May 04, 2026
Independent - How Do We Understand the Negotiation Track Between Washington and Tehran? (Arabic)
Turan Research Center Director Joseph Epstein was quoted in Independent Arabia's analysis of the stalled U.S.–Iran negotiation track, alongside Crisis Group's Joost Hiltermann and other regional analysts. Epstein argued that Tehran is recycling the strategy it deployed under Obama and Biden — betting that Washington fears deeper entanglement and that President Trump will not risk higher gas prices before the midterms. He noted that while the Iranian regime markets itself as immune to economic pain through revolutionary will, "ideology doesn't pay the salaries of the bureaucrats who actually keep the state running."
Epstein assessed that Washington sees time on its side: a few more weeks of naval blockade pressure may force Iran to shut in wells, permanently degrading its oil revenue base. He characterized Tehran's negotiating posture as "essentially nostalgia" — an attempt to recreate the dynamics that produced the JCPOA in 2015 on the assumption that Trump shares his predecessors' appetite for a deal at any cost. That assumption, Epstein argued, misreads the moment: Trump has drawn clear red lines on the nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and proxy networks, and a political optic of "losing to Tehran" would be untenable for him. The decisive variable, in Epstein's reading, is not the calendar but the collapse of Iranian oil revenues — leverage Tehran cannot match.
Read the full article on the Independent (Arabic).
Joseph Epstein is Director of the Turan Research Center.