Turan Research Center director Joseph Epstein was quoted at length by Azattyq Asia, the Russian-language Central Asia service of RFE/RL, in a feature on whether the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway (CKU) now under construction will compete with the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route through Kazakhstan, or whether the region's corridors will consolidate into a single network.
Epstein treated the current interest in new routes as a structural shift rather than a temporary reaction to geopolitical shocks. Those shocks exposed weaknesses in the traditional routes through Russia and Iran, and logistics planners have now seen how quickly a political decision can disrupt shipping — a lesson that outlasts any particular conflict. "Cargo doesn't look for the cheapest route; it looks for the most predictable one," he said. "A corridor that is 20 percent cheaper but closes periodically is worth nothing to a company bound by delivery deadlines." China's own investment in the Middle Corridor is the strongest evidence: "When the country with the largest shipping volumes begins hedging against risks tied to its own partners, that isn't a reaction to the news cycle. That is a structural calculation."
He was measured on whether the Middle Corridor can replace the Russian route in the foreseeable future. Geography constrains it: a multimodal corridor that loads cargo onto rail, then onto a vessel, then back onto rail is structurally more expensive than an end-to-end overland haul, and every transshipment adds cost, time and a potential point of failure. The imbalance between westbound and eastbound traffic and the gap in scale compound the problem. Substitution, however, is the wrong benchmark. "The question isn't whether the Middle Corridor replaces Russia, but whether a better alternative exists. It doesn't. And the corridor has improved substantially on the metric that matters most: transit time has fallen from 28–32 days to 13–17." For the states of Central Asia and the South Caucasus, he added, the value of a corridor extends well past transit fees — terminals, logistics services, customs revenue and the leverage a transport hub carries all arrive with the cargo.
Epstein described Beijing's approach as maximizing optionality. "Its strategy isn't to pick one winning route, but to ensure that no single route and no single partner can hold Chinese trade hostage. China is effectively building 'middle corridors' inside the Middle Corridor itself." CKU is the clearest expression of that logic, since it creates a southern path that does not depend on the Kazakh crossings at Dostyk and Khorgos — a mirror image of the multi-vector foreign policies the Central Asian states themselves practice. Optionality is valuable, and it carries a price: the gauge break reduces CKU's efficiency, instability in Afghanistan complicates the Trans-Afghan line, and some new directions may remain standby options rather than functioning corridors.
Over the next five to seven years, Epstein expects Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan to remain the principal beneficiaries of transit. Kazakhstan holds a more direct and less complex route from the Chinese border to the Caspian, two operating crossings, and continuing investment in ports, fleet and rail; alternative routes may trim its share without displacing it. Azerbaijan's position is more secure still, because the main western routes bypassing Russia and Iran converge on its territory. Uzbekistan is the country to watch: "It has the largest population in the region and a developed manufacturing sector, and with CKU it is deliberately buying itself a transit role it didn't previously have." Kyrgyzstan gains strategic weight while accepting dependence on Chinese financing.
The word "race," in Epstein's view, misdescribes what is happening. "These states aren't simply fighting over a fixed volume of cargo; the more of them that become viable hubs, the more resilient the corridor becomes as a whole, and the more leverage the region gains collectively. Redundancy — spare routing capacity that guarantees reliability — is the main product being sold here."
Read the full article Azattyq Asia (Russian).
Joseph Epstein is DIrector of the Turan Research Center.