read the full article on Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

BACKGROUND: Over the past two months, Azerbaijan’s relations with both Russia and the U.S. have undergone significant changes, reflecting Baku’s continued commitment to maintaining balance in its foreign policy.
On October 9, Vladimir Putin met with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Dushanbe, Tajikistan. During the meeting, Putin addressed what he called the “most sensitive issue,” the December 2024 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 jet, caused by a Russian air defense missile. He expressed his condolences and effectively issued an apology. Putin stated that the investigation into the crash had concluded and that the causes of the tragedy had been identified. He attributed the incident to three Ukrainian drones allegedly flying over Russian territory at the time and mentioned technical malfunctions in Russia’s air defense system, which launched two missiles that did not directly strike the plane but exploded about ten meters away.
Between the downing of the Azerbaijani airliner and the meeting in Dushanbe, relations grew even more strained following the arrest of members of the Azerbaijani diaspora in Yekaterinburg in June 2025. Russian security forces detained a group of Azerbaijani nationals in connection with murders committed in the early 2000s, resulting in the deaths of two suspects during the operation. In response, Azerbaijan took retaliatory measures, arresting eight Russian citizens on charges of drug trafficking and cybercrime. The Russian House in Baku was subsequently closed, all Russia-related cultural events were cancelled, and Azerbaijani authorities detained both the director and the editor-in-chief of Sputnik Azerbaijan.

Read the full article on the Caucasus and Central Asia Institute.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Maj. (res.) Alex Grinberg joined ILTV to discuss the current state of Iran-backed militias. In the interview, Grinberg discussed the threat posed to Israel by both Iran and its proxies as well as relations and the potential of future confrontations. The interview also touched on the situation inside Iran and why Iranians are not rising up against the regime.

Watch the full interview on ILTV.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Kyrgyzstan is conducting snap parliamentary elections on November 30. The deadline for would-be candidates to hand in their forms was October 30.

Nearly 600 prospective contenders have submitted registration forms to run for the 90 seats in parliament. The Central Election Commission (CEC) now has until November to process candidates’ applications to ensure they meet all the requirements to participate in the upcoming poll. Those who qualify will then have 18 days to convince voters in their districts to cast their ballots for them.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Russian warplanes buzzing into NATO and European Union airspace — prompting the top diplomat in Brussels to accuse Moscow of “gambling with war” — have reignited fears of escalation beyond Ukraine. Yet while attention is fixed on the Baltic, Moscow has waged an information war in its backyard: Central Asia and the South Caucasus.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Finland raced into NATO; Moldova braced for hybrid attacks; Poland fortified its eastern flank. This was all for good reason, but seizing and holding territory is far more costly than Kremlin planners seemed to assume. Unable to replicate Ukraine-style invasions elsewhere, at least while engaged in a full-scale war, Russia is falling back on the tools it knows best — covert influence campaigns, disinformation, destabilization and military and intelligence probing.

Moldova remains Moscow’s prime laboratory, where, according to President Maia Sandu, hundreds of millions of euros have been spent on political meddling. Russia has also interfered in elections in both the Czech Republic and Romania. Now, similar warning signs are flashing farther east — in Kazakhstan and Armenia.

Read the full article on the Washington Post.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute. Seth Cropsey is President of the Yorktown Institute.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak in an interview with Haber 7 explains Israeli perceptions of Turkish ambitions in Gaza. According to Yanarocak, Israelis would see a possible Turkish presence in Gaza not as a peacekeeping mission, but as an advanced military base against Israel.

Read the full interview on Haber 7 (Turkish).

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow for the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins i24 News for a special in-depth report on Turkish-Israeli relations. In the interview, Yanarocak breaks down current ties between Israel and Turkey and the distinct influence President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plays.

Watch the full interview on i24 News (Hebrew).

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak breaks down the reasons for why Turkey is holding a conference on Gaza, drawing parallels with the case of Cyprus. According to Yanarocak, if Israel does not want to see a more active Turkey in the Israel-Palestine conflict, then Jerusalem should stop Turkish penetration in Gaza.

Watch the whole interview on i24 News.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

What does President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Turkey really want? From its deepening involvement in Syria to its growing alignment with Pakistan, Iran, and China, Ankara’s ambitions are reshaping regional and global geopolitics.
Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak explains on The Nationalist View with Arun Anand.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Bruce Pannier co-hosts the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast with Michael Hilliard. In this episode, Pannier and Hilliard discuss the upcoming C5+1 summit in Washington, clashes between the Taliban and Tajik forces, a crackdown on independent media in Kyrgyzstan, and the foiling of a terror plot in Almaty. Both are joined by Efgan Nifti of the Caspian Policy Center to discuss the growing relationship between Azerbaijan and Central Asia.

Listen to the full podcast here.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

For millennia, whoever controlled the Silk Road controlled the wealth and influence of Central Asia. Alexander the Great, Genghis Khan, and Tamerlane were among the great figures who left an indelible mark on the region. Today, the Silk Road’s legacy presents a different kind of opportunity—one of diplomacy. President Donald Trump can become the first United States president to visit Central Asia, demonstrating that America is prepared to play a significant role in the region for the first time since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Once overlooked, Central Asia is now commanding attention. Its vast mineral wealth and strategic location make it a critical arena for US interests. As leaders from Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan gather in Washington, DC, for the C5+1 summit, a presidential visit to the region would signal that the United States is committed to being a central player in its economic and geopolitical future.

Read the full article on The National Interest.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak, a Turkey expert at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, explained that Turkey’s pursuit of a Gaza role is tied to its wider regional strategy. Yanarocak noted that Turkey’s first goal would be the preservation of Hamas. “Turkey is doing its best to ensure Hamas’s survival,” he explained. 

Yanarocak further noted that, in addition to practical considerations surrounding Hamas, Turkey also sought to elevate its status while weakening Israel diplomatically. 

“Turkey would like to gain status. For the first time in a long time, Ankara was recognized as a critical regional actor,” he explained. “Turkey wishes to position itself as a superpower backing the Palestinians in a mirror image of the U.S.’s backing of Israel. By doing this, they are elevating themselves to the level of the United States and degrading Israel to the level of Hamas.”

Furthermore, Yanarocak warned that Erdogan was interested in aggressive expansionism and that the Turks were likely to perceive a foothold in Gaza as a forward operating base against Israel, rather than as a peacekeeping operation. 

Yanarocak brought the example of Turkey’s occupation of Northern Cyprus as a precedent for how Turkey was likely to view Gaza. “Turkey’s role as a guarantor in Cyprus later led to its military intervention in the north of the island,” Yanarocak said. “Turkey is definitely looking at Gaza similarly.”

Erdogan has already described Turkey’s military aspirations in relation to Israel. “Just like we entered Karabakh [Azerbaijan], just like we entered Libya, we might do something similar to Israel,” Erdogan said in a speech in July 2024. 

Yanarocak pointed out that Turkish forces in Gaza would put Israel on a fast track to military conflict with Turkey. “Turkey is trying to acquire a diplomatic status that will allow it to intervene in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict more directly in favor of the Palestinians. And in some extreme cases, this can definitely escalate to military conflict,” he concluded.

Read the full interview on the Jewish News Syndicate.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.me

But the biggest trigger for Iran, pun not necessarily intended, is the news that Azerbaijan has emerged as a leading candidate to join the U.S.-backed international mission to stabilize Gaza, with proposed roles ranging from peacekeeping to reconstruction support. Its involvement is still being negotiated with Washington and other partners.

An Azeri role in Gaza “would strengthen Israel through its long-standing partnership and shared strategic interests with regard to Iran,” Joseph Epstein, an expert on Iran’s relations with the Caucasus and Central Asia and director of the Turan Research Center, told the Jerusalem Post.

Israel and Azerbaijan share a common threat in Iran and their cooperation goes back 30 years, Epstein added in a call with me Tuesday. Azerbaijan supplies most of Israel’s oil.“But the cooperation goes much farther,” he added. “Azerbaijan has long acted as Israel’s advocate in the Muslim world. Israel for its part has lobbied for Azerbaijani interests in Washington.”

Read the whole analysis on the Middle East Broadcasting Networks' Iran Briefing.

As Moscow reorients its commercial and political ties away from the West toward the Global South, its relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have grown significantly.

Over the past few months, Russia has expanded its engagement with the oil- and gas-rich Arab nations of the GCC.

This trend demonstrates the resilience of Russia’s influence across the Middle East, especially in the face of Moscow losing its major ally, the Assad dynasty in Syria, following the fall of Baath regime in December 2024.
Then there’s the weakening of Iran, exacerbated by its confrontations with Israel and the United States, which has further complicated Moscow’s regional position.

Russia’s closer ties with the GCC are evident in its deepening relations with Oman. In April, the two countries signed an agreement to establish a visa-free programme.

The meeting in Moscow also marked the first-ever talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Sultan of Oman, Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, a historic milestone in the bilateral relations between the two countries.

Read the full article on TRT World.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Depending on one’s financial means, when flying there is a choice of economy, business or first-class. But for three people in Turkmenistan, there is the ultra-luxurious “Berdi-class”.

Turkmenistan is a country rich in natural gas, but with painfully high unemployment and a climbing poverty rate. Recent revelations of the special fleet of planes available to the Chairman of Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) and self-styled "Leader of the Nation" Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, his son, President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, and his eldest daughter, Oguljahan Atabayeva, again underscore the great disparity between Turkmenistan’s people and the ruling family.

Read the full article on BNE Intellinews.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Peaceful coexistence is turning out to be complicated for Tajikistan and the Taliban government in Afghanistan.

The Tajik government has viewed the Taliban as a threat since the militant group appeared in Afghanistan in the mid-1990s. But now that modest efforts are underway to establish some sort of amicable ties, there has been an uptick of violence directly involving the two sides along the Tajik-Afghan border.

Let’s Keep This Between Us

Tajikistan is the lone government in Central Asia that remained hostile to the Taliban after the latter returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. In the weeks that followed, the Taliban again exerted control over Afghanistan, and the Tajik government and the Taliban sent reinforcements to their common border. Russia and Pakistan had to intervene to ease tensions.

The other Central Asian states, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, have all established a business relationship with the Taliban government since the Taliban again seized control, but Tajikistan has remained aloof. Which is why the visit of Muhammad Yusuf Vafo, the governor of Afghanistan’s northern province of Balkh, to the Tajik capital Dushanbe on October 23 came as such a surprise.

The Tajik government did not say anything about Vafo’s trip. The independent Tajik news agency Asia-Plus cited Afghan media as reporting on the visit, during which Vafo met with the head of Tajikistan’s National Security Committee (GKNB), Saimumin Yatimov. Vafo and Yatimov reportedly discussed ways to improve ties in a variety of spheres and pledged not to let any “hostile elements” use their territory to plot or carry out attacks on the country.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The U.N.-patrolled demilitarized zone separating Cyprus from the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) is unlike any other buffer zone in the world. Unlike the heavily fortified strip dividing the Koreas or the few small villages in the no-man’s-land between Israel and Syria, Cyprus’s “Green Line” hosts several thousand inhabitants, bustling tavernas, a four-star hotels,and even a university.

Until 1960, Cyprus was a British colony. Like so many of Britain’s multiethnic territories—from India to Nigeria to the Mandate of Palestine—London employed a divide-and-rule strategy that caused or deepened intercommunal rifts. After independence, tensions between the island’s Greek and Turkish communities flared into sporadic violence. But what ultimately cemented Cyprus’s partition was a 1974 Greek-backed coup that overthrew President Makarios III and installed a hardline nationalist, Nikos Sampson, who sought union with Greece. Within days, Turkey invaded, leading to the current borders.

The invasion reshaped the island’s map. Once a mosaic of mixed villages, Cyprus became split with a Greek south and a Turkish north, separated by the 180-kilometer Green Line. In 1983, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus declared independence—a move recognized only by Ankara.

Read the full article on Newsweek.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Ankara plans to attract funds for the Eastern Türkiye Railway Infrastructure Development Project (ETMIC), which would renovate and electrify the Divrigi–Kars–Georgian border railway line. This was outlined in a document called “Request for Participation in Early Market Engagement for Procurement of: Eastern Türkiye Middle Corridor Railway Development Project (ETMIC) and Istanbul North Rail Crossing Project (INRAIL),” published by the Turkish Government and World Bank on September 25 (Government of Türkiye, September 25). The estimated cost of the ETMIC, including value-added tax (VAT), is $1.615 billion (BPN, October 10). The ETMIC would also construct bridges, tunnels, culverts, and retaining walls, and expand stations. The modern traffic management system includes substations, 154-kilovolt transmission lines, signaling and telecommunications equipment, a centralized traffic control system (CTC), and a 320-kilometer-long (199-mile-long) distributed acoustic monitoring system (DAS). The project will contribute to increased rail freight traffic, more active domestic passenger train traffic, and the economic development of the eastern parts of Türkiye (Report.az, October 4). Türkiye aims to position itself as a leading architect of connectivity in the region by implementing new regional projects.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced plans to build a new railway to the border with Georgia on January 5. The Samsun–Trabzon–Sarpi high-speed train line will provide rail transportation between the Turkish capital of Ankara, the Black Sea region, and Georgia (Republic of Türkiye Directorate of Communications; 1tv.ge, January 5). The new railway will connect the Turkish cities of Ordu, Giresun, Trabzon, Rize, and Artvin via a line starting in Samsun. The project is part of the Ankara–Kırıkkale–Çorum–Samsun high-speed line, which will facilitate traffic from the heart of the Anatolian peninsula to the Black Sea (Railmarket, June 19). 

Read the full article on the Jamestown Foundation.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The political survival of Armenian prime minister Nikol Pashinyan has been nothing short of remarkable. Since rising to power during Armenia’s 2018 Velvet Revolution, the embattled prime minister has withstood the fallout from the 2020 Karabakh war, open hostility from the Kremlin-backed Armenian Apostolic Church, and alleged coup attempts. His pursuit of peace with Azerbaijan and closer ties with the West has earned him powerful enemies—from the Russian government to diaspora organizations to Armenia’s former leaders.

With a final peace deal on the horizon and parliamentary elections looming next year, the stakes could not be higher. If Pashinyan holds on, he may guide Armenia into a long-sought era of peace. If he falls, the country risks sliding back into Moscow’s orbit, as its neighbor Georgia has, and could reignite conflict in the South Caucasus.

At the August 8 Washington Peace Summit, US president Donald Trump praised Pashinyan’s courage. After 30 years of bitter conflict over Karabakh, pursuing peace with Azerbaijan—especially after Baku’s battlefield victory—was politically difficult. If Washington wants to secure that peace, it must also secure Pashinyan’s political survival. Despite remaining Armenia’s most popular politician, he now polls at just 17 percent,reflecting widespread disillusionment and apathy.

Read the full article on the National Interest.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Washington must urgently diversify its rare earth supply chains. China’s new export restrictions will essentially choke off all supply to the U.S. when they are implemented next month. That will leave a massive hole in U.S. supply—70% of which is currently sourced from China.

Ironically, one of the most promising opportunities for supply diversification lies in China’s own backyard: Central Asia.

Few Americans could find Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan on a map. Yet these countries have quietly shaped the modern world for centuries. Kazakhstan was the site of the first space launch. Uzbekistan’s medieval astronomer Ulugh Beg built the most advanced observatory of his time, charting the stars with uncanny precision long before Galileo. It is fitting, then, that this region now sits at the frontier of another scientific and technological revolution: the race for rare earth elements.

Read the full article on Barron's.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

The idea for the 1,800-kilometer Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline project has been around for 30 years. There has not been much progress in building the pipeline during those decades.

The chances of seeing TAPI realized seem far away at the moment, considering Pakistan and India were involved in fighting in May of this year, and in October, there were battles along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.

However, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan are still interested in TAPI, and top officials from those two countries just met along the border to inaugurate a new section of the pipeline, and it looks like, for now, these two countries are enough.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Foreign reports suggest Azerbaijan may join a multinational stabilization force in Gaza. Analysts argue that the Muslim-majority nation is a credible, widely accepted partner whose military and economic experience could serve Israel’s interests.

Following the end of the Israel-Hamas War, international discussions have gained momentum around forming a stabilization force to restore order and rebuild infrastructure. Israel is seeking partners for postwar security, and Azerbaijan’s name has repeatedly surfaced as one of the leading candidates.

According to foreign sources, Baku is being considered alongside other Muslim-majority countries. Experts believe its participation could bring Israel strategic, diplomatic, and economic benefits. Joseph Epstein, director of the Turan Research Center in Washington, said Azerbaijan’s inclusion “would strengthen Israel through its long-standing partnership and shared strategic interests with regard to Iran.”

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Post.

Joseph Epstein is Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Central Asian states continue to send Tehran the same message they voiced in the 1990s: They want nothing to do with the Islamic Republic’s political model. In other words, from a political standpoint, they view Iran as anything but a partner of choice. However, Central Asian states still desire to work with Iran as a potential transit country for shipping goods between East and West. In this respect, these former Soviet republics are likely closer to Tehran today than at any previous point, according to Bruce Pannier, a Turan Research Center fellow and board member of the Caspian Policy Center.

Ultimately, while Central Asian republics value Iran as a trade corridor and seek to have problem-free relationships with Tehran, these ex-Soviet states do not want the conflicts between the Islamic Republic and the American-Israeli alliance to play out on their soil. 

Central Asian states “don’t want to have anything to do with Iran’s political take on the world, or side with them in any of the disputes that Iran has with other countries in the world,” Pannier told this author. 

“They don’t want to cancel anybody out. They don’t want to cancel Iran out either. But they’re certainly not going to get closer to Iran knowing that it might in some way inhibit their relationship with other partners, including Western partners who actually have much more money to offer Central Asia than Iran ever will have, so that’s part of the figuring in [Central Asian states’] relations with Iran,” he added.

At the same time, these countries are close to Russia, whose relationship with Iran underpins a role for Tehran in Central Asia. Nonetheless, with Moscow distracted by the Ukraine conflict and challenged by EU and NATO countries in Central Asia, Russia’s influence in this former Soviet space is not as strong as it was years ago. Furthermore, while Iran is not a major player in Central Asia’s security architecture, one exception, noted Pannier, relates to the struggle against Islamic State Khorasan Province in Afghanistan—a group that has its eyes set on Central Asia...

Describing Kyrgyzstan’s relationship with Israel as “formal but limited,” Aigerim Turgunbaeva, a Bishkek-based journalist, told this author the Central Asian country strikes a “diplomatic balance, engaging both Israel and Iran while refraining from taking sides.” As she put it, Bishkek’s approach toward Iran and Israel is “guided by pragmatism and the desire to preserve constructive relations with all partners.”

Read the full article on The National Interest.

Bruce Pannier and Aigerim Turgunbaeva are research fellows at the Turan Research Center.

The Iranian regime suffered another major setback when the E3 (Britain, France, and Germany) announced on September 28 that sanctions had been reinstated on Iran. The “snapback” reinstates all sanctions imposed before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)nuclear accords in 2015. The E3’s action is a blow to Iran’s diplomacy: Iranian negotiators, led by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, had worked hard to prevent the reactivation of the snapback mechanism, however, their efforts were doomed to failure as they sought to accomplish that goal without offering any concessions. 

The move dealt a severe blow to Iran’s economy, leading to market turmoil and raising fears of higher inflation and tighter restrictions on oil exports. The sanctions came after months of economic instability, exacerbated by the twelve-day war with Israel, which deepened the negative trends already afflicting Iran’s economy. 

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The fall of the Assad regime in Syria last year initially seemed to be a huge blow to Russia, stripping it of a long-time ally and undermining the link between Russia and the African continent, where Russian mercenaries have been actively engaged in the economic and security spheres.

Nine months after Islamist rebels overthrew the Assad dynasty, however, Russian relations with Syria are on an apparent road to recovery. By skillfully using differences among regional actors as well as its status as Syria’s chief weapons supplier, Russia has managed to reconstitute parts of its former influence, including retaining access to three military bases.

Moscow’s most important influence during its decades-long alliance with the Assad regime may be even more important to Syria now — serving as a deterrent or at least a break on Israeli military activities.

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Read the full article on the Stimson Center.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

On August 8 in Washington D.C., Armenia and Azerbaijan reached a landmark arrangement. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev signed a Joint Declaration on Future Relations, pledging to “chart a bright future not bound by past conflict, consistent with the UN Charter.” The historic document stated that the two countries no longer regard each other as enemies. A core component of the Washington deal is the TRIPP, Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, which envisions a transit and trade corridor through Armenia’s southern territory to link Azerbaijan proper with the Nakhchivan enclave. The United States is granted a 99-year mandate to oversee the creation and operation of the transit corridor across Armenian territory.  

For Turkey, the TRIPP offers an opportunity to diversify its commercial routes across the South Caucasus. Until now, Turkey enjoyed only one transit route to the Caspian Sea. The corridor through Georgia built in the 1990s, expanded in the 2000s and consisting of roads, railways and pipelines has been an important factor in strengthening Ankara’s relations with Tbilisi. The Georgia route has boomed since February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine and the north Eurasian route linking China with the EU became less secure. As a viable alternative, the Middle Corridor running from Turkey and Georgia to Central Asia has become more attractive for global transport companies and actors such as the EU and China.

Yet reliance on one route is fraught with risks. The fickle geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus calls for developing alternatives and the route through Armenia’s southern territory is attractive to Ankara and Baku. Indeed, right after the TRIPP announcement, the Turkish side unveiled the start of construction of the Kars-Iğdır-Aralyk-Dilucu railway line, which will become a key element of the corridor. The project’s cost is up to €2.4 billion and is set to serve as yet another link for China-EU trade. More importantly, it will connect Turkey with the Central Asian market and sideline its competitors in the South Caucasus – Russia and Iran.

Read the full article on Turkey Analyst at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak discusses with i24 News the election of the pro-EU Ersin Tatar and what it means for the future of the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, relations with Turkey, and potential reunification.

Watch the full interview here.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Bruce Pannier co-hosts the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast with Michael Hilliard. This episode, Pannier and Hilliard discuss snap elections and reinstating of the death penalty in Kyrgyzstan, major electoral reforms in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan's latest gas ambitions, and more. Both are joined by guest Peter Frankopan - Professor of Global History at Worcester College and author of the Silk Road.

Listen to the full podcast here.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

According to Joseph Epstein, a political analyst on Middle Eastern affairs who writes for Newsweek and Foreign Policy, “the Sharm el-Sheikh Agreement does not guarantee peace or stability.” He argues that “the core of the crisis remains within the Palestinian side, where there is still no genuine leadership capable of achieving lasting peace.”

Speaking to us, Epstein noted that one of the most remarkable developments in recent days — both during the negotiations over Gaza and the Sharm el-Sheikh summit — was “President Trump’s ability to bring together every major regional country except Iran around a rational plan for the Palestinian issue.” This, he said, “is unprecedented,” adding that the decline in regional support for groups such as Hamas could open the door to meaningful change and to the emergence of leaders capable of reaching real peace agreements.

Read the full article on the Independent (Arabic).

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.

Shavkat, 59, doesn’t see himself as a criminal. Speaking from a small apartment in Russia, where he now lives with his fourth wife, the Uzbek-born trader details with quiet confidence the life that he’s built – a life that, by law, shouldn’t exist.

“My first wife is Tajik, the second is Afghan, and the third Turkish,” he told Qadam. “Now I live in Russia with my fourth wife, a Tatar. My wives all know each other.”

Read the full article on Qadam Magazine.

Aigerim Turgunbaeva is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins a panel on Kaan 11 to debate the concept of "total victory" in the war in Gaza.

Watch the full interview in Hebrew here.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The history of the Central Asian states since independence dawned in 1991 centres around the leaders of the five countries.

Even casual observers of the region remember how Nursultan Nazarbayev was Kazakhstan’s president, Islam Karimov was Uzbekistan’s leader and Saparmurat “Turkmenbashi” (head of the Turkmen) Niyazov was Turkmenistan’s demigod. Yet the people behind the scenes who supported this trio and carried out their instructions in the first 10-15 years of independence are now nearly forgotten.

As it happens, two of those people lately died – and, notably, their passing seems for the most part to have been overlooked by the current leaderships of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Read the full article on BNE Intellinews.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins i24 News to discuss Turkey's reaction to the Gaza ceasefire, the Erdogan-Trump relationship, and Turkey's role in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Watch the full interview here.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

In an interview with TVP World, Bruce Pannier of the Caspian Policy Center said Russia “has not many friends in the world these days, and so they’ve got to do what they can to keep such friends as they have.”  

He called the summit “one of the most lackluster” in years, noting that “Russia is slowly losing its influence in the region and grasping at straws.”  

Pannier added that Moscow’s economic promises now pale beside Chinese and European offers, and warned that Central Asian states are “expanding their security relationship with Turkey” as Russia’s capacity to project power and invest diminishes. 

Read the full interview at TVP World.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The recently announced ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has reshaped the dynamics of the Middle East conflict. Under the deal, Hamas has agreed to release all living hostages in a single exchange – an unprecedented move. The agreement comes amid shifting geopolitical calculations involving the United States, Qatar, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia.

To better understand the implications of the ceasefire, Israel’s priorities, and potential regional shifts, News.Az analytical portal spoke with Alexander Grinberg, who analysed the deal, the actors involved, the prospects for future talks, and the possible consequences of violations.

Mr Grinberg is a major (reserve) in the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Military Intelligence Research Department. He holds degrees in Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, and Arabic Language and Literature from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and is a doctoral student in Iranian history at Tel Aviv University.

Read the full interview on News.az.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Ever since the war in Ukraine began, Russia and Iran have expanded their military and political cooperation, which culminated in the signing of a major bilateral agreement that the two inked earlier this year.[i] The development of their relations, however, always stopped short of achieving a full-scale alliance. Neither side has provided ironclad commitments on mutual defence and such a clause was notably absent from the 2025 comprehensive agreement as well. Moreover, the supply of certain critical air-defence systems (such as the S-400), modern fighter jets (like the Su-35), and other equipment has not materialized, indicating that there are still limits to Moscow–Tehran cooperation.

There were no expectations that Moscow would come to Tehran’s help in the latter’s latest round of confrontation with Israel in June, during which Israeli and U.S. forces bombed Iran’s nuclear and aerial defence sites across the country. Iranian politicians have nevertheless voiced their concern about the state of Russia–Iran ties. This is in large part due to Tehran’s suspicions of Moscow in the wake of US-Russia talks, which they expect will not only concern Ukraine but also cover the Iranian issue in a series of tit-for-tat exchanges.[ii] The fear of this remains a major concern for the Iranian leadership, further nurturing the already present distrust between Tehran and Moscow.

Read the full article on Manara Magazine.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Tajikistan’s government has remained antagonistic towards Taliban rule in Afghanistan ever since the militant group first appeared some 30 years ago. And in word and deed, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon has shown that he would prefer not to have to deal with his neighbour’s current government at all, though that has proven impossible.

There are ties that bind the two countries. Slowly but surely, the Tajik authorities are developing a relationship with the Taliban that involves cooperation on local levels and goodwill gestures, but avoids, as much as possible, actually speaking with Taliban officials.

Read the full article on BNE IntelliNews.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

BACKGROUND: On July 18, the European Union and Tajikistan initialed the EPCA. This accord will replace the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement that has been in place since 2010, establishing a legal framework to advance reforms in Tajikistan. The EPCA corresponds closely with the EU’s strategic priorities in Central Asia, which call for a more reinvigorated approach to the strategically significant region. It also seeks to establish a basis for future relations, reflecting emerging economic and political conditions on the ground. Brussels and Dushanbe foresee cooperation in trade as well as in human rights, sustainable development, education, energy, and related areas.
Similarly, in July the two parties discussed the present state of cooperation and prospects for launching new joint projects in mechanical engineering, pharmaceuticals, textiles, and the food industry. Additional areas include the mining sector, with particular focus on the extraction and processing of critical raw materials. Officials from Tajikistan and the EU also considered Dushanbe’s potential participation in the EU Global Gateway initiative, designed to promote sustainable infrastructure and reinforce strategic linkages across Eurasia.

The EPCA builds upon already established cooperation across multiple sectors. For example, during the past five years, 500 Tajik students have studied in Europe through EU funding. The Union has financed projects in the healthcare sector and promotes digital transformation, including initiatives to expand digital access via satellite technology. The EU also contributes to the development and modernization of green energy production in Tajikistan. With European support, the Nurek, Sebzor, and Kayrakkum hydroelectric power station projects are under implementation, and Brussels is assisting the establishment of infrastructure to transmit electricity to South Asia through the CASA-1000 transmission line.

Read the full article on the Central Asia Caucasus Institute.
Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

On August 19, the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian paid a visit to Belarus, where he met with his counterpart, Alyaksandr Lukashenka (President of Iran, August 19). The visit was originally scheduled for early June, but due to the confrontation between Tehran and Tel Aviv, it was postponed until August. The two countries signed 12 cooperation documents, pledging greater cooperation in areas such as politics, tourism, media, investment, and special economic and industrial zones (Tehran Times, August 20). Additionally, the two presidents signed a joint statement to deepen the development of relations between Belarus and Iran. The two sides also expressed satisfaction with the dynamic development of bilateral cooperation, as reflected in the increased frequency of high-level visits in recent years. More importantly, the Iranian president also suggested that the Islamic Republic of Iran could consider developing a strategic partnership model with Belarus (President of Iran, August 20).

Read the full article on the Jamestown Foundation.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joined i24 to discuss how the Trump administration was able to convince Turkey to help push for his peace proposal in Gaza.
Watch the full interview on i24 News.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an Adjunct Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Many in Central Asia welcomed Turkey as a potential “big brother” following the Soviet implosion, Bruce Pannier, a Turan Research Center fellow and board member of the Washington-based Caspian Policy Center, told Amwaj.media. As a NATO member straddling Europe and Asia, Turkey’s identity was appealing to the fledgling Central Asian states. However, domestic economic challenges during the 1990s limited Turkey’s ability to meet regional expectations.

In contrast, Iran aligns with China and Russia in seeking to limit western influence in Central Asia. Tehran sees NATO member Turkey’s growing presence as a proxy for American power, stoking fears of geopolitical encroachment. The Donald Trump administration’s quest to draw Central Asian countries into the Abraham Accords have exacerbated such anxieties.

Ankara wants Central Asian states to be less dependent on Russia and China and more deeply tied to Turkey and Azerbaijan. “They want them to be independent actors insomuch as it strengthens their sovereignty and territorial integrity, so that they can work more effectively with the Turkish government in promoting Turkey’s interests in that region,” said Pannier.

Read the full article on Amwaj Media.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Karakalpakstan, an autonomous republic within Uzbekistan, faces profound challenges,  from the ecological collapse of the Aral Sea and severe public health impacts to political unrest and questions over cultural identity. In this ENC analysis, Bruce Pannier explores the region’s complex history, the events surrounding the July 2022 protests, ongoing development efforts, and the prospects for the Karakalpak people.

Read the full paper at the European Neighborhood Council.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

In early November, Baku will host the General Assembly of the Conference of European Rabbis. The event will focus on the Abraham Accords, religious freedom, and the fight against antisemitism in Europe — topics that align well with Azerbaijan’s effort to present itself as a model of peaceful coexistence among different ethnic and religious groups. Unsurprisingly, Tehran could not let such symbolism go unchallenged. Recently, Iran’s leading media outlets have launched a wave of biased and provocative coverage against Azerbaijan, blending genuine geopolitical concerns with outright antisemitism. 

The most significant statement regarding the rabbis’ conference came from Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s top advisor, the seasoned diplomat, Ali Akbar Velayati. He dubbed the gathering “surprising and regrettable” and accused Azerbaijan of “crossing religious boundaries” and “encroaching on the dignity of Shiism.” Velayati further linked the event to what he characterized as Azerbaijan’s broader alignment with the Abraham Accords and the pro-normalization trend among some Muslim-majority states in Central Asia. He characterized the initiative as a “senseless, anti-Islamic, and anti-humanitarian” step that, he warned, would ultimately backfire against Baku.

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Uzbekistan has confirmed it will be building a large nuclear power plant (NPP) with two 1000-megawatt (MW) reactors as the country prepares for a sharp increase in electricity consumption in the coming years. Uzbekistan’s state atomic energy company, Uzatom, posted on September 26 that a new agreement calls for both a large and small NPP to be constructed at the same site in Uzbekistan.

The revised plan for NPPs in Uzbekistan combines agreements the country signed with the Russian state nuclear company Rosatom in 2018 and 2024.

Uzbek Prime Minister Abdullo Aripov and his Russian counterpart at the time, Dmitri Medvedev, signed a deal in September 2018 for a large NPP with two VVER-1200 reactors.  However, in late May 2024, during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Uzbekistan, a new agreement was signed for six small reactors, each with a capacity of 55 MW. Preparation work for six RITM-200N reactors started shortly after in the Farish district of Jizzakh Province.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

‘Azerbaijan has been involved in the Middle East for some time’, Joseph Epstein, head of the Turan Research Centre, told OC Media.

From Epstein’s view, Azerbaijan’s interest in the Middle East has grown substantially since 2020, saying that ‘Baku has increased cooperation with the Gulf and has been particularly active in Syria’.

Speaking of Azerbaijan’s regional approach, Epstein argued that while ‘the motivations differ by country, there is a clear overall trend: Baku is positioning itself as a trusted regional mediator’.

‘The resolution of the [Nagorno-Karabakh] conflict has freed political and diplomatic bandwidth for Baku’, Epstein said.

‘Azerbaijan is now seeking to shift from a singular focus on territorial recovery to a broader foreign-policy agenda’.

Read the full article on OC Media.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation's Kan 11 to discuss Turkey's goals ahead of meetings at the United Nations and White House.

Watch the full interview in Hebrew here.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an adjunct fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The establishment of silk production and research stations in the 19th century Europe

responded to the needs that emerged on the continent during that time. The lack of scientific study

of silk production became evident as early as the 1740-1760s when silkworms were affected by an

epizootic disease, and the measures taken proved insufficient. The necessity arose to create a solid

scientific foundation for silk production and its research, for which special stations were

established. Germans, Austrians, and Italians were the first among European countries to set up

sericulture stations. These institutions were essential not only for studying existing problems in

sericulture but also to address the requirements for the future development of this field.

The objectives of a sericulture station usually were to determine the conditions that would

promote the development of sericulture in various geographical and climatic environments;

furthermore, to develop specific methods for achieving the first goal, to study different diseases,

to research new silkworm breeds through experiments, and in the end to provide necessary

recommendations. The ultimate goal was to implement innovations in agriculture in order to raise

general economic level. In Europe sericulture stations were often created based on demands

presented by local commercial circles, which were interested in raising their countries’ economic

productivity. In other words, as will be described below, one of the main purposes of the stations

was to disseminate scientific knowledge about sericulture. Moreover, the stations also aimed at the

implementation of acquired knowledge in agriculture, particularly through providing information

to the population on how to rear silkworms.

Read the full article on the State Silk Museum.

Emil Avdaliani is a research fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The journey from the weather station to the Kara-Batkak Glacier takes about four hours across rocky terrain and roaring rivers. The glacier sees few tourists, and the existing trails tend to be tracks created by livestock grazing on the slopes in summer. My solo trip took four hours, and just before arriving at the most turbulent river, a shepherd suddenly appeared to help me cross. Once majestic, Kara-Batkak in August is now blackened in places—a jolting sight.

The glacier’s name translates to “Black Mud,” a reference to the moraines that stain the meltwater. Water flowing from the glacier turns from clear blue to murky gray as it passes through layers of rock and sediment, creating the colored streams that locals see in the valleys below. Kara-Batkak is a medium-sized glacier located in the Terskey Ala-Too range of Kyrgyzstan’s Inner Tian Shan, south of Lake Issyk-Kul. It rises to elevations ranging from 3,300 to 4,400 meters. The glacier’s structure is complex, with terminal zones, steep icefalls, flat sections, and three drainage basins, reaching a maximum thickness of 114 meters and holding roughly 0.096 km³ of ice. Kara-Batkak feeds the Kyzyl-Suu River, sustaining agriculture and communities in the Issyk-Kul and Chuy regions.
Read the full article on Eurasianet.

Aigerim Turgunbaeva is a research fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins i24 news to discuss recent protests in Turkey over the judicial crackdown on the opposition CHP party.

Watch the full interview here.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an adjunct fellow at the Turan Research Center.

When the leaders of long-warring Armenia and Azerbaijan met at the White House on August 8, they initialed a peace agreement—not a final treaty, but a gateway to one. They also signed a joint declaration establishing the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), a twenty-five-mile corridor designed to link Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhchivan through Armenia. Together, these moves mark major wins for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the United States. At the same time, Russia emerges as the biggest loser.

The Trump administration deserves credit for arbitrating the sensitive talks over a brutal conflict that displaced more than a million people and left more than 35,000 dead. But the diplomatic breakthrough was also made possible by a series of Russian miscalculations and by Moscow’s disregard for the sovereignty of its neighbors.

If the United States wants to build on this achievement, then it should promote Armenia’s regional integration, move quickly to transform the TRIPP from an idea into a reality, and deepen its ties with other countries in the region. Doing so would weaken Russia’s grip on the South Caucasus, which Moscow has long treated as part of its own domain, much like it has with Ukraine. Despite the independence of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan after the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia continues to view their borders as fluid markers of power, subject to revision at will. 

Read the full article, co-written with Sheila Paylan, at the Atlantic Council.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center at the Yorktown Institute.

Sheila Paylan is a human rights lawyer and senior legal consultant with the United Nations.

Iranian media announced on August 3 the creation of a new security body called the “Defense Council”. The new entity will operate under the auspices of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), which centralizes strategic military decision-making.

The announcement followed reports by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-affiliated Fars News of a significant structural overhaul within Iran’s security establishment.  According to these reports, the overhaul would include the establishment of the Defense Council as part of a new governance arrangement in the realm of defense and security. Fars suggested that the Defense Council would focus on “strategic missions of defense policy” without specifying exactly what that means.

The reshuffle occurred just a couple of days after August 1 when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s top adviser, Ali Larijani, was appointed as the new secretary of the SNSC. The changes are a clear indication of Larijani’s growing power. By contrast, the Defense Council is formally headed by President Masoud Pezeshkian, the Council’s secretary has yet to be named. One should bear in mind that the president also chairs the SNSC, making the division of responsibilities even less clear.

The creation of the new security body underscores the limits of the Islamic Republic’s ability to reflect on itself and carry out genuine reforms to address its vulnerabilities. This is mainly because those vulnerabilities stem largely from the strength of informal networks within Iranian politics. It is equally important to understand that the regime’s main goal is not to fix military weaknesses or learn lessons but to preserve its survival by maintaining Khamenei’s rule. 

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Turan Center Director Joseph Epstein joined Arun Anand, host of the Nationalist View podcast for a discussion on the Israeli attack on Doha, the focus of the Turan Research Center, Iran's reaction to Operation Rising Lion, exposed cracks in Iran’s regional military and intelligence apparatus, the future of the Iranian nuclear program and more.

Watch on Youtube here.

China’s relationship with the South Caucasus is entering a new phase, defined by a greater economic engagement, expanding trade, and a steady elevation of political partnerships with the three regional countries—Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. The region, once peripheral to Beijing’s Eurasian strategy or its sprawling Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), has now become more vital amid shifting connectivity across the continent and heightened great power competition.

Central to this shift is the growing importance of the so-called Middle Corridor—a trans-Eurasian trade route spanning from the Black Sea to Central Asia—that has gained momentum amid the wars and general instability in Ukraine and the Middle East. When Beijing unveiled the BRI more than a decade ago, the South Caucasus barely figured in its plans. At the time, the Russian route—backed by Soviet-era infrastructure and political reliability—offered a more straightforward path for China towards the European Union (EU).

Read the full article on the Observer Research Foundation.

Among the agreements signed in August when the U.S. president hosted the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington was the “Trump Road for Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP). Intended to link Azerbaijan proper with its ethnic enclave of Nakhchivan via southern Armenia, the TRIPP has the potential of transforming security and connectivity in the South Caucasus and beyond.

Iran regards the TRIPP negatively, fearing it will jeopardize its land border with Armenia, a long-time ally. But Tehran may not be able to do much to prevent its realization due to other geopolitical constraints and fear of further antagonizing Washington.

In the wake of the August summit, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs talkedof “the negative consequences of any form of foreign intervention, especially near shared borders.”

Read the full article on the Stimson Center.

Emil Avdaliani is a research fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins Haviv Rettig Gur on the Ask Haviv Anything podcast to discuss the historic role of Jews during the Ottoman Empire.

Listen to the full podcast here.

Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak is an adjunct fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak joins i24's Arabistim program to discuss Turkey's ambitions in the Middle East, Israel, and Gaza.

Watch the full video here.

Last year, despite a $9 billion trade volume in imports and exports, Turkey unilaterally decided to suspend trade. Yet, as Dr. Hay Eytan Cohen Yanarocak of Tel Aviv’s Moshe Dayan Center told ALL ISRAEL NEWS, Turkish ships continued sailing to Israel.

“The goods carried in these shipments were sent to be delivered to the Palestinian Authority. In many of these cases, Palestinians receiving the goods would later hand them over to their Israeli counterparts in exchange for small commissions,” Yanarocak explained. “Now, with the newly adopted sanctions, no Turkish-flagged ship is sailing to Israel anymore. This constitutes a significant blow to bilateral trade, which was supposedly considered completely terminated.”

Read the full article on allisraelnews.

On August 28, at 9:35 am, local time, Uzbekistan’s resident population reached 38 million people.

Central Asia’s population in general has been increasing at a phenomenal rate since its five countries became independent after the collapse of the Soviet Union in late 1991, but Uzbekistan is the only one of the five to have seen such a high pace of growth.

Half of all people

The current trends indicate that Uzbekistan’s population will account for half of all people in Central Asia within a few years.

Figures from the Soviet Union’s census of 1989 show the Uzbek population standing at 19,810,077 people, so it was somewhere over 20mn when the USSR met its end in late 1991 and the Central Asian countries became independent.

Read more at BNE Intellinews.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Pyramids of various kinds of melons, fruits laid across the ground to form intricate, traditional patterns, as well as an abundance of fruit, dried fruit, nuts, and bread overflowing from tables, and even fountains, surrounding the edible ground arrangement, and grapes hanging from poles.

As an advertisement for national products, a background for international events, or a gift for an ally, Tajikistan is gaining fame for elaborate displays of fruit. It is an amazing sight, with fruits and nuts arranged in patterns that cover large areas of the pavilions and gardens where foreign guests are being entertained.

However, as good as these lavish presentations look and taste, these cornucopias are being exhibited in some of Central Asia’s poorest countries, and, unsurprisingly, there has been some discontent and some scandals.

Read the full article on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

American diplomacy scored a historical achievement on August 8, when President Donald Trump hosted a meeting between Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Washington. The two leaders signed a peace pledge in the presence of the U.S. president ending the thirty-year-old conflict between the two Caucasian nations.

Despite its significance, the event barely registered in international and attracted little commentary form major media outlets. Yet the agreement warrants in-depth analysis because of its far-reaching implications beyond the South Caucasus.

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, Oman and Russia’s bilateral relations have grown significantly, driven by socioeconomic development in Oman and wider geopolitics in the Middle East.

In 2023, Russian and Omani officials exchanged several visits. In July, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made his first visit to Muscat since 2016. In September, a Russian delegation of law enforcement agency representatives, the Rosatom State Corporation, and the central bank visited Oman. Just three months later, the Omani minister of culture, sports, and youth, Crown Prince Sayyid Theyazin bin Haitham al-Said, traveled to Moscow and met with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The two countries have since worked to strengthen economic ties. In 2023, Oman’s foreign minister said the country was working with Russia on reaching a mutual investment promotion agreement. Oman also participated as an honorary guest at the 2024 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum and at the 2024 international economic forum “Russia – Islamic World: KazanForum.” In October 2024, Muscat hosted the business mission “Made in Russia,” with 39 Russian companies from a range of sectors. Trade ties have grown drastically: In 2010 trade turnover between the countries was $12 million and exceeded $400 million by 2023. However, the trade balance has tilted in favor of Russia – in 2022, Russia exported $246.8 million in goods to Oman and imported only $4 million.

Read the full article on the Arab Gulf States Institute.

The population of Central Asia when the Soviet Union collapsed in late 1991 and the five Central Asian republics became independent countries was some 50 million people. Thirty-four years later, the population of the region is about 80 million. However, in Kyrgyzstan, the birth rate has been declining in recent years, and it has officials confused and alarmed.

The Data

Kyrgyz parliamentary deputy Dastan Bekeshev raised the matter on August 7, noting the country has seen a steady fall in the number of babies born from 2019, when it reached a record of some 173,000, to about 140,000 in 2024. Bekeshev was responding to recently released figures from Kyrgyzstan’s National Statistics Committee that showed the birth rate for 2020 was 156,112, for 2021 it was 150,164, climbing a bit to 150,225 in 2022, then dropping to 145,977 in 2023, and 140,419 in 2024.

According to the Health Ministry’s chief specialist on demography, Raisa Asylbasheva, there are currently some 1.8 million women in Kyrgyzstan considered to be of childbearing age.

Asylbasheva said it could be cyclical and “in five years, possibly, there will be an increase.”

Bekeshev, however, has pointed out that if the trend continues, “In 15-20 years, there will be fewer young people in the country who can work, pay taxes, and provide for pensioners.”

Read more at Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

It has been a long, long time since relations between the South Caucasian nations of Armenia and Azerbaijan have been so good. The signing of several deals in the White House on August 8 has delivered that, confounded Russia, which breezily describes this as its backyard, and brought prizes to the US, which wins has a direct stake in the region. 

It’s all very unusual. As a result of the agreement, the United States now has a 99-year mandate to oversee the creation and operation of a potentially lucrative transit corridor. The project — branded the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP — uses Armenian land that will be subleased by the US to a consortium tasked with its construction and management, which aims to link Turkey in the west to the Caspian Sea in the east, offering a shorter route than the traditional through Georgia.  

Read more at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

There has been a split in Tajikistan’s largest opposition party.

Muhammadiqbol Sadriddin, who has lately been criticising the leadership of the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT), on August 6 released a statement announcing the formation of the Reformers Movement of Tajikistan.

Tajikistan’s embattled opposition already faces enormous hurdles in challenging the firmly entrenched government of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, in power for some 33 years. The rift in the IRPT is likely to weaken the opposition’s efforts.

Read the full article on BNE Intellinews.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

When President Trump hosted the signing ceremony of the peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia last week, celebrations weren’t limited to Washington, Baku and Yerevan.

In Jerusalem, Israeli officials welcomed the initiative led by one of their closest allies, Azerbaijan, in partnership with the U.S. The trilateral cooperation had been a shared strategic goal. Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, recognizing the ineffectiveness of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Minsk Group as peace arbiters, opted instead for direct negotiations with Washington, supported by Jerusalem.

Now, Mr. Trump has an opportunity to reshape the Middle East and Eurasia by expanding the Abraham Accords to include Azerbaijan and Central Asian nations such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. A strategic enlargement of the accords would counter adversaries, diversify supply chains, and build a bloc of moderate, pro-Western Muslim-majority nations aligned with the U.S. and Israel. It would also showcase Israeli outreach, helping counter the anti-Israel global narrative.

Read more at the Wall Street Journal.

Recently, Reuters reported that U.S. President Donald Trump was considering expanding the Abraham Accords to Azerbaijan and Central Asia. Turan Center Director Joseph Epstein breaks down what this would offer Uzbekistan.

Watch the full interview on Radio Ozodlik.

Iran suffered a defeat in the 12-day war with Israel. Its limited response to the IDF’s devastating strikes, alongside the penetration of Israeli intelligence into the highest security and political levels, revealed the fragility of Iran’s conventional military strength. Meanwhile, domestic hardships such as water shortages and droughts continue to worsen. However, neither the devastating war nor domestic hardships caused the Iranian regime to abandon even a fraction of its ideology. Since its grand strategy is entirely dictated by ideology, the regime has not yet shown any signs of adjusting its approach to reality. Although Iran’s asymmetric assets have either been lost or significantly weakened, Tehran still clings to other pillars of its strategy.

One of these pillars is what the Iranian doctrine refers to as “the unity of Resistance fronts” (vahdat-e jabhe-hay-e moqavvamat) or “the unity of battlefields” (vahdat-emaydanha). The late Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by U.S. forces, was credited with coining this term, which has since entered the Iranian strategic lexicon. This doctrine suggests that Iran and its proxies form a single, coordinated front across the Middle East. Despite setbacks on individual battlefields, Iran believes the integrated “Axis of Resistance” can employ asymmetric tactics, ideological appeal, and information warfare to outlast and weaken its adversaries. Each resistance front serves a specific goal that aligns with Iran’s long-term policy objectives. The military actions of some Iranian proxies are continually coordinated with the diplomatic efforts of Iran’s allies elsewhere. Consequently, one of the biggest mistakes Middle East analysts can make is viewing various resistance fronts as entirely separate issues without recognizing their close connection to Iran. For example, you cannot address the Houthis without considering that they receive guidance and weapons from Tehran.

Read more at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.

Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

In an article for OC Media, Turan Center Director Joseph Epstein discusses Azerbaijan's relationship with its Jewish community and Israel, the potential for a trilateral partnership, and more.

Read the full article on OC Media.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Amid attacks by Israel and the United States, Iran has unveiled a new transcontinental trade route to China in line with one of the central pillars of Iranian foreign policy: to position Iran at the center of shifting and growing Eurasian connectivity.

Traditionally, the Persian Gulf has been critical to Iranian trade. The more recent push to develop land routes to Central Asia aims to diversify commercial links and boost cooperation with a booming area of economic growth.

These land routes have become increasingly important as the region redefines itself as a major node in transcontinental trade, between Russia and Afghanistan, as well as between China and the European Union. Major powers have all established separate summit formats with the five Central Asian states and seek trade and investment opportunities with them. In the past, Central Asia was not at the epicenter of Iran’s foreign policy, yet this might be changing given the region’s growing economic and transit potential.

Read more at the Stimson Center.

The military campaign by the United States and Israel against Iran, which ended in U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on June 22, puts Russia in an uncomfortable geopolitical position. Moscow has already endured the loss of one of its most strategically vital clients with the fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. Partnered with a weakened Iran, Moscow could face a far greater challenge to its ability to influence developments in the Middle East.

Read the full article on the Gulf International Forum.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

In late June, as part of a police raid in Yekaterinburg, Russian security forces arrested a dozen ethnic Azerbaijanis, two of whom died in custody, with a subsequent autopsy reportedly showing signs they had been beaten. To register the seriousness with which it viewed the incident, the government of Azerbaijan arrested Russian nationals it said were illegally living and working in Baku, while also rolling back all Russia-related cultural activities and downgrading interparliamentary work. Both sides subsequently summoned their ambassadors to file official protests.

Far from being an isolated incident, the diplomatic spat between Moscow and Baku reflects a broader shift in the balance of power in the South Caucasus, where Russia’s position is in flux. Long considered one of the core spaces of Moscow’s geopolitical sphere of influence and an anchor of its claim to great power status, the region is now being increasingly contested by other actors. From China, the European Union and the U.S., to Turkey, Iran and even the wealthy Gulf states, external powers are playing a greater economic and geopolitical role in the South Caucasus.

Read the full article on World Politics Review.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Research Fellow Bruce Pannier reflects on three decades of reporting and analysis, from his early days gathering scraps of information in the pre-internet 1990s to today’s denser, more contested media landscape.

He joins podcast host Peter Leonard to explore how both Central Asian authorities and audiences have changed over time, the new sophistication of state information control, and the shifting boundaries of censorship, especially in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan.

They also examine how growing geopolitical autonomy, deepening partnerships with Gulf states and China, and a rising standard of living shape domestic politics.

Finally, they look to the future: Will Central Asia become more technocratic, more pious, or both? And what happens when tomorrow’s leaders know both global capitalism and the Quran? It’s a candid, thoughtful exchange with someone who has seen it all.

Listen to the full podcast on CAPS unlock.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

UN experts have recently warned that Afghanistan has become a hub for foreign terrorists -- including those from Central Asia. Research Fellow Hussain Ehsani discusses the Islamic State's current standing in Afghanistan.

Watch the full interview here on Afghanistan International (Persian).

Hussain Ehsani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

United Nations experts say that the Taliban has used forces from Tajikistan’s Jamaat Ansarullah, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Imam Bukhari Brigade, and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, especially in Northern Afghanistan. Research Fellow Hussain Ehsani comments for BBC Persian.

Watch the interview on BBC Persian.

Hussain Ehsani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Given the intensity of the recent military confrontation between Iran and Israel, Tehran's influence in the South Caucasus could experience fundamental changes. The short war between the Islamic Republic and Israel/United States has underscored the shifting balance of power in the Middle East, with Israel now emerging as the dominant military force in the region. The relative weakening of Iranian power is set to impact its neighbors, and the South Caucasus region has been particularly vulnerable to geopolitical reverberations from instability in the Middle East.

One of the possible repercussions is the impact on the ongoing negotiation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Given the fragile nature of the talks and Baku’s far more powerful position vis-à-vis Armenia, Iran’s more retrenched posture could further embolden Azerbaijan regarding the opening of the Zangezur corridor, a move opposed by the Armenian side. For the moment, however, there is no evident shift in Azerbaijan’s posture indicating that it might encroach on Armenia’s territory. Baku is pragmatic and understands that such a move would kill the ongoing peace process with Yerevan. Furthermore, a forceful solution to the Zangezur corridor issue would destroy the good relations Baku has cultivated with Tehran, which is highly interested in preserving the existing balance of power in the South Caucasus.

Read more on Caucasus Watch.

Emil Avdaliani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Russia introduced new regulations for foreign citizens in the country on February 5, and started keeping a list at the Interior Ministry of foreigners who are living or staying in Russia without proper documentation, the “controlled persons registry.” The rules are aimed at migrant laborers working in Russia, many of whom come from Central Asian countries.

Russia has set a September 10 deadline for foreigners in the country to clear up all their paperwork with the authorities or face expulsion with a ban on re-entry. Judging by recent comments from Kyrgyzstan’s ambassador to Russia, Kubanychbek Bokontayev, many might not make that September 10 deadline.
Read more on the Times of Central Asia.

Bruce Pannier is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

The twelve-day war between Israel and Iran, marked by targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), nuclear scientists, and key state infrastructure, including IRIB broadcasting headquarters and intelligence centers, triggered a paradigmatic shift in the security landscape of the Middle East. Israel’s focused strategy of precision strikes on predetermined targets, coupled with superior intelligence and operational acumen, allowed Tel Aviv’s security apparatus to swiftly gain and expand its intelligence and tactical superiority over Iran’s security domain. For a period, Israel even maintained de facto control over Iran’s airspace. The situation reached a point where certain Iranian officials, including the foreign minister, reportedly required Israel’s approval to exit the country, an unprecedented revelation that starkly underscored Iran’s diminished deterrent capacity in the region after 46 years of aggressive security posturing.

However, this paradigm shift extended beyond military and intelligence dynamics or the mere weakening of Iran’s regional axis. It heralded a broader behavioral transformation among key players across the Middle East. One notable example was Hezbollah’s conspicuous inaction during the twelve-day conflict. Despite its foundational purpose, established by Iran in 1982 to pursue Tehran’s regional objectives and serve as a strategic lever against Israel, Hezbollah refrained from any military engagement. This restraint was striking, particularly given Hezbollah’s traditional role in responding to escalations involving Israel.

On a regional level, one of the most telling post-war developments was the political discourse and social reactions from segments of Afghanistan’s intellectual elite concerning the Iran-Israel war. Afghan political figures, cultural leaders, poets, intellectuals, and university professors expressed varied reactions on social media, voicing support for the Islamic Republic of Iran against the Israeli state. This stance seemingly stemmed from a belief system rooted in shared linguistic, religious, cultural, and geographical ties between the Afghan and Iranian peoples. For these Afghan elites, endorsing Iran in its confrontation with Israel was perceived as a dual test, both cultural and political, through which they sought to reaffirm a sense of regional solidarity and emerge morally vindicated.

Read the original Persian article on 8am Media.
Read the English translation here.

Hussain Ehsani is a Research Fellow at the Turan Research Center.

Joseph Epstein of the Turan Research Center at the Yorktown Institute argues that bringing Azerbaijan into the Accords would signal to Muslim majority states in Central Asia such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan that open cooperation with Israel is both possible and worthwhile. It would also squeeze Tehran which sees a secular Shia state aligned with Israel and Turkey as a strategic problem.

Epstein also cautions against tying Azerbaijan’s entry to unrelated conditions like a peace deal with Armenia because that would undercut the spirit of the Accords and risk a fragile process in the South Caucasus. The Accords were built to unite Muslim countries that choose tolerance and reject extremism. Armenia is not part of that track and forcing it in would be counterproductive.

Read the full article on the Jerusalem Post.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and a Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

In an interview with Arutz Sheva, Turan Center Director Joseph Epstein explains why Baku's decades-long partnership with Israel and Washington positions it as the next candidate for the Abraham Accords.

Read the full article on Arutz 7 Israel National News.

On July 12, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa made a strategic visit to Azerbaijan, signaling a new chapter in bilateral ties with a sharp focus on deepening economic cooperation. Beyond politics and trade, Sharaa emphasized that the relationship between Damascus and Baku is anchored in shared history and culture — underscoring Syria’s strong support for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity amid a shifting regional landscape.

Baku and Damascus signed a memorandum of understanding on energy cooperation, with Azerbaijan agreeing to export gas to Syria via Turkey. For Syria, a country grappling with energy shortages, the agreement marks a major success that could significantly improve its domestic situation. Although the timeline for initiating exports remains uncertain, projections suggest that Azerbaijan will supply around 1 billion cubic meters of gas to Syria annually through Turkey.

Azerbaijan’s gas exports could eventually reach beyond Syria. With the rehabilitation of the Turkey-Syria gas pipeline, it is feasible that Azerbaijan — a country with experience exporting to Middle Eastern markets — could send gas to other countries such as Jordan. Specific projects on gas pipelines have already been unveiled. For instance, Azerbaijan has been Israel’s main oil supplier (via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline), covering some 40-60% of the country’s oil needs.

More importantly, the energy memorandum with Syria is part of Azerbaijan’s broader strategy to diversify its gas exports. Baku's energy policy, once focused almost exclusively on Europe, is shifting: The Middle East is emerging as a solid buyer of Caspian oil and gas.

Read more at Al Monitor.

Turan Center Director Joseph Epstein joins Professor Tim Milosch of Biola University to discuss recent events in the Middle East. They covered renewed Israeli offensives in Gaza to Operation Midnight Hammer to the rush to rehabilitate Syria as a member of the international system to the possibility of a Kurdish peace, and the expansion of the Abraham Accords.

Listen on the Tim Talks Politics Podcast.

Recently, the Iranian Foreign Minister said that his country would not stop its nuclear program despite the damage inflicted on it by the Israeli American strikes. Is Iran still threatening Israel? Research Fellow Alex Grinberg weighs in.

Listen to the interview at Radio Judaica.

Bruce Pannier, a senior analyst at the Turan Research Center who has studied Central Asia for many years, calls the developments a new regional trend.

“It’s fascinating to observe what I’d call ‘daughter diplomacy.’ Recently, Oguljahan Atabaeva met with Saida Mirziyoyeva in Uzbekistan, and now — with Aliyev’s daughter in Azerbaijan. This suggests she is being prepared for active participation in Turkmenistan’s political system. Lately, her public appearances have even been more prominent than those of her brother, the president. This signals potential changes. Saida Mirziyoyeva already plays an important role in Uzbek politics, and Leyla Aliyeva is also well known. The logic behind these meetings is clear — this is no coincidence, but a new format of interstate engagement centered on the role of women in diplomacy,” Pannier said.

Read the full article here.

“When Afghan media reports on trade with Russia or the Lapis Lazuli Corridor, they’re saying this opens up a whole new trade route for them so they’re not dependent on Pakistan and stuff arriving in Pakistani ports and then coming into Afghanistan. So, for [the Afghans] it does have some significance,” Bruce Pannier, a Turan Research Center fellow and board member of the Caspian Policy Center, told this author.

“As far as a North-South trade route opening up that will connect Afghanistan with Russia, which could be used to bring Russian goods into Afghanistan, that should help the average Afghan citizen a little bit as far as being able to obtain basic wears and maybe canned food or something like that,” he added.

Read the full article on National Interest.

Israel’s military strike on Iran in mid-June, “Operation Rising Lion,” alongside U.S. attacks on nuclear sites, exposed the Islamic Republic’s military vulnerabilities and proved the regime to be a paper tiger. But this success has triggered a dangerous response: Tehran is now striking back—not just with missiles and threats toward its neighbors, but with mass arrests, executions and repression at home.

From Azerbaijan and Iraqi Kurdistan to the streets of Tehran and Baluchistan, Iran’s targets are not random. They are chosen to signal strength, distract from weakness and restore control—whether through violence, propaganda or both. The regime sees its enemies as foreign and domestic, and often treats them the same way.

To prevent a wider crisis, Washington and Jerusalem must act quickly to deter further repression and aggression.

Read more at the Jewish News Syndicate.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Five years after the Abraham Accords normalized relations between four Arab nations and Israel, the historic agreements are in murky waters.

Its many proponents have been waiting for Saudi Arabia to join the pact, which is unlikely as long as the war in Gaza continues. However, even if Riyadh joins tomorrow, a larger question remains: What is the future of the accords after peace?

The Abraham Accords were much more than a peace agreement with Israel. They were the culmination of a regional pivot—the choice to pursue a policy of tolerance and regional stability rather than continue the hatred and sectarianism that have wrought so much havoc in the Middle East and the Muslim world.

To continue this movement, the accords must evolve beyond warm bilateral ties into a multilateral alliance—a bloc of Muslim-majority countries with warm relations with Israel, united not just by shared interests, but by shared values. Specifically, a commitment to tolerance, peace, and fighting Islamic extremism.

A first move should be to include Muslim-majority countries that already have warm ties with Israel, like Azerbaijan, Cameroon, Kazakhstan, Kosovo, and Uzbekistan.

With US support, the bloc could help the Abraham Accords movement reach its full potential. The created alliance could then serve as the nucleus for a powerful global movement grounded in tolerance, modernization, and strategic cooperation.

Read more at the Atlantic Council.

Joseph Epstein is the Director of the Turan Research Center and Senior Fellow at the Yorktown Institute.

Joseph Epstein, Director of the Turan Research Center, joins i24 News to break down the recent meeting between Israeli and Syrian officials in Baku. Why is Azerbaijan playing host? What does it stand to gain?

Watch the full interview here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=liF9dlZN0yA

Turan Research Center’s Joseph Epstein was quoted in Iran International’s analysis of Tucker Carlson’s interview of Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian:

Tucker Carlson’s interview with Iran’s president Masoud Pezeshkian was all Tehran could wish for, experts told Iran International: a global stage, no pushback, and a direct line to Donald Trump’s base.

“This was a major victory for Iranian information warfare operations,” said Marcus Kolga, a leading expert on foreign disinformation. “Whether intentionally or not, Carlson is acting as a significant conduit and amplifier for Iranian government information operations.”

The interview was recorded remotely, unlike the one Carlson did with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin in February 2024.

“(Carlson) offers Pezeshkian and the Iranian regime a platform—without context or pushback—allowing Tehran to shape the record to Carlson’s viewers and listeners unopposed,” Kolga added.

A moment highlighted by many critics was when Pezeshkian asserted that Israel had tried to assassinate him without offering any evidence.

“He was trying to… put forward the message that this is Israel tricking America into getting involved in this. This really isn’t America’s war. Iran and America, we have nothing to fight about.” director of the Yorktown Institute’s Turan Research Center Joseph Epstein said.

Epstein argued the interview fit Carlson’s broader pattern of offering authoritarian figures a platform to rewrite narratives without scrutiny—an approach that often blurs the line between journalistic curiosity and ideological alignment.

Administrators of the Post-Soviet Conflicts Research Program cited the Turan Research Center in a publication on how the Iran-Israel war was covered in the South Caucasus.

"It’s important to note the difference in target audiences for Iranian and Armenian fakes. As Joseph Epstein, Director of the DC-based Turan Research Center pointed out, Iranian propaganda seeks to create an imaginary “ring of fire around Iran” by claiming that it is fighting not just Israel but a large coalition, which includes the United States, Azerbaijan and Turkey. For years, Tehran has committed itself to destroying Israel and has bragged about its military superiority while dismissing the Jewish State as a vulnerable colonial outpost reliant on foreign powers for its existence. Now, Israel’s military domination of Iran is turning that narrative on its head."

Read more at the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.

Turan Research Center Senior Fellow Alex Grinberg joined Gadi Taub on the Shomer Saf -- or Gatekeeper-- podcast to discuss whether the Islamic Republic of Iran could collapse following Operation Rising Lion.

Listen here.

“Although we still don’t have a complete picture, it appears that the Israeli strikes have been highly successful. According to some Israeli intelligence assessments, they were even more effective than anticipated—especially since the initial wave of strikes targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile factories and platforms, as well as senior military and nuclear personnel. This would significantly constrain Iran’s ability to mount a major retaliatory response,” said Joseph Epstein, a Middle East analyst.

Epstein continued in his interview: “The scenes from the first Israeli strike on Iran reminded me of what happened with Hezbollah in Lebanon last year, when Jerusalem preemptively took out the top brass of Tehran’s most powerful regional ally. At the time, many expected Israel to face a furious response from Hezbollah that would cause unprecedented damage—but that didn’t happen. Israel had simultaneously destroyed major military and missile stockpiles, effectively neutralizing much of Hezbollah’s capacity for retaliation.”

He added, “We must remember that unlike the war in Gaza, which caught Israel’s military and security institutions by surprise, Israel has spent years preparing and planning for major operations against both Hezbollah and Iran. In the coming days, we’ll likely learn more about the extent of those preparations.”

Epstein concluded, “Still, Israeli officials quickly warned that Iran’s response could inflict serious damage. For now, Iran seems to be weighing two main options: continued salvos of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, or attempts to target Jewish and Israeli sites abroad. The key question in the hours and days ahead is whether the United States will intervene to defend Israel, as it has in the past.”

Read more on the Independent Arabic.