Turan Research Center

Turan Research Center director Joseph Epstein was quoted at length by Independent Arabia in an analysis by Ahmed Abdel Hakim on whether the political track between Washington and Tehran has closed, as Pakistani- and Egyptian-backed mediation efforts struggle to restore talks that have not been held since the June memorandum of understanding collapsed.

Epstein located the core problem in how the two governments understand negotiation itself. "The two sides come to the table with opposing ideas about what it is for," he said. Tehran treats talks as a strategic instrument — a mechanism for extracting concessions and relieving pressure — rather than a route to settlement, while American practice runs in the opposite direction, on the assumption that talks are where problems get solved. That divergence accounts for most of what looks like dysfunction in the process. Trump, in his reading, understands this far better than his predecessors did, and is now using negotiations strategically as well.

The Iranian approach he described as long-established and tested: Tehran signals readiness to sign, extracts the maximum available concessions, and then, at the moment everything appears agreed, reopens settled clauses and declares the terms unacceptable in order to win another round. It worked well against the Obama and Biden administrations, he said, because neither had any appetite for confrontation. The Trump administration is harder to read, and Epstein rejected the common explanation that its policy tracks the president's mood. Different factions inside the administration take the lead at different moments with different objectives — a pattern visible in the handling of Ukraine. When Vice President JD Vance took charge of negotiations with both Russia and Iran, his approach rested on accommodation and failed in both cases, which pushed other voices and options forward. What distinguishes Trump, in Epstein's view, is rapid adaptation and an insistence on not signing an agreement he considers bad, which is why he halted the Vance track rather than letting it run.

On the current standoff, Epstein described a race over who absorbs the cost. "Both sides are trying to buy time, each convinced the other will break first," he said. Tehran is under real pressure from the economic blockade, and its calculation is that Washington's attention will move elsewhere before the Iranian economy gives way. Trump is watching oil and gas prices ahead of the midterm elections and has reasons to avoid shocking the global economy, so his assessment is that Iranian hardship is compounding faster than American political patience.

He was skeptical that the disputed files can be resolved without a fundamental shift on one side or the other, and neither government appears close to making one. Even if weeks of negotiation produced a text, the change in objectives that would make that text durable would still be missing — leaving either a dead end or a short-lived agreement that erodes as Tehran tests its limits. His expectation is that the conflict continues at lower intensity until something breaks: the Iranian economy, the regime's internal cohesion, or American political will to sustain the pressure.

Read the full interview on Independent Arabia (Arabic).

Joseph Epstein is Director of the Turan Research Center.