In a February 24 interview in France — four days before the launch of the joint U.S.–Israel operation — Alexander Grinberg predicted that Washington would strike not only Iran's military infrastructure but also its senior military leadership. Speaking with Vozpópuli on March 15, he assessed the operation's unfolding logic, the likely death of Iran's new supreme leader, and the broader implications for Western security.
Below are key excerpts from the interview, translated from the original Spanish.
Is a diplomatic resolution to the conflict possible?
I don't believe so.
What are Israel's objectives in the Iran operation? And what about the United States?
For Israel, the objective is reached when Iran can no longer pose a threat. The military is destroying the regime's capabilities, because 7,000 ballistic missiles could theoretically saturate all of our air defense systems. For the Israeli government, we are close to that goal. But the U.S. naturally requires the normalization of energy conditions as well.
On Saturday, the U.S. struck Kharg Island to prevent Iran from controlling the Strait of Hormuz…
Yes, but the U.S. didn't target Iranian oil — it struck Iranian weapons on that strategic island. I believe this is preparation for a U.S. ground operation. While the strategic situation isn't dire, it matters because of Iran's capacity to spike global energy prices. Once the American military machine starts moving, it's impossible to stop. And many Arab countries now want Iran punished for attacks on their territory.
Is there a coherent strategy behind the coordinated strikes, or has the U.S. entered a war it doesn't know how to end?
No country reveals all its military objectives publicly. If we can understand the plan, so can the enemy. For example, early in the campaign, strikes hit sports stadiums. I didn't understand why until an Iranian contact explained that sports facilities serve as military assembly and training centers. Destroying them degraded the ability of military units to organize. And it's not only the strikes that are coordinated — the messaging is too. We see daily that statements from Trump and Netanyahu echo one another.
Trump has denied it multiple times, but he has also called for the fall of the Iranian regime. Is regime change really possible?
Regime change is possible, but it depends on the will of the Iranian people. There is a total disconnect between the Iranian people and their government. In the West and in Israel, we expect a formal process with a clear beginning and end. But I don't think it works that way in Iran, because this is an ideological regime that doesn't think long-term. The regime may not be destroyable with a single blow, but it can be stripped of its capacity to function — to govern or administer the country.
Trump and Netanyahu have repeatedly urged Iranians to rise up against their government. What could come next?
Right now I don't think an uprising is possible — it's dangerous to go out into the streets. We believe Iran is killing its own people with drones, because we see that some attacks within its territory are carried out with quadcopters, not the fixed-wing drones Israel uses. It's still not safe to take to the streets. Iranian society doesn't want this regime. They demonstrated en masse in January. The Iranian economy wasn't functioning before the February 28 strikes — inflation was already extremely high. There could even be a power vacuum for some time. But I cannot imagine a situation worse than one under this regime, which kills its own people.
There has been significant speculation about the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, and his absence from the media. What do you think?
I believe he died, or was so severely wounded that it would be impossible to show him on television. Iranian media initially said they would broadcast Khamenei's message but not his image. There is no photograph. If he had only been wounded as they claim, they would show him to make him look heroic.
From a security perspective, how would the end of the ayatollahs' regime affect the West?
We should not forget that Iran has far more Arab and Western blood on its hands than Jewish blood. It maintains alliances with criminal networks in France coordinating with Algeria, with narcotrafficking networks, with terrorist organizations worldwide — Hezbollah, networks across Latin America and Africa. If the Iranian regime falls, these networks will be significantly weakened.
Read the full interview on Voz Populi (Spanish).
Alexander Grinberg is a Senior Fellow at the Turan Research Center