The war with Iran has diverted attention from Tehran’s regional policies, particularly the TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity) transit corridor. The strategic significance of this project is immeasurable. The finalization of the project depends on several other factors, including the amendment of the Armenian constitution, which hinges on Nikol Pashinyan’s victory in the upcoming June elections.
The importance of the Armenian elections is heightened because Russia and Iran intend to interfere specifically to hinder realization of the project. If the TRIPP is finalized, both Russia and Iran will suffer a significant setback to their influence in the Caucasus. With Armenia and Azerbaijan having signed a peace treaty, neither Iran nor Russia will be able to exploit conflict between the two South Caucasian nations.
Despite the war, Tehran will persist in its support for terrorism abroad and its disruptive policies in neighboring countries. Put simply, one should not assume that the Iranian regime won’t find time to meddle in Armenian domestic affairs because it has more pressing issues at home. This modus operandi is hardwired into Iran’s strategy of “Mosaic Defense”, namely that various operations, including terrorism and disruption, may continue even absent top command.
Read the full article on the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
Alex Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center.