Turan Research Center

“Although we still don’t have a complete picture, it appears that the Israeli strikes have been highly successful. According to some Israeli intelligence assessments, they were even more effective than anticipated—especially since the initial wave of strikes targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, missile factories and platforms, as well as senior military and nuclear personnel. This would significantly constrain Iran’s ability to mount a major retaliatory response,” said Joseph Epstein, a Middle East analyst.

Epstein continued in his interview: “The scenes from the first Israeli strike on Iran reminded me of what happened with Hezbollah in Lebanon last year, when Jerusalem preemptively took out the top brass of Tehran’s most powerful regional ally. At the time, many expected Israel to face a furious response from Hezbollah that would cause unprecedented damage—but that didn’t happen. Israel had simultaneously destroyed major military and missile stockpiles, effectively neutralizing much of Hezbollah’s capacity for retaliation.”

He added, “We must remember that unlike the war in Gaza, which caught Israel’s military and security institutions by surprise, Israel has spent years preparing and planning for major operations against both Hezbollah and Iran. In the coming days, we’ll likely learn more about the extent of those preparations.”

Epstein concluded, “Still, Israeli officials quickly warned that Iran’s response could inflict serious damage. For now, Iran seems to be weighing two main options: continued salvos of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, or attempts to target Jewish and Israeli sites abroad. The key question in the hours and days ahead is whether the United States will intervene to defend Israel, as it has in the past.”

Read more on the Independent Arabic.